scholarly journals Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima

2016 ◽  
Vol 587 ◽  
pp. A150 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. Usoskin ◽  
Y. Gallet ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
G. A. Kovaltsov ◽  
G. Hulot
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Grand Minima

Prediction of upcoming grand episodes of solar activity

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (S340) ◽  
pp. 325-326
Author(s):  
G. L. Jayalekshmi ◽  
P. R. Prince
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Strong Magnetic Fields ◽  
Periodicity Analysis ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Grand Minima

AbstractSunspots are active regions on the surface of the Sun having strong magnetic fields. Activity level of the Sun shows long-time scale phenomena known as grand episodes-Grand maxima and Grand minima. Present study examines grand episodes shown by sunspot numbers (1090-2017), using methods of wavelet transform and sinusoidal regression. Time interval analysed includes two grand maxima and four grand minima. Interval in between grand episodes are regular oscillations. Phase changes found from periodicity analysis clearly show the presence of upcoming grand episodes. The forthcoming grand episodes are suggested to be two grand minima which are likely to occur between the years 2100-2160 and 2220-2300.

scholarly journals A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1879-1909 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Roth ◽  
F. Joos
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Production Model ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Modulation ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Instrumental Data ◽  
The Holocene

Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

scholarly journals The Solar Activity during the Holocene: Amplitude Variations of the Quasy-century and Quasi-two-century Solar Cycles

2004 ◽  
Vol 2004 (IAUS223) ◽  
pp. 705-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Komitov ◽  
Boncho Bonev ◽  
Kaloyan Penev ◽  
Stephano Sello
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The Holocene

scholarly journals Grand Minima of Solar Activity and the Mean-Field Dynamo

Solar Physics ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 254 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. Usoskin ◽  
D. Sokoloff ◽  
D. Moss
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Field Dynamo ◽  
Grand Minima

scholarly journals Grand minima of solar activity during the last millennia

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (S286) ◽  
pp. 372-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya G. Usoskin ◽  
Sami K. Solanki ◽  
Gennady A. Kovaltsov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Moderate Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Cosmogenic Isotope ◽  
Cyclic Variations ◽  
Grand Maximum ◽  
Grand Minima ◽  
Stellar Dynamo

AbstractIn this review we discuss the occurrence and statistical properties of Grand minima based on the available data covering the last millennia. In particular, we consider the historical record of sunspot numbers covering the last 400 years as well as records of cosmogenic isotopes in natural terrestrial archives, used to reconstruct solar activity for up to the last 11.5 millennia, i.e. throughout the Holocene. Using a reconstruction of solar activity from cosmogenic isotope data, we analyze statistics of the occurrence of Grand minima. We find that: the Sun spends about most of the time at moderate activity, 1/6 in a Grand minimum and some time also in a Grand maximum state; Occurrence of Grand minima is not a result of long-term cyclic variations but is defined by stochastic/chaotic processes; There is a tendency for Grand minima to cluster with the recurrence rate of roughly 2000-3000 years, with a weak ≈210-yr periodicity existing within the clusters. Grand minima occur of two different types: shorter than 100 years (Maunder-type) and long ≈150 years (Spörer-type). It is also discussed that solar cycles (most possibly not sunspots cycle) could exist during the Grand minima, perhaps with stretched length and asymmetric sunspot latitudinal distribution.These results set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models.

scholarly journals THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMA AND THE SOLAR DYNAMO

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 425-431
Author(s):  
JIE JIANG
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Dynamo ◽  
Grand Minima

Both the direct sunspot observations and the indirect solar activity proxies indicate the existences of the solar grand minima during which time the solar activities are greatly reduced. They are usually coincided with periods of lower-than-average global temperatures. The existences of the grand minima pose a challenge for the solar dynamo. The main features of the grand minima and the new dynamo models to explain their existences will be reviewed in the paper.

Stochastic Resonance could explain Recurrence of Grand Minima

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Albert ◽  
Simone Ulzega
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Stochastic Resonance ◽  
Intrinsic Noise ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Frequent Switching ◽  
Solar Magnetic Activity ◽  
Stochastic Time ◽  
Grand Minima

&lt;p&gt;Proxies of solar activity have revealed repeated Grand Minima that occur with a certain regularity associated with the well-known Gleissberg and S&amp;#252;ss/deVries cycles. These and other prominent cycles in the spectrum of solar activity are also seen in the spectrum of the planetary torque exerted on the solar tachocline, which has revived the hypothesis of a planetary influence on solar activity. It is not clear, however, how the extremely weak planetary forcing could influence the solar magnetic activity. Here, we suggest that stochastic resonance could explain the necessary amplification of the forcing and provide numerical evidence from stochastic time-delayed dynamo models. If the intrinsic noise of the solar dynamo allows for a frequent switching between active and quiescent stable states, tiny periodic forcings can be greatly amplified, provided the dynamo is poised close to a critical point. Such a forcing could be caused by a tidal modulation of the minimal magnetic field required for flux-tube buoyancy.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Holocene climate variability in north-eastern Italy: potential influence of the NAO and solar activity recorded by speleothem data

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1367-1383 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Scholz ◽  
S. Frisia ◽  
A. Borsato ◽  
C. Spötl ◽  
J. Fohlmeister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Stable Isotope ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. Here we present high-resolution stable isotope and lamina thickness profiles as well as radiocarbon data for the Holocene stalagmite ER 76 from Grotta di Ernesto (north-eastern Italy), which was dated by combined U-series dating and lamina counting. ER 76 grew between 8 ka (thousands of years before 2000 AD) and today, with a hiatus from 2.6 to 0.4 ka. Data from nine meteorological stations in Trentino show a significant influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on winter temperature and precipitation in the cave region. Spectral analysis of the stable isotope signals of ER 76 reveals significant peaks at periods of 110, 60–70, 40–50, 32–37 and around 25 a. Except for the cycle between 32 and 37 a all periodicities have corresponding peaks in power spectra of solar variability, and the 25-a cycle may correspond to NAO variability. This suggests that climate variability in northern Italy was influenced by both solar activity and the NAO during the Holocene. Six periods of warm winter climate in the cave region were identified. These are centred at 7.9, 7.4, 6.5, 5.5, 4.9 and 3.7 ka, and their duration ranges from 100 to 400 a. The two oldest warm phases coincide with the deposition of sapropel S1 in the Mediterranean Sea indicating that the climate in the cave region was influenced by this prominent pluvial phase in the Mediterranean area. For the younger warm phases it is difficult to establish a supra-regional climate pattern, and some of them may, thus, reflect regional climate variability. This highlights the complexity of regional and supra-regional scale Holocene climate patterns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document