Shaken and Stirred: When Bond Meets Suess–de Vries and Gnevyshev–Ohl

We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.

Stochastic Resonance could explain Recurrence of Grand Minima

<p>Proxies of solar activity have revealed repeated Grand Minima that occur with a certain regularity associated with the well-known Gleissberg and Süss/deVries cycles. These and other prominent cycles in the spectrum of solar activity are also seen in the spectrum of the planetary torque exerted on the solar tachocline, which has revived the hypothesis of a planetary influence on solar activity. It is not clear, however, how the extremely weak planetary forcing could influence the solar magnetic activity. Here, we suggest that stochastic resonance could explain the necessary amplification of the forcing and provide numerical evidence from stochastic time-delayed dynamo models. If the intrinsic noise of the solar dynamo allows for a frequent switching between active and quiescent stable states, tiny periodic forcings can be greatly amplified, provided the dynamo is poised close to a critical point. Such a forcing could be caused by a tidal modulation of the minimal magnetic field required for flux-tube buoyancy.</p>

Towards a more reliable reconstruction of the historical solar variability: a more realistic description of solar ephemeral magnetic regions

<p>Solar irradiance is a crucial input to climate models, but its measurements are only available since 1978. The variability of solar irradiance on climate-relevant time-scales is caused by the competition between bright and dark features formed by the magnetic fields emerging on the solar surface. Thus, models have been developed that reconstruct past irradiance variability from proxies of the solar magnetic activity. The longest direct proxy is the sunspot number. The common problem of such reconstructions is, however, that while sunspots adequately describe the evolution of the active regions (ARs) (large bipolar regions hosting sunspots), the evolution of their smaller counterparts, the ephemeral regions (ERs), is not directly featured by sunspots. At the same time, these small regions are much more numerous and are believed to be the main source of the long-term irradiance changes, which are of special interest to climate models. We develop an improved description of the ephemeral region emergence taking different solar observational constraints into account. The model builds on the SATIRE-T model, in which the emergence of ARs is described by the sunspot number and the emergence of the ERs is linearly linked to that of ARs. The latter, however, implies that whenever the sunspot number drops to zero, no magnetic field emerges in the model. In the new model, the emergence of the ERs is no longer linked to sunspots linearly. Instead, ARs and ERs are considered to be parts of a single power-law size distribution of the emerging magnetic regions. This ensures that even in the absence of ARs (e.g., during the grand minima of solar activity), the emergence rate of ERs remains non-zero. In particular, the solar open magnetic flux reconstructed using this approach does not drop to zero during the Maunder minimum, in agreement with independent reconstructions from the cosmogenic isotope data. Such an improved description of the ERs will allow a better constraint on the maximum solar irradiance drop during grand minima events. This, in turn, will allow a better constraint on the potential solar forcing in the future.</p>

Grand Minima in a spherical non-kinematic α2Ω mean-field dynamo model

We present a non-kinematic axisymetric α2Ω mean-field dynamo model in which the complete α-tensor and mean differential rotation profile are both extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing cycling large-scale magnetic fields. The nonlinear backreaction of the Lorentz force on differential rotation is the only amplitude-limiting mechanism introduced in the mean-field model. We compare and contrast the amplitude modulation patterns characterizing this mean-field dynamo, to those already well-studied in the context of non-kinematic αΩ models using a scalar α-effect. As in the latter, we find that large quasi-periodic modulation of the primary cycle are produced at low magnetic Prandtl number (Pm), with the ratio of modulation period to the primary cycle period scaling inversely with Pm. The variations of differential rotation remain well within the bounds set by observed solar torsional oscillations. In this low-Pm regime, moderately supercritical solutions can also exhibit aperiodic Maunder Minimum-like periods of strongly reduced cycle amplitude. The inter-event waiting time distribution is approximately exponential, in agreement with solar activity reconstructions based on cosmogenic radioisotopes. Secular variations in low-latitude surface differential rotation during Grand Minima, as compared to epochs of normal cyclic behavior, are commensurate in amplitude with historical inferences based on sunspot drawings. Our modeling results suggest that the low levels of observed variations in the solar differential rotation in the course of the activity cycle may nonetheless contribute to, or perhaps even dominate, the regulation of the magnetic cycle amplitude.

Solar activity cycle of ∼200 yr from mediaeval Korean records and reconstructions of cosmogenic radionuclides

ABSTRACT We have investigated Korean records of naked-eye observations of sunspots and we have found evidence that implies a periodicity of about 200 yr. Adding Chinese records, we show that these historical naked-eye observations of sunspots have a similar periodicity. Recently, some authors have shown that there are no intrinsic periodicities except for the 11-yr cycle. We adopt a new approach called a samplogram to test the sampling stability of cycles in terms of power spectra and difference series. We show that the Suess/de Vries cycle of about 207 yr is a deterministic cycle of stochastic solar activity. Also, we show that occurrences of grand minima are not necessarily expected with the Suess/de Vries cycle and it is possible for double or multiple grand maxima to appear without a grand minimum within them.

Solar activity over nine millennia: A consistent multi-proxy reconstruction

Aims.The solar activity in the past millennia can only be reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide proxy records in terrestrial archives. However, because of the diversity of the proxy archives, it is difficult to build a homogeneous reconstruction. All previous studies were based on individual, sometimes statistically averaged, proxy datasets. Here we aim to provide a new consistent multi-proxy reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 9000 yr, using all available long-span datasets of10Be and14C in terrestrial archives.Methods.A new method, based on a Bayesian approach, was applied for the first time to solar activity reconstruction. A Monte Carlo search (using theχ2statistic) for the most probable value of the modulation potential was performed to match data from different datasets for a given time. This provides a straightforward estimate of the related uncertainties. We used six10Be series of different lengths (from 500–10 000 yr) from Greenland and Antarctica, and the global14C production series. The10Be series were resampled to match wiggles related to the grand minima in the14C reference dataset. The stability of the long data series was tested.Results.The Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) and the Antarctic EDML (EPICA Dronning Maud Land)10Be series diverge from each other during the second half of the Holocene, while the14C series lies in between them. A likely reason for the discrepancy is the insufficiently precise beryllium transport and deposition model for Greenland, which leads to an undercorrection of the GRIP series for the geomagnetic shielding effect. A slow 6–7 millennia variability with lows at ca. 5500 BC and 1500 AD in the long-term evolution of solar activity is found. Two components of solar activity can be statistically distinguished: the main component, corresponding to the “normal” moderate level, and a component corresponding to grand minima. A possible existence of a component representing grand maxima is indicated, but it cannot be separated from the main component in a statistically significant manner.Conclusions.A new consistent reconstruction of solar activity over the last nine millennia is presented with the most probable values of decadal sunspot numbers and their realistic uncertainties. Independent components of solar activity corresponding to the main moderate activity and the grand-minimum state are identified; they may be related to different operation modes of the dynamo.