The Dangers of Mainstreaming Solar Geoengineering: A critique of the National Academies Report

Abstract. Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project the climate effects that would result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations for every possible pathway. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of green-house gas concentrations by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 x CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern hemisphere sea ice extent is less-well predicted, indicating the limits of the linearity assumption. For future pathways involving relatively small forcing from solar geoengineering, the errors introduced from nonlinear effects may be smaller than the uncertainty due to natural variability, and the emulator prediction may be a more accurate estimate of the forced component of the models' response than an actual simulation would be.

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Supplementary material to "Multi-model dynamic climate emulator for solar geoengineering"

10.5194/acp-2016-535-supplement ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Douglas G. MacMartin ◽

Ben Kravitz

Keyword(s):

Solar Geoengineering ◽

Supplementary Material

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Review of Solar Geoengineering for the Developing World: A Discourse on the State of Research and the Effects on Policy and Livelihoods for Africa

African Journal of Inter/Multidisciplinary Studies ◽

10.51415/ajims.v3i1.885 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 19-30

Author(s):

Hosea Patrick

Keyword(s):

Developing Economies ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Climate Science ◽

Social Scientists ◽

Course Of Action ◽

The Status ◽

Radiation Modification ◽

Solar Geoengineering ◽

State Of Research

The world is experiencing a rapid increase in the global average temperatures at an unprecedented level, primarily due to human activities. Global actors' and policymakers' inability to find an agreed upon course of action to curtail the looming effects of these increased temperatures is an issue of global environmental and human security concern. Solar geoengineering, also solar radiation modification (SRM), has been proposed in many quarters as an option to reducing global warming while finding other alternatives to GHG emissions. This paper provides a summary introduction to climate science on solar engineering for the social scientists and policymakers from the global south. The paper assesses the status, effects, and preparedness of developing economies, especially Africa, in adopting SRM policies and practices. It observes that the effects of SRM for Africa have not been adequately researched due to the dearth of research and experts on SRM, specifically for Africa. It concludes that the reliance of a significant proportion of developing societies on climate-sensitive livelihood options makes the implication of SRM a worthy consideration for research and policymakers.

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