LSTM Based Architecture for Short-Term Metro Passenger Flow Prediction

CICTP 2020 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunshi Long ◽  
Liang Zou
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction

scholarly journals Short-Term Abnormal Passenger Flow Prediction Based on the Fusion of SVR and LSTM

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 42946-42955 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianyuan Guo ◽  
Zhen Xie ◽  
Yong Qin ◽  
Limin Jia ◽  
Yaguan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction

scholarly journals Short-Term Origin-Destination Based Metro Flow Prediction with Probabilistic Model Selection Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Dai ◽  
Lijun Sun ◽  
Yanyan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Smart Card ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Smart Card Data

Reliable prediction of short-term passenger flow could greatly support metro authorities’ decision processes, help passengers to adjust their travel schedule, or, in extreme cases, assist emergency management. The inflow and outflow of the metro station are strongly associated with the travel demand within metro networks. The purpose of this paper is to obtain such prediction. We first collect the origin-destination information from the smart-card data and explore the passenger flow patterns in a metro system. We then propose a data driven framework for short-term metro passenger flow prediction with the ability to utilize both spatial and temporal related information. The approach adopts two forecasts as basic models and then uses a probabilistic model selection method, random forest classification, to combine the two outputs to achieve a better forecast. In the experiments, we compare the proposed model with four other prediction models, i.e., autoregressive-moving-average, neural networks, support vector regression, and averaging ensemble model, as well as the basic models. The results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms the others in most cases. The origin-destination flows extracted from smart-card data can be successfully exploited to describe different metro travel patterns. And the framework proposed here, especially the probabilistic combination method, can improve the performance of short-term transportation prediction.

THE USE OF LS-SVM FOR SHORT-TERM PASSENGER FLOW PREDICTION / MAŽIAUSIŲ KVADRATŲ ATRAMINIŲ VEKTORIŲ METODO TAIKYMAS TRUMPALAIKIAM KELEIVIŲ SRAUTUI PROGNOZUOTI / ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ МЕТОДА ОПОРНЫХ ВЕКТОРОВ С КВАДРАТИЧНОЙ ФУНКЦИЕЙ ПОТЕРЬ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ КРАТКОСРОЧНЫХ ПОТОКОВ ПАССАЖИРОВ

Transport ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Chen ◽  
Wenquan Li ◽  
Jinhuan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Transit Flow ◽  
Kernel Parameter

Transit flow is the basement of transit planning and scheduling. The paper presents a new transit flow prediction model based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). With reference to the theory of Support Vector Machine and Genetic Algorithm, a new short-term passenger flow prediction model is built employing LSSVM, and a new evaluation indicator is used for presenting training permanence. An improved genetic algorithm is designed by enhancing crossover and variation in the use of optimizing the penalty parameter γ and kernel parameter s in LS-SVM. By using this method, passenger flow in a certain bus route is predicted in Changchun. The obtained result shows that there is little difference between actual value and prediction, and the majority of the equal coefficients of a training set are larger than 0.90, which shows the validity of the approach. Santrauka Tranzito srautas yra tranzito planavimo ir eismo tvarkaraščių sudarymo pagrindas. Straipsnis pateikia naują tranzitinio srauto prognozavimo modelį, grindžiamą mažiausių kvadratų atraminių vektorių metodu (Least Squares Support Vector machine, LS-SVm). Remiantis atraminių vektorių metodu (Support Vector machine) ir genetiniu algoritmu (Genetic Algorithm), sudarytas naujas trumpalaikis keleivių srauto prognozavimo modelis, pasitelkiant LS-SVM ir pristatomas naujas vertinimo rodiklis. Taikant naują metodą prognozuojamas keleivių srautas konkrečiame autobuso maršrute Čangčuno mieste Kinijoje. Gautos prognozės rezultatai lyginami su faktiniais. Резюме Транзитный поток – основной фактор при планировании транзита и составлении расписаний движения. В статье представлена новая модель прогноз*а транзитного потока, основанная на методе опорных векторов с квадратичной функцией потерь (Least Squares Support Vector machine – LS-SVm). Представленный новый метод используется для прогноза потока пассажиров на конкретном автобусном маршруте города Чаньчуня (Китай). Результаты прогноза сравниваются с фактическими результатами.

scholarly journals Short-term passenger flow forecast for urban rail transit based on multi-source data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Liying Sui ◽  
Min Zhou ◽  
Hairong Dong
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Urban Rail Transit ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Rail Transit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Urban Rail ◽  
Svm Model

AbstractShort-term passenger flow prediction in urban rail transit plays an important role because it in-forms decision-making on operation scheduling. However, passenger flow prediction is affected by many factors. This study uses the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector machines (SVM) to establish a traffic flow prediction model. The model is built using intelligent data provided by a large-scale urban traffic flow warning system, such as accurate passenger flow data, collected using the Internet of things and sensor networks. The model proposed in this paper can adapt to the complexity, nonlinearity, and periodicity of passenger flow in urban rail transit. Test results on a Beijing traffic dataset show that the SARI-MA–SVM model can improve accuracy and reduce errors in traffic prediction. The obtained pre-diction fits well with the measured data. Therefore, the SARIMA–SVM model can fully charac-terize traffic variations and is suitable for passenger flow prediction.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Learning Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Xiangping Wang ◽  
Lei Huang ◽  
Haifeng Huang ◽  
Baoyu Li ◽  
Ziyang Xia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

In recent years, with the continuous improvement of urban public transportation capacity, citizens’ travel has become more and more convenient, but there are still some potential problems, such as morning and evening peak congestion, imbalance between the supply and demand of vehicles and passenger flow, emergencies, and social local passenger flow surged due to special circumstances such as activities and inclement weather. If you want to properly guide the local passenger flow and make a reasonable deployment of operating buses, it is necessary to grasp the changing law of public transportation short-term passenger flow. This paper builds a short-term passenger flow prediction model for urban public transportation based on the idea of integrated learning. The goal is to use the integrated model to accurately predict the short-term passenger flow of urban public transportation, using Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) as the four seed models, and then use regression algorithm to integrate the model and predict the passenger flow, station boarding and landing, and cross-sectional passenger flow data of the typical representative line 428 in the “Huitian Area” of Beijing from January 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. Finally, the prediction results of the submodels are compared with those of the integrated model to verify the superiority of the integrated model. The research results of this paper can enrich the short-term passenger flow forecasting system of urban public transportation and provide effective data support and scientific basis for the passenger flow, vehicle management, and dispatch of urban public transportation.

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