scholarly journals Assessment of CESE-HLLD ambient solar wind model results using multipoint observation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Huichao Li ◽  
Xueshang Feng ◽  
Fengsi Wei
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ecliptic Plane ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Slow Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Field Polarity ◽  
Solar Wind Model ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

For a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics solar wind model, it is necessary to carry out assessment studies to reveal its ability and limitation. In this paper, the ambient solar wind results of year 2008 generated by the CESE-HLLD 3D MHD model are compared with multipoint in-situ measurements during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. The near-ecliptic results are assessed both quantitatively and qualitatively by comparing with in-situ data obtained at the L1 point and by the twin STEREO spacecraft. The assessment reveals the model’s ability in reproducing the time series and statistical characteristics of solar wind parameters, and in catching the change of interplanetary magnetic field polarity and the occurrence of the stream interaction regions. We find that the two-stream structure observed near the ecliptic plane is reproduced, but the differences among observations at L1 and the twin STEREO spacecraft are not caught by the model. The latitudinal variation of the results is assessed by comparing with the Ulysses observation. The characters of variation in different latitudinal ranges are duplicated by the model, but biases of the results are seen, and the boundary layers between fast and slow solar wind are sometimes thicker than observation.

scholarly journals Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Space Weather ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Bailey ◽  
M. A. Reiss ◽  
C. N. Arge ◽  
C. Möstl ◽  
C. J. Henney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Solar Wind Model ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

scholarly journals A Model for Coronal Inflows and In/Out Pairs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
White Light ◽  
Mass Density ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Slow Solar Wind ◽  
Intrinsic Variability ◽  
Density Depletion ◽  
In Situ Observations

<div> <div> <div> <p>We present a three-dimensional (3D) numerical magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model of the white-light coronagraph observational phenomena known as coronal inflows and in/out pairs. Coronal inflows in the LASCO/C2 field of view (approximately 2–6 Rs) were thought to arise from the dynamic and intermittent release of solar wind plasma associated with the helmet streamer belt as the counterpart to outward-propagating streamer blobs, formed by magnetic reconnection. The MHD simulation results show relatively narrow lanes of density depletion form high in the corona and propagate inward with sinuous motion that has been characterized as "tadpole-like" in coronagraph imagery. The height–time evolution and velocity profiles of the simulation inflows and in/out pairs are compared to their corresponding observations and a detailed analysis of the underlying magnetic field structure associated with the synthetic white-light and mass density evolution is presented. Understanding the physical origin of this structured component of the slow solar wind’s intrinsic variability could make a significant contribution to solar wind modeling and the interpretation of remote and in situ observations from Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.</p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Solar-wind predictions for the Parker Solar Probe orbit

2018 ◽  
Vol 611 ◽  
pp. A36 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Venzmer ◽  
V. Bothmer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Corona ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Wind Environment ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Solar Wind Model ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters ◽  
Inner Heliosphere

Context. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; formerly Solar Probe Plus) mission will be humanitys first in situ exploration of the solar corona with closest perihelia at 9.86 solar radii (R⊙) distance to the Sun. It will help answer hitherto unresolved questions on the heating of the solar corona and the source and acceleration of the solar wind and solar energetic particles. The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for PSPs unprecedented distances in its prime mission phase during the years 2018 to 2025. The study is performed within the Coronagraphic German And US SolarProbePlus Survey (CGAUSS) which is the German contribution to the PSP mission as part of the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe.Aim. We present an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere which is derived from OMNI and Helios data. The German-US space probes Helios 1 and Helios 2 flew in the 1970s and observed solar wind in the ecliptic within heliocentric distances of 0.29 au to 0.98 au. The OMNI database consists of multi-spacecraft intercalibrated in situ data obtained near 1 au over more than five solar cycles. The international sunspot number (SSN) and its predictions are used to derive dependencies of the major solar-wind parameters on solar activity and to forecast their properties for the PSP mission.Methods. The frequency distributions for the solar-wind key parameters, magnetic field strength, proton velocity, density, and temperature, are represented by lognormal functions. In addition, we consider the velocity distributions bi-componental shape, consisting of a slower and a faster part. Functional relations to solar activity are compiled with use of the OMNI data by correlating and fitting the frequency distributions with the SSN. Further, based on the combined data set from both Helios probes, the parameters frequency distributions are fitted with respect to solar distance to obtain power law dependencies. Thus an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere confined to the ecliptic region is derived, accounting for solar activity and for solar distance through adequate shifts of the lognormal distributions. Finally, the inclusion of SSN predictions and the extrapolation down to PSPs perihelion region enables us to estimate the solar-wind environment for PSPs planned trajectory during its mission duration.Results. The CGAUSS empirical solar-wind model for PSP yields dependencies on solar activity and solar distance for the solar-wind parameters’ frequency distributions. The estimated solar-wind median values for PSPs first perihelion in 2018 at a solar distance of 0.16 au are 87 nT, 340 km s−1, 214 cm−3, and 503 000 K. The estimates for PSPs first closest perihelion, occurring in 2024 at 0.046 au (9.86 R⊙), are 943 nT, 290 km s−1, 2951 cm−3, and 1 930 000 K. Since the modeled velocity and temperature values below approximately 20 R⊙appear overestimated in comparison with existing observations, this suggests that PSP will directly measure solar-wind acceleration and heating processes below 20 R⊙ as planned.

