Solar-wind predictions for the Parker Solar Probe orbit

Context. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; formerly Solar Probe Plus) mission will be humanitys first in situ exploration of the solar corona with closest perihelia at 9.86 solar radii (R⊙) distance to the Sun. It will help answer hitherto unresolved questions on the heating of the solar corona and the source and acceleration of the solar wind and solar energetic particles. The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for PSPs unprecedented distances in its prime mission phase during the years 2018 to 2025. The study is performed within the Coronagraphic German And US SolarProbePlus Survey (CGAUSS) which is the German contribution to the PSP mission as part of the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe.Aim. We present an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere which is derived from OMNI and Helios data. The German-US space probes Helios 1 and Helios 2 flew in the 1970s and observed solar wind in the ecliptic within heliocentric distances of 0.29 au to 0.98 au. The OMNI database consists of multi-spacecraft intercalibrated in situ data obtained near 1 au over more than five solar cycles. The international sunspot number (SSN) and its predictions are used to derive dependencies of the major solar-wind parameters on solar activity and to forecast their properties for the PSP mission.Methods. The frequency distributions for the solar-wind key parameters, magnetic field strength, proton velocity, density, and temperature, are represented by lognormal functions. In addition, we consider the velocity distributions bi-componental shape, consisting of a slower and a faster part. Functional relations to solar activity are compiled with use of the OMNI data by correlating and fitting the frequency distributions with the SSN. Further, based on the combined data set from both Helios probes, the parameters frequency distributions are fitted with respect to solar distance to obtain power law dependencies. Thus an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere confined to the ecliptic region is derived, accounting for solar activity and for solar distance through adequate shifts of the lognormal distributions. Finally, the inclusion of SSN predictions and the extrapolation down to PSPs perihelion region enables us to estimate the solar-wind environment for PSPs planned trajectory during its mission duration.Results. The CGAUSS empirical solar-wind model for PSP yields dependencies on solar activity and solar distance for the solar-wind parameters’ frequency distributions. The estimated solar-wind median values for PSPs first perihelion in 2018 at a solar distance of 0.16 au are 87 nT, 340 km s−1, 214 cm−3, and 503 000 K. The estimates for PSPs first closest perihelion, occurring in 2024 at 0.046 au (9.86 R⊙), are 943 nT, 290 km s−1, 2951 cm−3, and 1 930 000 K. Since the modeled velocity and temperature values below approximately 20 R⊙appear overestimated in comparison with existing observations, this suggests that PSP will directly measure solar-wind acceleration and heating processes below 20 R⊙ as planned.

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Large-scale electron solar wind parameters of the inner heliosphere with Parker Solar Probe/FIELDS

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18573 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Karine Issautier ◽

Mingzhe Liu ◽

Michel Moncuquet ◽

Nicole Meyer-Vernet ◽

Milan Maksimovic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Large Scale ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Solar Wind Speed ◽

The Sun ◽

Solar Wind Parameters ◽

Power Law Index ◽

Probe Mission ◽

Inner Heliosphere

<p>We present in situ properties of electron density and temperature in the inner heliosphere obtained during the three first solar encounters at 35 solar radii of the Parker Solar Probe mission. These preliminary results, recently shown by Moncuquet et al., ApJS, 2020, are obtained from the analysis of the plasma quasi-thermal noise (QTN) spectrum measured by the radio RFS/FIELDS instrument along the trajectories extending between 0.5 and 0.17 UA from the Sun, revealing different states of the emerging solar wind, five months apart. The temperature of the weakly collisional core population varies radially with a power law index of about -0.8, much slower than adiabatic, whereas the temperature of the supra-thermal population exhibits a much flatter radial variation, as expected from its nearly collisionless state. These measured temperatures are close to extrapolations towards the Sun of Helios measurements.</p><p>We also present a statistical study from these in situ electron solar wind parameters, deduced by QTN spectroscopy, and compare the data to other onboard measurements. In addition, we focus on the large-scale solar wind properties. In particular, from the invariance of the energy flux, a direct relation between the solar wind speed and its density can be deduced, as we have already obtained based on Wind continuous in situ measurements (Le Chat et al., Solar Phys., 2012). We study this anti-correlation during the three first solar encounters of PSP.</p>

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Assessment of CESE-HLLD ambient solar wind model results using multipoint observation

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate ◽

10.1051/swsc/2020048 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 ◽

pp. 44

Author(s):

Huichao Li ◽

Xueshang Feng ◽

Fengsi Wei

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Ecliptic Plane ◽

Statistical Characteristics ◽

Slow Solar Wind ◽

Wind Model ◽

Field Polarity ◽

Solar Wind Model ◽

Ambient Solar Wind

For a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics solar wind model, it is necessary to carry out assessment studies to reveal its ability and limitation. In this paper, the ambient solar wind results of year 2008 generated by the CESE-HLLD 3D MHD model are compared with multipoint in-situ measurements during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. The near-ecliptic results are assessed both quantitatively and qualitatively by comparing with in-situ data obtained at the L1 point and by the twin STEREO spacecraft. The assessment reveals the model’s ability in reproducing the time series and statistical characteristics of solar wind parameters, and in catching the change of interplanetary magnetic field polarity and the occurrence of the stream interaction regions. We find that the two-stream structure observed near the ecliptic plane is reproduced, but the differences among observations at L1 and the twin STEREO spacecraft are not caught by the model. The latitudinal variation of the results is assessed by comparing with the Ulysses observation. The characters of variation in different latitudinal ranges are duplicated by the model, but biases of the results are seen, and the boundary layers between fast and slow solar wind are sometimes thicker than observation.

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