This paper describes a newly developed combined water temperature-ecological (WT-ECO) model which is employed to simulate the effects of global warming on lake and reservoir ecosystems. The WT model includes (i) variations in the eddy diffusion coefficient based on the degree of thermal stratification and the velocity of wind, and (ii) a sub-model for simulating the freezing and thawing processes of surface water, water temperatures, and the mixing rates between two adjacent layers of water. The ECO model then uses these results to calculate the resultant effect on a lake's ecological dynamics, e.g., composition of phytoplankton species, their respective concentrations, and nutrient concentrations. When the model was benchmarked against Lake Yunoko, a dimictic lake, fairly good agreement was obtained over a 4-yr period; thereby indicating it is suitably calibrated. In addition, to assess the effects of global warming on a lake ecosystem, changes in Lake Yunoko's water temperature/quality were simulated in response to an increase in air temperature of 2 - 4°C. Results indicate that such an increase will (i) increase thermal stratification in summer, which increases the nutrient concentrations in bottom water due to nutrient release from bottom sediment, (ii) increase the concentration of phytoplankton at the beginning of the autumn circulation period, and (iii) change the composition of phytoplankton species.
