scholarly journals Grand minima of solar activity during the last millennia

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (S286) ◽  
pp. 372-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya G. Usoskin ◽  
Sami K. Solanki ◽  
Gennady A. Kovaltsov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Moderate Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Cosmogenic Isotope ◽  
Cyclic Variations ◽  
Grand Maximum ◽  
Grand Minima ◽  
Stellar Dynamo

AbstractIn this review we discuss the occurrence and statistical properties of Grand minima based on the available data covering the last millennia. In particular, we consider the historical record of sunspot numbers covering the last 400 years as well as records of cosmogenic isotopes in natural terrestrial archives, used to reconstruct solar activity for up to the last 11.5 millennia, i.e. throughout the Holocene. Using a reconstruction of solar activity from cosmogenic isotope data, we analyze statistics of the occurrence of Grand minima. We find that: the Sun spends about most of the time at moderate activity, 1/6 in a Grand minimum and some time also in a Grand maximum state; Occurrence of Grand minima is not a result of long-term cyclic variations but is defined by stochastic/chaotic processes; There is a tendency for Grand minima to cluster with the recurrence rate of roughly 2000-3000 years, with a weak ≈210-yr periodicity existing within the clusters. Grand minima occur of two different types: shorter than 100 years (Maunder-type) and long ≈150 years (Spörer-type). It is also discussed that solar cycles (most possibly not sunspots cycle) could exist during the Grand minima, perhaps with stretched length and asymmetric sunspot latitudinal distribution.These results set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models.

Long-term Cyclic Variations of Prominences, Green and Red Coronae over Solar Cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Emission Lines ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Green Line ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The South ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
Cyclic Variations

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.

Long-term cyclic variations of prominences, green and red coronae over solar cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 201-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Cyclic Variations

scholarly journals LONG-TERM SOLAR VARIABILITY DEDUCED FROM CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC 14C PRODUCTION RATE

1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-482
Author(s):  
J. A. Otaola ◽  
G. Zenteno
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Production Rate ◽  
Power Spectral Analysis ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Future Period ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Power Spectral ◽  
Type Oscillation

A power spectral analysis of the atmospheric 14C production rate (300-1900 AD) has yielded evidence of the existence of supersecular oscillations in solar activity.  The significance and stability of these oscillations is tested by reproducing the historical record.  The results of a projection into a future period show that a new Spörer type oscillation, similar to that occurred in the 15th century, will probably occur again around the year A. D. 2300.

Periodic Variation of the North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity Phenomena

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 173-176
Author(s):  
V. K. Verma
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Periodic Variation ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The North ◽  
Sunspot Data ◽  
Flare Index ◽  
North And South ◽  
South Asymmetry

AbstractWe report here a study of various solar activity phenomena occurring in both north and south hemispheres of the Sun during solar cycles 8–23. In the study we have used sunspot data for the period 1832–1976, flare index data for the period 1936–1993, Hα flare data 1993–1998 and solar active prominences data for the period 1957–1998. Earlier Verma reported long-term cyclic period in N-S asymmetry and also that the N-S asymmetry of solar activity phenomena during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 will be south dominated and the N-S asymmetry will shift to north hemisphere in solar cycle 25. The present study shows that the N-S asymmetry during solar cycles 22 and 23 are southern dominated as suggested by Verma.

Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (S340) ◽  
pp. 321-322
Author(s):  
Volkan Sarp ◽  
Ali Kılçık
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Nonlinear Prediction ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Prediction Approach ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractSolar activity is a chaotic process and there are various approximations to forecast its long term and short term variations. But there is no prediction method that predicts the solar activity exactly. In this study, a nonlinear prediction approach was applied to international sunspot numbers and performance of predictions was tested for the last 5 solar cycles. These predictions are in good agreement with observed values of the tested solar cycles. According to these results, end of cycle 24 is expected at February, 2020 with 7.7 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and maximum of cyle 25 is expected at May, 2024 with 119.6 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number.

scholarly journals Solar activity over nine millennia: A consistent multi-proxy reconstruction

2018 ◽  
Vol 615 ◽  
pp. A93 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Wu ◽  
I. G. Usoskin ◽  
N. Krivova ◽  
G. A. Kovaltsov ◽  
M. Baroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Shielding Effect ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Moderate Activity ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Monte Carlo Search ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Main Component ◽  
Grand Minima

