Effects of Semistochastic Westerly Wind Bursts on ENSO Predictability

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiao Tan ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Tao Lian ◽  
Shouwen Zhang ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
...  
2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 2760-2768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Tziperman ◽  
Lisan Yu

Abstract The correlation between parameters characterizing observed westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific and the large-scale SST is analyzed using singular value decomposition. The WWB parameters include the amplitude, location, scale, and probability of occurrence for a given SST distribution rather than the wind stress itself. This approach therefore allows for a nonlinear relationship between the SST and the wind signal of the WWBs. It is found that about half of the variance of the WWB parameters is explained by only two large-scale SST modes. The first mode represents a developed El Niño event, while the second mode represents the seasonal cycle. More specifically, the central longitude of WWBs, their longitudinal extent, and their probability seem to be determined to a significant degree by the ENSO-driven signal. The amplitude of the WWBs is found to be strongly influenced by the phase of the seasonal cycle. It is concluded that the WWBs, while partially stochastic, seem an inherent part of the large-scale deterministic ENSO dynamics. Implications for ENSO predictability and prediction are discussed.


Weather ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 282-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Verbickas

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (17) ◽  
pp. 5549-5565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minmin Fu ◽  
Eli Tziperman

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) are brief, anomalously westerly winds in the tropical Pacific that play a role in the dynamics of ENSO through their forcing of ocean Kelvin waves. They have been associated with atmospheric phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the MJO, and convectively coupled Rossby waves, yet their basic mechanism is not yet well understood. We study WWBs using an aquaplanet general circulation model, and find that eastward-propagating convective heating plays a key role in the generation of model WWBs, consistent with previous studies. Furthermore, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) acts on a short time scale of about two days to dramatically amplify the model WWB winds near the peak of the event. On the other hand, it is found that radiation feedbacks (i.e., changes in the net radiative anomalies accompanying westerly wind bursts) are not essential for the development of WWBs, and act as a weak negative feedback on WWBs and their associated convection. Similarly, sensible surface heat flux anomalies are not found to have an effect on the development of model WWBs.


2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 885-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiao Tan ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Tao Lian ◽  
Zhixiong Yao ◽  
Xiaojing Li ◽  
...  

AbstractNumerous works have indicated that westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have a significant contribution to the development of El Niño events. However, the simulation of WWBs commonly suffers from large biases in the current generation of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), limiting our ability to predict El Niño events. In this study, we introduce a WWBs parameterization scheme into the global coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) to improve the representation of WWBs and to study the impacts of WWBs on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. It is found that CESM with the WWBs parameterization scheme can generate more realistic characteristics of WWBs, in particular their location and seasonal variation of occurrence. With the parameterized WWBs, the skewness of the Niño 3 index is increased, in better agreement with observation. Eastern Pacific El Niño and central Pacific El Niño events could be successfully reproduced in the model run with WWBs parameterization. Further diagnoses show that the enhanced horizontal advection in the central Pacific and vertical advection in the eastern Pacific, both of which are triggered by WWBs, are crucial factors responsible for the improvements in ENSO simulation. Clearly, WWBs have important effects on ENSO asymmetry and ENSO diversity.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (13) ◽  
pp. 4654-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shineng Hu ◽  
Alexey V. Fedorov ◽  
Matthieu Lengaigne ◽  
Eric Guilyardi

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