The Solar Activity during the Holocene: Amplitude Variations of the Quasy-century and Quasi-two-century Solar Cycles

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

Download Full-text

Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/09596836211060487 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095968362110604

Author(s):

Maxim Ogurtsov ◽

Samuli Helama ◽

Risto Jalkanen ◽

Högne Jungner ◽

Markus Lindholm ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Western Siberia ◽

Climate System ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Activity Data ◽

The Past ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Northern Fennoscandia ◽

Solar Type

Fifteen proxy records of summer temperature in Fennoscandia, Northern Europe and in Yamal and Taymir Peninsulas (Western Siberia) were analyzed for the AD 1700–2000 period. Century-long (70–100 year) and quasi bi-decadal periodicities were found from proxy records representing different parts of Fennoscandia. Decadal variation was revealed in a smaller number of records. Statistically significant correlations were revealed between the timescale-dependent components of temperature variability and solar cycles of Schwabe (~11 year), Hale (~22 year), and Gleissberg (сentury-long) as recorded in solar activity data. Combining the results from our correlation analysis with the evidence of solar-climatic linkages over the Northern Fennoscandia obtained over the past 20 years suggest that there are two possible explanations for the obtained solar-proxy relations: (a) the Sun’s activity actually influences the climate variability in Northern Fennoscandia and in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere albeit the mechanism of such solar-climatic linkages are yet to be detailed; (b) the revealed solar-type periodicities result from natural instability of climate system and, in such a case, the correlations may appear purely by chance. Multiple lines of evidence support the first assumption but we note that the second one cannot be yet rejected. Guidelines for further research to elucidate this question are proposed including the Fisher’s combined probability test in the presence of solar signal in multiple proxy records.

Download Full-text

A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-17-585-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 17 (5) ◽

pp. 585-592 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

C. S. Quiroga Lombard ◽

P. Balenzuela ◽

H. Braun ◽

D. R. Chialvo

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Power Spectra ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Age ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

The Holocene ◽

De Vries ◽

Last Ice Age ◽

Paleoclimate Records ◽

Dominant Frequencies

Abstract. Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210) and 1470/17 (~86.5) years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

Download Full-text

Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research

Solar-Terrestrial Physics ◽

10.12737/stp-3220171 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 5-8

Author(s):

Линь Ганхуа ◽

Lin Ganghua ◽

Ван Сяо-Фань ◽

Wang Xiao Fan ◽

Ян Сяо ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Data Mining ◽

Solar Activity ◽

Space Weather ◽

Large Scale ◽

Abnormal Behavior ◽

Solar Chromosphere ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Data Set ◽

Related Research ◽

Data Mining Algorithms

This article introduces our ongoing project “Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research”. Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a timespan more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant progresses are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles.

Download Full-text

A Neural Network-Based TEC Model Capable of Reproducing Nighttime Winter Anomaly

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13224559 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 4559

Author(s):

Marjolijn Adolfs ◽

Mohammed Mainul Hoque

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Solar Activity ◽

Geomagnetic Latitude ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

High Solar Activity ◽

Electron Content ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Total Electron ◽

The Neural Network ◽

Winter Anomaly

With the availability of fast computing machines, as well as the advancement of machine learning techniques and Big Data algorithms, the development of a more sophisticated total electron content (TEC) model featuring the Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other effects is possible and is presented here. The NWA is visible in the Northern Hemisphere for the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere for the Asian longitude sector under solar minimum conditions. During the NWA, the mean ionization level is found to be higher in the winter nights compared to the summer nights. The approach proposed here is a fully connected neural network (NN) model trained with Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) data from the last two solar cycles. The day of year, universal time, geographic longitude, geomagnetic latitude, solar zenith angle, and solar activity proxy, F10.7, were used as the input parameters for the model. The model was tested with independent TEC datasets from the years 2015 and 2020, representing high solar activity (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) conditions. Our investigation shows that the root mean squared (RMS) deviations are in the order of 6 and 2.5 TEC units during HSA and LSA period, respectively. Additionally, NN model results were compared with another model, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM). We found that the neural network model outperformed the NTCM by approximately 1 TEC unit. More importantly, the NN model can reproduce the evolution of the NWA effect during low solar activity, whereas the NTCM model cannot reproduce such effect in the TEC variation.

Download Full-text

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

PHYSICS OF AURORAL PHENOMENA ◽

10.51981/2588-0039.2021.44.023 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

pp. 100-106

Author(s):

A.K. Singh ◽

◽

A. Bhargawa ◽

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

Cosmic Ray ◽

Occurrence Rate ◽

The Sun ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Lyman Alpha ◽

Rate Versus ◽

Alpha Index

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

Download Full-text

Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

Annales Geophysicae ◽

10.5194/angeo-22-2239-2004 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 22 (6) ◽

pp. 2239-2243 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

E. Echer ◽

N. R. Rigozo ◽

D. J. R. Nordemann ◽

L. E. A. Vieira

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Sunspot Number ◽

Confidence Level ◽

Spectral Characteristics ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Sine Series ◽

Maximum Peak ◽

Spectral Components ◽

Sunspot Series

Abstract. Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles 17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and 24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2 against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178

Download Full-text

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 1879-1909 ◽

Cited By ~ 70

Author(s):

R. Roth ◽

F. Joos

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Total Solar Irradiance ◽

Production Model ◽

High Solar Activity ◽

Solar Modulation ◽

Time Lags ◽

Instrumental Data ◽

The Holocene

Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Download Full-text

Breathing of heliospheric structures triggered by the solar-cycle activity

Annales Geophysicae ◽

10.5194/angeo-21-1303-2003 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 21 (6) ◽

pp. 1303-1313 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

K. Scherer ◽

H. J. Fahr

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Activity Cycle ◽

Periodic Variation ◽

Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽

Activity Period ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Interplanetary Physics ◽

Ram Pressure

Abstract. Solar wind ram pressure variations occuring within the solar activity cycle are communicated to the outer heliosphere as complicated time-variabilities, but repeating its typical form with the activity period of about 11 years. At outer heliospheric regions, the main surviving solar cycle feature is a periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure or momentum flow, as clearly recognized by observations of the VOYAGER-1/2 space probes. This long-periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure is modeled here through application of appropriately time-dependent inner boundary conditions within our multifluid code to describe the solar wind – interstellar medium interaction. As we can show, it takes several solar cycles until the heliospheric structures adapt to an average location about which they carry out a periodic breathing, however, lagged in phase with respect to the solar cycle. The dynamically active heliosphere behaves differently from a static heliosphere and especially shows a historic hysteresis in the sense that the shock structures move out to larger distances than explained by the average ram pressure. Obviously, additional energies are pumped into the heliosheath by means of density and pressure waves which are excited. These waves travel outwards through the interface from the termination shock towards the bow shock. Depending on longitude, the heliospheric sheath region memorizes 2–3 (upwind) and up to 6–7 (downwind) preceding solar activity cycles, i.e. the cycle-induced waves need corresponding travel times for the passage over the heliosheath. Within our multifluid code we also adequately describe the solar cycle variations in the energy distributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays, respectively. According to these results the distribution of these high energetic species cannot be correctly described on the basis of the actually prevailing solar wind conditions.Key words. Interplanetary physics (heliopause and solar wind termination; general or miscellaneous) – Space plasma physics (experimental and mathematical techniques)

Download Full-text

Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2011/543146 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2011 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jan-Erik Solheim ◽

Kjell Stordahl ◽

Ole Humlum

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Winter Temperature ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Temperature Variations ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Cent Level ◽

Cycle 24

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of °C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of °C.

Download Full-text