Aims.The solar activity in the past millennia can only be reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide proxy records in terrestrial archives. However, because of the diversity of the proxy archives, it is difficult to build a homogeneous reconstruction. All previous studies were based on individual, sometimes statistically averaged, proxy datasets. Here we aim to provide a new consistent multi-proxy reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 9000 yr, using all available long-span datasets of10Be and14C in terrestrial archives.Methods.A new method, based on a Bayesian approach, was applied for the first time to solar activity reconstruction. A Monte Carlo search (using theχ2statistic) for the most probable value of the modulation potential was performed to match data from different datasets for a given time. This provides a straightforward estimate of the related uncertainties. We used six10Be series of different lengths (from 500–10 000 yr) from Greenland and Antarctica, and the global14C production series. The10Be series were resampled to match wiggles related to the grand minima in the14C reference dataset. The stability of the long data series was tested.Results.The Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) and the Antarctic EDML (EPICA Dronning Maud Land)10Be series diverge from each other during the second half of the Holocene, while the14C series lies in between them. A likely reason for the discrepancy is the insufficiently precise beryllium transport and deposition model for Greenland, which leads to an undercorrection of the GRIP series for the geomagnetic shielding effect. A slow 6–7 millennia variability with lows at ca. 5500 BC and 1500 AD in the long-term evolution of solar activity is found. Two components of solar activity can be statistically distinguished: the main component, corresponding to the “normal” moderate level, and a component corresponding to grand minima. A possible existence of a component representing grand maxima is indicated, but it cannot be separated from the main component in a statistically significant manner.Conclusions.A new consistent reconstruction of solar activity over the last nine millennia is presented with the most probable values of decadal sunspot numbers and their realistic uncertainties. Independent components of solar activity corresponding to the main moderate activity and the grand-minimum state are identified; they may be related to different operation modes of the dynamo.

A Study of Long-Term Solar Activity at 37 GHz

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kallunki ◽  
N. Lavonen ◽  
E. Järvelä ◽  
M. Uunila
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Radio ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Radio Observatory ◽  
The Public ◽  
Radio Map

AbstractIn this paper we investigate the solar activity at the radio frequency (37 GHz) using an extensive data series (solar radio maps) from the Metsähovi Radio Observatory. This paper aims to present this unique solar radio map collection to the public knowledge. The data set covers the years from 1978 to 2011 (solar cycles 21–24). We investigate the long-term solar activity on the ground of the distribution of solar radio brightenings and the differential rotation of the Sun.

scholarly journals Holocene vegetation patterns in southern Lithuania indicate astronomical forcing on the millennial and centennial time scales

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrej Spiridonov ◽  
Lauras Balakauskas ◽  
Robertas Stankevič ◽  
Gražyna Kluczynska ◽  
Laura Gedminienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Outer Space ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Periodic Patterns ◽  
Physical Forcing ◽  
Compositional Diversity ◽  
Diversity Estimates

Abstract The Earth’s biota originated and developed to its current complex state through interacting with multilevel physical forcing of our planet’s climate and near and outer space phenomena. In the present study, we focus on the time scale of hundreds to thousands of years in the most recent time interval – the Holocene. Using a pollen paleocommunity dataset from southern Lithuania (Čepkeliai bog) and applying spectral analysis techniques, we tested this record for the presence of statistically significant cyclicities, which can be observed in past solar activity. The time series of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) scores, which in our case are assumed to reflect temperature variations, and Tsallis entropy-related community compositional diversity estimates q* revealed the presence of cycles on several time scales. The most consistent periodicities are characterized by periods lasting between 201 and 240 years, which is very close to the DeVries solar cycles (208 years). A shorter-term periodicity of 176 years was detected in the NMDS scores that can be putatively linked to the subharmonics of the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, periodicities of ≈3,760 and ≈1,880 years were found in both parameters. These periodic patterns could be explained either as originating as a harmonic nonlinear response to precession forcing, or as resulting from the long-term solar activity quasicycles that were reported in previous studies of solar activity proxies.

Heliospheric Modulation of Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity during Solar Cycles 22-24

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (S340) ◽  
pp. 147-148
Author(s):  
Prithvi Raj Singh ◽  
C. M. Tiwari ◽  
A. K. Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Radio Flux ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Cosmic Ray Intensity ◽  
Solar Radio Flux ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Monthly Variations

AbstractWe have studied, the relationship between monthly variations of average counting rates of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) at Moscow super neutron monitoring station with mid cut-off rigidities (~2.42 GV), and the solar radio flux at 10.7cm (F10.7) and sunspot number (SSN) during the solar cycles 22 − 24. The F10.7cm (2800 MHz) and SSN is an excellent indicator of solar activity for the study period. We have investigated the patterns of long-term and mid-term periodicities of SSN and F10.7, using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique. We have observed the time-lag between ascending phase of CRI with F10.7cm and SSN during solar cycles 22 − 24.

scholarly journals Historical records of solar grand minima: a review

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (S286) ◽  
pp. 383-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Vaquero
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Recent Progress ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Naked Eye ◽  
Solar Diameter ◽  
Grand Minimum ◽  
The Past ◽  
Grand Minima

AbstractKnowing solar activity during the past centuries is of great interest for many purposes. Historical documents can help us to know about the behaviour of the Sun during the last centuries. The observation of aurorae and naked-eye sunspots provides us with continuous information through the last few centuries that can be used to improve our knowledge of the long-term solar activity including solar Grand Minima. We have more or less detailed information on only one Grand minimum (the Maunder minimum in the second half of 17th century), which serves as an archetype for Grand minima in general. Telescopic sunspot records and measurements of solar diameter during Maunder minimum are available. In this contribution, I review some recent progress on these issues.

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