scholarly journals Children’s exploratory play tracks the discriminability of hypotheses

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Max H. Siegel ◽  
Rachel W. Magid ◽  
Madeline Pelz ◽  
Joshua B. Tenenbaum ◽  
Laura E. Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Testing Hypotheses ◽  
Exploration Time ◽  
Exploratory Play ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Perceptual Abilities

AbstractEffective curiosity-driven learning requires recognizing that the value of evidence for testing hypotheses depends on what other hypotheses are under consideration. Do we intuitively represent the discriminability of hypotheses? Here we show children alternative hypotheses for the contents of a box and then shake the box (or allow children to shake it themselves) so they can hear the sound of the contents. We find that children are able to compare the evidence they hear with imagined evidence they do not hear but might have heard under alternative hypotheses. Children (N = 160; mean: 5 years and 4 months) prefer easier discriminations (Experiments 1-3) and explore longer given harder ones (Experiments 4-7). Across 16 contrasts, children’s exploration time quantitatively tracks the discriminability of heard evidence from an unheard alternative. The results are consistent with the idea that children have an “intuitive psychophysics”: children represent their own perceptual abilities and explore longer when hypotheses are harder to distinguish.

The Relationship of Interrogative Suggestibility to Memory and Attention

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.C. Howard ◽  
A. Chaiwutikornwanich
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Short Story ◽  
Oddball Paradigm ◽  
Memory Processes ◽  
Memory And Attention ◽  
Irrelevant Distractors ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Visual Oddball Paradigm ◽  
Interrogative Suggestibility ◽  
Task Irrelevant

This study combined an individual differences approach to interrogative suggestibility (IS) with ERP recordings to examine two alternative hypotheses regarding the source of individual differences in IS: (1) differences in attention to task-relevant vis-à-vis task-irrelevant stimuli, and (2) differences in one or more memory processes, indexed by ERP old/new effects. Sixty-five female participants underwent an ERP recording during the 50 min interval between immediate and delayed recall of a short story. ERPs elicited by pictures that either related to the story (“old”), or did not relate to the story (“new”), were recorded using a three-stimulus visual oddball paradigm. ERP old/new effects were examined at selected scalp regions of interest at three post-stimulus intervals: early (250-350 ms), middle (350-700 ms), and late (700-1100 ms). In addition, attention-related ERP components (N1, P2, N2, and P3) evoked by story-relevant pictures, story-irrelevant pictures, and irrelevant distractors were measured from midline electrodes. Late (700-1100 ms) frontal ERP old/new differences reflected individual differences in IS, while early (250-350 ms) and middle latency (350-700 ms) ERP old/new differences distinguished good from poor performers in memory and oddball tasks, respectively. Differences in IS were not reflected in ERP indices of attention. Results supported an account of IS as reflecting individual differences in postretrieval memory processes.

Testing hypotheses about ordinal interactions: Simulations and further comments.

1989 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Strube ◽  
Philip Bobko
Keyword(s):  
Testing Hypotheses

Reply to Skousen and Aiuvalasit: On the Primacy of Archaeological Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-205
Author(s):  
A.J. White ◽  
Samuel E. Munoz ◽  
Sissel Schroeder ◽  
Lora R. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Archaeological Evidence ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Horseshoe Lake ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses

Skousen and Aiuvalasit critique our article on the post-Mississippian occupation of the Horseshoe Lake watershed (White et al. 2020) along two lines: (1) that our findings are not supported due to a lack of archaeological evidence, and (2) that we do not consider alternative hypotheses in explaining the lake's fecal stanol record. We first respond to the matter of fecal stanol deposition in Horseshoe Lake and then address the larger issue, the primacy of archaeological data in interpreting the past.

scholarly journals The Sampling Distribution of Disease-Associated Alleles

Genetics ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 147 (4) ◽  
pp. 1855-1861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Montgomery Slatkin ◽  
Bruce Rannala
Keyword(s):  
Low Frequency ◽  
Null Model ◽  
Sampling Distribution ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Size Standard ◽  
Birth Death

