Two levels ARIMAX and regression models for forecasting time series data with calendar variation effects

Cashews contribute significantly to the Indonesian economy because it is one of the exporting countries. However, volume of exports tends to fluctuate, so it is necessary to identify the influencing factors. This study aims to analyze volume of Indonesian cashew exports and its determinants. Time series data for 8 variables during 1985–2016 were analyzed descriptively by multiple regression models. The results again show fluctuations in export volume and value over 1985–2016 period. Lowest export volume occurred in 1989, but its value was in 1985. Highest export volume and value occurred in 2015. National cashew export volume depends on the domestic cashew price, exchange rate and income per capita. Peanuts and coffee have a complementary relationship with cashews, while sugar has a substitution relationship with this commodity. Cashews are an inferior goods.

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Pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri, upah minimum dan belanja modal terhadap daya serap tenaga kerja di Provinsi Jambi

Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika ◽

10.22437/paradigma.v14i1.6608 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 37-44

Author(s):

Rizki Kenraraswati ◽

M. Syurya Hidayat ◽

Yohanes Vyn Amzar

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Multiple Regression ◽

Minimum Wage ◽

Regression Models ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Capital Expenditure ◽

Series Data ◽

Domestic Investment ◽

Average Growth ◽

Multiple Regression Models

The study aims to analyze the effect of domestic investment (PMDN), minimum wage (UMP) and capital expenditure (BM) on employment absorption in Jambi Province. The data used is time series data of Jambi Province during the period 2000-2016. Data were analyzed descriptively as well as multiple regression models. The results of the study found that: 1) the average growth of employment is 3.11percent per year, domestic investment is 11.67 percent per year, UMP is 16.44 percent per year and capital expenditure is 20.00 percent per year; 2) Simultaneously PMDN, UMP and BM have a significant effect on employment in Jambi Province. Partially the BM variable does not have a significant effect while the PMDN and UMP variables have a significant effect on employment in Jambi Province.

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Prediction in TwoEquation Linear Regression Models

Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin ◽

10.1177/0008068320050304 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 57 (3-4) ◽

pp. 195-208

Author(s):

Amitava Dey ◽

V. K. Sharma ◽

Himadri Ghosh

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Linear Regression Model ◽

Regression Models ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Generalized Least Squares ◽

Series Data ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

Error Terms ◽

Best Linear Unbiased

In regression models using time series data, the errors are generally correlated. The sample residuals contain useful information for predicting postsample observations. This information, which is generally ignored, has been exploited here in deriving the best linear unbiased predictors in a 2equation linear regression model. The gain in efficiency of the proposed predictors over the usual generalized least squares predictors has been obtained and the particular case when error terms in the two equations follow AR(l) process has also been disscussed.

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