Prediction of CME arrivals; differences based on stereoscopic heliospheric imager data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Hinterreiter ◽  
Tanja Amerstorfer ◽  
Martin A. Reiss ◽  
Manuela Temmer ◽  
Christian Möstl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Ecliptic Plane ◽  
Essential Factor ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Event Prediction ◽  
Vantage Points ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind ◽  
Heliospheric Imager

<p>Forecasting the arrival time and speed of CMEs is of high importance. However, uncertainties in the forecasts are high. We present the results of post-event prediction of CME arrivals using ELEvoHI (ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations) ensemble modeling. The model uses time-elongation profiles provided by HI (Heliospheric Imager) onboard STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) and assumes an elliptical shape of the CME front. The drag force exerted by the ambient solar wind is an essential factor influencing the dynamic evolution of CMEs in the heliosphere. To account for this effect, ELEvoHI utilizes the modeled ambient solar wind provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012, which show clear signatures in STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI images, have a corresponding in-situ signature, and propagate close to the ecliptic plane. As input to ELEvoHI, we make use of STEREO-A and STEREO-B time-elongation profiles for each CME and compare the predicted arrival times and speeds based on both vantage points with each other. We present our model results and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the arrival times of up to 15 hours.</p>

scholarly journals Observations of recurrent cosmic ray decreases during solar cycles 22 and 23

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3127-3138 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Dunzlaff ◽  
B. Heber ◽  
A. Kopp ◽  
O. Rother ◽  
R. Müller-Mellin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Coronal Hole ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Slow Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Field Polarity ◽  
Apparent Contradiction

Abstract. During solar cycle 22, the modulation of several hundred MeV galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) by recurrent and transient cosmic ray decreases was observed by the Ulysses spacecraft on its descent towards the solar south pole. In solar cycle 23, Ulysses repeated this trajectory segment during a similar phase of the solar cycle, but with opposite heliospheric magnetic field polarity. Since cosmic ray propagation in the heliosphere should depend on drift effects, we determine in this study the latitudinal distribution of the amplitude of recurrent cosmic ray decreases in solar cycles 22 and 23. As long as we measure the recurrent plasma structures in situ, we find that these decreases behave nearly the same in both cycles. Measurements in the fast solar wind, however, show differences: in cycle 22 (A>0) the recurrent cosmic ray decreases show a clear maximum near 25° and are still present beyond 40°, whereas we see in cycle 23 (A<0) neither such a pronounced maximum nor significant decreases above 40°. In other words: the periodicity in the cosmic ray intensity, which can be clearly seen in the slow solar wind, appears to vanish there. Theoretical models for drift effects, however, predict quite the opposite behaviour for the two solar cycles. To closer investigate this apparent contradiction, we first put the visual inspection of the data onto a more solid basis by performing a detailed Lomb (spectral) analysis. The next step consists of an analysis of the resulting periodicities at 1 AU in order to distinguish between spatial and temporal variations, so that we can obtain statements about the question in how far there is a correlation between the in-situ data at 1 AU and those measured by Ulysses at larger latitudes. We find a good correlation being present during cycle 22, but not for cycle 23. As one potential explanation for this behaviour, we suggest the difference in the coronal hole structures between the cycles 22 and 23 due to a large, stable coronal hole structure, which is present during cycle 22, but not in cycle 23. We support this possibility by comparing Yohkoh SXT and SOHO EIT maps.

scholarly journals Latitudinal extent of large-scale structures in the solar wind

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1331-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. Elliott ◽  
D. J. McComas ◽  
P. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Coronal Holes ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Ecliptic Plane ◽  
Plasma Parameters ◽  
Field Polarity ◽  
Interplanetary Physics ◽  
Hydrodynamic Code

Abstract. Comparison of solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft, in the ecliptic plane at ~ 1 AU, and the Ulysses spacecraft as it orbits over the Sun’s poles, provides valuable information about the latitudinal extent and variation of solar wind structures in the heliosphere. While qualitative comparisons can be made using average properties observed at these two locations, the comparison of specific, individual structures requires a procedure to determine if a given structure has been observed by both spacecraft. We use a 1-D hydrodynamic code to propagate ACE plasma measurements out to the distance of Ulysses and adjust for the differing longitudes of the ACE and Ulysses spacecraft. In addition to comparing the plasma parameters and their characteristic profiles, we examine suprathermal electron measurements and magnetic field polarity to help determine if the same features are encountered at both ACE and Ulysses. The He I l 1083 nm coronal hole maps are examined to understand the global structure of the Sun during the time of our heliospheric measurements. We find that the same features are frequently observed when both spacecraft are near the ecliptic plane. Stream structures derived from smaller coronal holes during the rising phase of solar cycle 23 persists over 20°–30° in heliolatitude, consistent with their spatial scales back at the Sun.Key words. Interplanetary physics (solar wind plasma)

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