Trend analysis of long-term rainfall data in the Upper Karoo of South Africa

Extreme rainfall events have made significant damages to properties, public infrastructure and agriculture in some provinces of South Africa notably in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng among others. The general global increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in recent years is raising a concern that human activities might be heavily disturbed. This study attempts to model long-term monthly rainfall variability in the selected provinces of South Africa using various statistical techniques. The study investigates the normality and stationarity of the underlying distribution of the whole body of rainfall data for each selected province, the long-term trends of the rainfall data and the extreme value distributions which model the tails of the rainfall distribution data. These approaches were meant to help achieve the broader purpose of this study of investigating the long-term rainfall trends, stationarity of the rainfall distributions and extreme value distributions of monthly rainfall records in the selected provinces of South Africa in this era of climate change. The five provinces considered in this study are Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Mpumalanga. The findings revealed that the long-term rainfall distribution for all the selected provinces does not come from a normal distribution. Furthermore, the monthly rainfall data distribution for the majority of the provinces is not stationary. The paper discusses the modelling of monthly rainfall extremes using the non-stationary generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD) which falls under the block maxima extreme value theory (EVT) approach. The maximum likelihood estimation method was used to obtain the estimates of the parameters. The stationary GEVD was found as the best distribution model for Eastern Cape, Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. Furthermore, model fitting supported non-stationary GEVD model for maximum monthly rainfall with nonlinear quadratic trend in the location parameter and a linear trend in the scale parameter for Limpopo, while in Mpumalanga the non-stationary GEVD model with a nonlinear quadratic trend in the scale parameter and no variation in the location parameter fitted well to the monthly rainfall data. The negative values of the shape parameters for Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga suggest that the data follow the Weibull distribution class, while the positive values of the shape parameters for Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo suggest that the data follow the Fréchet distribution class. The findings from this paper could give information that can assist decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, infrastructure, drainage system and other water resource applications in the South African provinces.

Download Full-text

The long-term trend analysis of rainfall data from 1901 to 2015 for Maharashtra and Goa regions in India

International Journal of Water ◽

10.1504/ijw.2019.10021791 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dada P. Nade ◽

Vineet V. Jakhalekar ◽

Rani P. Pawar ◽

Priyanka Patil ◽

Shreyas Kulkarni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Trend Analysis ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Term Trend ◽

Long Term Trend

Download Full-text

Measuring the long-term health of selected brands in South Africa using the brand Health Index

African Journal of Business and Economic Research ◽

10.31920/1750-4562/2020/15n1a5 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 109-133

Author(s):

T.G. Pelse ◽

◽

A.N. Khumalo

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Health Index

Download Full-text

Reconciliation as Interdependence

10.1093/oso/9780190881856.003.0009 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Fanie du Toit

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Institutional Arrangements ◽

Political Transition ◽

Racial Groups ◽

Just Society

This chapter endeavors to develop a coherent framework for political transition—as reconciliation. I argue that reconciliation explains how relationships emerge in unfavorable conditions; how once a modest beginning is achieved, cooperation can grow, trust strengthened, and understanding deepened through appropriate processes and institutional arrangements; and how eventually a fundamentally more just society is built—all as part of a comprehensive transitional agenda. In South Africa, reconciliation politics propagated the idea, diametrically opposed to apartheid, that racial groups were fundamentally and comprehensively interdependent. This provided a compelling rationale for taking reconciliation seriously—and twenty-four years on, it still does. Reconciliation embraces a shared future on the basis that this is not only desirable but unavoidable, and turns to deal with a troubled past because it obstructs this future. More broadly, therefore, reconciliation can be described as “working toward fairness and inclusivity, reconciliation entails the mutual acknowledgment, the progressive institutionalization, and the long-term socialization of a comprehensive and fundamental interdependence.”

Download Full-text

The Imperial Army Project

10.1093/oso/9780198704461.001.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Douglas E. Delaney

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

British Empire ◽

Second World War ◽

World War ◽

Archival Research ◽

Military Cooperation ◽

High Point ◽

The Military ◽

Second World

How did British authorities manage to secure the commitment of large dominion and Indian armies that could plan, fight, shoot, communicate, and sustain themselves, in concert with the British Army and with each other, during the era of the two world wars? This is the primary line of inquiry for this study, which begs a couple of supporting questions. What did the British want from the dominion and Indian armies and how did they go about trying to get it? How successful were they in the end? Answering these questions requires a long-term perspective—one that begins with efforts to fix the armies of the British Empire in the aftermath of their desultory performance in South Africa (1899–1903) and follows through to the high point of imperial military cooperation during the Second World War. Based on multi-archival research conducted in six different countries on four continents, Douglas E. Delaney argues that the military compatibility of the British Empire armies was the product of a deliberate and enduring imperial army project, one that aimed at ‘Lego-piecing’ the armies of the empire, while, at the same time, accommodating the burgeoning autonomy of the dominions and even India. At its core, this book is really about how a military coalition worked.

Download Full-text

Private retirement resorts in South Africa: Guidelines for wellness and sustainability in the long term.

Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie ◽

10.4102/satnt.v32i1.330 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Andries C. Hauptfleisch

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Knowledge Base ◽

Quantitative Data ◽

Qualitative Data ◽

Well Being ◽

The Other ◽

Literature Study ◽

Optimal Profile

Unsubsidised private retirement resorts in South Africa developed during the last three decades present residents with many challenges. There is no existing generally accepted knowledge base or guidelines to serve this sensitive market. The research objective was to establish which elements are experienced by residents of retirement resorts as satisfactory and which as problematic. A literature study was also undertaken. Quantitative as well as qualitative data were obtained by means of structured questionnaires, interviews and a seminar. The results reported pertain to eight resorts in the east of Pretoria, four in Bloemfontein and two in Knysna. The study is currently being extended to other centres. The quantitative data is arranged in order of the priorities set by the biggest group (Pretoria), with the other groups in comparison. So the research was based on the sourcing of quantitative and qualitative data, as well as on descriptive evaluations. The results offer insightful knowledge and guidelines towards establishing an optimal profile for the development of long-term sustainable private retirement resorts. The implications and value of this study are that both developers of retirement resorts and prospective residents are provided with guidelines to better equip them to evaluate a specific retirement resort with regard to the sustainable well- being of residents long-term.

Download Full-text