A Statistical Study on Characteristics of Disappearing Prominences

AbstractReal-time monitoring of filaments is essential for the prediction of their eruption and the ensuing coronal mass ejection (CME). We apply an automated algorithm for the detection and tracking of filaments in full-disc Hα images to obtain their physical attributes. This provides an accurate onset time of the eruption, and also allows us to study the physical characteristics of the erupting filaments in an objective manner.

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A statistical study of coronal mass ejection plasma flows

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/97ja03663 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 103 (A3) ◽

pp. 4761-4766 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

R. Goldstein ◽

M. Neugebauer ◽

D. Clay

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Plasma Flows ◽

Mass Ejection

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New extrapolation method for coronal mass ejection onset time estimation

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2005ja011098 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 110 (A7) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Y.-J. Moon

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Onset Time ◽

Time Estimation ◽

Extrapolation Method ◽

Mass Ejection

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Statistical study of coronal mass ejection source locations: Understanding CMEs viewed in coronagraphs

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2010ja016101 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 116 (A4) ◽

pp. n/a-n/a ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

Yuming Wang ◽

Caixia Chen ◽

Bin Gui ◽

Chenglong Shen ◽

Pinzhong Ye ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Mass Ejection

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Statistical study of coronal mass ejection source locations: 2. Role of active regions in CME production

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2011ja016844 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 116 (A12) ◽

pp. n/a-n/a ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Caixia Chen ◽

Yuming Wang ◽

Chenglong Shen ◽

Pinzhong Ye ◽

Jie Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Active Regions ◽

Mass Ejection

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Verification of real-time WSA−ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate ◽

10.1051/swsc/2018005 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. A17 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Alexandra M. Wold ◽

M. Leila Mays ◽

Aleksandre Taktakishvili ◽

Lan K. Jian ◽

Dusan Odstrcil ◽

...

Keyword(s):

False Alarm ◽

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Real Time ◽

Space Weather ◽

Prediction Error ◽

Arrival Time ◽

Model Verification ◽

Time Error ◽

Cone Model ◽

Mass Ejection

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)−ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA−ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA−ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of −4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014–December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

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Prominence Eruptions and Coronal Mass Ejection: A Statistical Study Using Microwave Observations

The Astrophysical Journal ◽

10.1086/367614 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 586 (1) ◽

pp. 562-578 ◽

Cited By ~ 227

Author(s):

N. Gopalswamy ◽

M. Shimojo ◽

W. Lu ◽

S. Yashiro ◽

K. Shibasaki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Mass Ejection

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Nowcasting of Solar Energetic Particle Events using near real-time Coronal Mass Ejection characteristics in the framework of the FORSPEF tool

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate ◽

10.1051/swsc/2018024 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. A37 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Athanasios Papaioannou ◽

Anastasios Anastasiadis ◽

Ingmar Sandberg ◽

Piers Jiggens

Keyword(s):

Coronal Mass Ejection ◽

Real Time ◽

Energetic Particle ◽

Solar Energetic Particle ◽

Probability Of Detection ◽

Angular Width ◽

Link Type ◽

Halo Cmes ◽

Mass Ejection ◽

Archived Data

In this work the derived occurrence probability of solar energetic particle (SEP) events (i.e. proton events measured at Earth’s position) and their peak fluxes and total fluences depending on coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters, i.e. linear speed (V) and the angular width (AW) are presented. A new SEP catalogue with associated CME data from 1997 to 2013 is utilized. It is found that the SEP probability strongly depends on the CME speed and the angular width as follows: The highest association (72.70%) is obtained for the full halo CMEs with V ≥ 1500 km s−1 and the lowest association (0.7%) is found for the non halo CMEs with 400 km s−1 ≤ V ≤ 1000 km s−1. The SEP occurrence probabilities are different as much as 26 times according to the CME speed (V), comparing fast versus slow CMEs and 44 times according to the AW, comparing halo to non halo CMEs. Furthermore, linear regressions of the proton peak flux and integral fluence at several integral energy channels (E > 10 MeV, E > 30 MeV, E > 60 MeV, E > 100 MeV) were obtained. Our results, were used to build a module of an operational forecasting tool (i.e. FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares – FORSPEF, http://tromos.space.noa.gr/forspef/). This module performs nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events using near real-time CME identifications obtained from CACTus (http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/). The outputs offered by the operational module of the tool to the end user (textural, pictorial, archived data) are presented. Finally, the validation of the system, in terms of archived data is described, in terms of categorical scores (Probability of Detection – POD and a False Alarm Rate – FAR).

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