Climate and management effects on tick-game animal dynamics.

2021 ◽  
pp. 132-138
Author(s):  
Andrew Hoodless ◽  
Rufus Sage

Abstract This expert opinion discusses the mechanisms by which climate and management could alter tick and game host (animal) densities and contact rates, as well as considering the likely relative importance of climate change and game (animal) management in affecting the distribution of ticks in Europe.

Author(s):  
Bob E. H. van Oort ◽  
Grete K. Hovelsrud ◽  
Camilla Risvoll ◽  
Christian W. Mohr ◽  
Solveig Jore

Climate change in the Nordic countries is projected to lead to both wetter and warmer seasons. This, in combination with associated vegetation changes and increased animal migration, increases the potential incidence of tick-borne diseases (TBD) where already occurring, and emergence in new places. At the same time, vegetation and animal management influence tick habitat and transmission risks. In this paper, we review the literature on Ixodes ricinus, the primary vector for TBD. Current and projected distribution changes and associated disease transmission risks are related to climate constraints and climate change, and this risk is discussed in the specific context of reindeer management. Our results indicate that climatic limitations for vectors and hosts, and environmental and societal/institutional conditions will have a significant role in determining the spreading of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) under a changing climate. Management emerges as an important regulatory “tool” for tick and/or risk for disease transfer. In particular, shrub encroachment, and pasture and animal management, are important. The results underscore the need to take a seasonal view of TBD risks, such as (1) grazing and migratory (host) animal presence, (2) tick (vector) activity, (3) climate and vegetation, and (4) land and animal management, which all have seasonal cycles that may or may not coincide with different consequences of climate change on CSI migration. We conclude that risk management must be coordinated across the regions, and with other land-use management plans related to climate mitigation or food production to understand and address the changes in CSI risks.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 3301-3317 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Honti ◽  
A. Scheidegger ◽  
C. Stamm

Abstract. Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980s with a recent boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. From hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology has emerged, to a large extent shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the coming decades. The "standard" workflow relies on a model cascade from global circulation model (GCM) predictions for selected IPCC scenarios to future catchment hydrology. Uncertainty is present at each level and propagates through the model cascade. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. Our hypothesis was that the relative importance of climatic and hydrologic uncertainty is (among other factors) heavily influenced by the uncertainty assessment method. To test this we carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on two small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment with two different likelihood functions. One was a time series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was an approximate likelihood function for the flow quantiles. The results showed that the expected climatic impact on flow quantiles was small compared to prediction uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty assessment method actually determined what sources of uncertainty could be identified at all. This demonstrated that one could arrive at rather different conclusions about the causes behind predictive uncertainty for the same hydrological model and calibration data when considering different objective functions for calibration.


2021 ◽  
pp. 67-73
Author(s):  
Joshua Benoit ◽  
Kennan Oyen

Abstract This expert opinion highlights the relevance of maintenance of water balance in the off-host survival of ticks as well as the behavioural, physiological and molecular/biochemical mechanisms used by ticks to prevent and respond to drought and climate change.


2021 ◽  
pp. 449-454
Author(s):  
Dasiel Obregón Alvarez ◽  
Roxanne Albertha Charles ◽  
Agustín Estrada-Peña

Abstract This expert opinion refers to the most important ticks and tick-borne pathogens in the Caribbean and how global warming and climate change may influence their distribution in the next decades.


2021 ◽  
pp. 492-499
Author(s):  
Hao Li ◽  
Li-Qun Fang ◽  
Wei Liu

Abstract This expert opinion provides an overview of the type and distribution of tick species and emerging tick-borne pathogens in tick vectors and human beings (such as Anaplasma, Babesia, spotted fever group rickettsiae, Borrelia and viruses) in China and considers the potential influence of global warming and climate change.


2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 906-929 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Rind ◽  
Drew Shindell ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Jean Lerner ◽  
Patrick Lonergan ◽  
...  

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