Abstract A theory is developed that provides the sampling distribution of low frequency alleles at a single locus under the assumption that each allele is the result of a unique mutation. The numbers of copies of each allele is assumed to follow a linear birth-death process with sampling. If the population is of constant size, standard results from theory of birth-death processes show that the distribution of numbers of copies of each allele is logarithmic and that the joint distribution of numbers of copies of k alleles found in a sample of size n follows the Ewens sampling distribution. If the population from which the sample was obtained was increasing in size, if there are different selective classes of alleles, or if there are differences in penetrance among alleles, the Ewens distribution no longer applies. Likelihood functions for a given set of observations are obtained under different alternative hypotheses. These results are applied to published data from the BRCA1 locus (associated with early onset breast cancer) and the factor VIII locus (associated with hemophilia A) in humans. In both cases, the sampling distribution of alleles allows rejection of the null hypothesis, but relatively small deviations from the null model can account for the data. In particular, roughly the same population growth rate appears consistent with both data sets.

scholarly journals Touching and hearing the shapes: How auditory angular and curved sounds influence proficiency in recognising tactile angle and curve shapes when experienced and inexperienced in using haptic touch

2021 ◽  
pp. 026461962110031
Author(s):  
Torø Graven ◽  
Clea Desebrock
Keyword(s):  
Curve Shape ◽  
Shape Information ◽  
Exploration Time

This study investigated whether adding auditory angular and curved sounds to tactile angle and curve shapes – one unspecified sound to one unspecified shape – positively influences the accuracy and exploration time in recognising tactile angles and curves when experienced and inexperienced in using haptic touch. A within-participant experiment was conducted, with two groups of participants: experienced and inexperienced in using haptic touch, and with two conditions: congruous (e.g., angle shape and angular sound) and incongruous (e.g., angle shape and curved sound) tactile and auditory shape information. Adding congruous auditory angular and curved sounds to tactile angle and curve shapes positively influences the accuracy in recognising tactile angles and curves both when experienced and inexperienced in using haptic touch, and the exploration time on correct recognitions when experienced. People integrate tactile and auditory (angle; curve) shape information and this improves their proficiency in recognising tactile angles and curves.

scholarly journals Distributions associated with simultaneous multiple hypothesis testing

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Yu ◽  
Daniel Zelterman
Keyword(s):  
Latent Variable ◽  
Power Analysis ◽  
Marginal Distribution ◽  
Multiple Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Family Wise Error Rate ◽  
Uniform Distributions ◽  
Multiple Hypothesis ◽  
The Family ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Cancer Studies

Abstract We develop the distribution for the number of hypotheses found to be statistically significant using the rule from Simes (Biometrika 73: 751–754, 1986) for controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER). We find the distribution of the number of statistically significant p-values under the null hypothesis and show this follows a normal distribution under the alternative. We propose a parametric distribution ΨI(·) to model the marginal distribution of p-values sampled from a mixture of null uniform and non-uniform distributions under different alternative hypotheses. The ΨI distribution is useful when there are many different alternative hypotheses and these are not individually well understood. We fit ΨI to data from three cancer studies and use it to illustrate the distribution of the number of notable hypotheses observed in these examples. We model dependence in sampled p-values using a latent variable. These methods can be combined to illustrate a power analysis in planning a larger study on the basis of a smaller pilot experiment.

scholarly journals ANEGMA: an automated negotiation model for e-markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pallavi Bagga ◽  
Nicola Paoletti ◽  
Bedour Alrayes ◽  
Kostas Stathis
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Automated Negotiation ◽  
Learning To Learn ◽  
Negotiation Model ◽  
Negotiation Strategies ◽  
Exploration Time ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Bilateral Negotiations ◽  
Time Required

AbstractWe present a novel negotiation model that allows an agent to learn how to negotiate during concurrent bilateral negotiations in unknown and dynamic e-markets. The agent uses an actor-critic architecture with model-free reinforcement learning to learn a strategy expressed as a deep neural network. We pre-train the strategy by supervision from synthetic market data, thereby decreasing the exploration time required for learning during negotiation. As a result, we can build automated agents for concurrent negotiations that can adapt to different e-market settings without the need to be pre-programmed. Our experimental evaluation shows that our deep reinforcement learning based agents outperform two existing well-known negotiation strategies in one-to-many concurrent bilateral negotiations for a range of e-market settings.

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