Passenger Flow Prediction Model of the Newly Constructed Urban Rail Transit Line

Author(s):  
Zhipeng Wang
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Liying Sui ◽  
Min Zhou ◽  
Hairong Dong

AbstractShort-term passenger flow prediction in urban rail transit plays an important role because it in-forms decision-making on operation scheduling. However, passenger flow prediction is affected by many factors. This study uses the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector machines (SVM) to establish a traffic flow prediction model. The model is built using intelligent data provided by a large-scale urban traffic flow warning system, such as accurate passenger flow data, collected using the Internet of things and sensor networks. The model proposed in this paper can adapt to the complexity, nonlinearity, and periodicity of passenger flow in urban rail transit. Test results on a Beijing traffic dataset show that the SARI-MA–SVM model can improve accuracy and reduce errors in traffic prediction. The obtained pre-diction fits well with the measured data. Therefore, the SARIMA–SVM model can fully charac-terize traffic variations and is suitable for passenger flow prediction.


Author(s):  
Xin Yang ◽  
Qiuchi Xue ◽  
Xingxing Yang ◽  
Haodong Yin ◽  
Yunchao Qu ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 05 (04) ◽  
pp. 227-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Li ◽  
Yong Qin ◽  
Ziyang Wang ◽  
Zhongxin Zhao ◽  
Minghui Zhan ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 433-435 ◽  
pp. 612-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Xia ◽  
Fan Yu Kong ◽  
Song Yuan Xie

This study analyses and compares several forecast methods of urban rail transit passenger flow, and indicates the necessity of forecasting short-term passenger flow. Support vector regression is a promising method for the forecast of passenger flow because it uses a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is based on the structural risk minimization principle. In this paper, the prediction model of urban rail transit passenger flow is constructed. Through the comparison with BP neural networks forecast methods, the experimental results show that applying this method in URT passenger flow forecasting is feasible and it provides a promising alternative to passenger flow prediction.


2012 ◽  
Vol 253-255 ◽  
pp. 1995-2000
Author(s):  
Qiao Mei Tang ◽  
Li Ping Shen ◽  
Xian Yong Tang

large passenger flow is a common condition of urban transit operation, and the station bears the pressure of large passenger flow directly. This paper analyzes the reason for the appearance of large passenger flow and the characteristics of it, discusses the principles and methods that the station can apply under large passenger flow combined with the passenger’s transport process and the operation process.


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