Modelling the efficiency of power system with reserve capacity from variable renewable sources of energy

The paper considers modeling the efficiency of power system with integration large share of variable renewable sources of energy with the account of climate conditions of Ukraine. The proposed methodology with its position between system planning and dispatch simulation contributes to the field of hybrid energy system models. The idea behind the method allows high spatial and temporal resolution as well as the inclusion of the technical details of the power system and its dispatch. The novelty of this method is the usage of a parametric approach is chosen to analyze different variable renewable sources of energy scenarios, precisely every possible its share and mix. This provides insights on the systematic effects of different resource mixes and may serve as a new approach to the analysis of future power system development. The additional novelty aspect allows the optimization of the design of the technical details of the power system with large variable renewable sources shares to have continuous improvement of its energy efficiency. The energy balance model generator is well suited for the analysis of large share of variable renewable sources integration in the power system. The design of technical details of the power system with large variable renewable sources shares was optimized with the energy balance model. The results of numerical modelling demonstrated that at 80% variable renewable sources of energy share, the overproduction is reduced to 20%, down from over 100 % without grid extensions. With it, the necessary wind and solar capacity decreases. Consequently, the possible achievable variable renewable sources of energy share is increased, assuming the same technical potential. According to the results, a Ukrainian grid would allow to increase the possible variable renewable sources of energy share from 50% to 75%.

Thermal Phase Curves of XO-3b: An Eccentric Hot Jupiter at the Deuterium Burning Limit

We report Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of the eccentric hot Jupiter XO-3b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. Our new eclipse depth measurements of 1770 ± 180 ppm at 3.6 μm and 1610 ± 70 ppm at 4.5 μm show no evidence of the previously reported dayside temperature inversion. We also empirically derive the mass and radius of XO-3b and its host star using Gaia DR3's parallax measurement and find a planetary mass M p = 11.79 ± 0.98 M Jup and radius R p = 1.295 ± 0.066 R Jup. We compare our Spitzer observations with multiple atmospheric models to constrain the radiative and advective properties of XO-3b. While the decorrelated 4.5 μm observations are pristine, the 3.6 μm phase curve remains polluted with detector systematics due to larger amplitude intrapixel sensitivity variations in this channel. We focus our analysis on the more reliable 4.5 μm phase curve and fit an energy balance model with solid body rotation to estimate the zonal wind speed and the pressure of the bottom of the mixed layer. Our energy balance model fit suggests an eastward equatorial wind speed of 3.13 − 0.83 + 0.26 km s−1, an atmospheric mixed layer down to 2.40 − 0.16 + 0.92 bars, and a Bond albedo of 0.106 − 0.106 + 0.008 . We assume that the wind speed and mixed layer depth are constant throughout the orbit. We compare our observations with 1D planet-averaged model predictions at apoapse and periapse and 3D general circulation model predictions for XO-3b. We also investigate the inflated radius of XO-3b and find that it would require an unusually large amount of internal heating to explain the observed planetary radius.

Satellite-Based Water and Energy Balance Model for the Arid Region to Determine Evapotranspiration: Development and Application

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) plays an important role in irrigation planning and supervision. Traditionally, the estimation of ETa was approximated using different in situ techniques, having high initial and maintenance costs with low spatial resolution. In this context, satellite imagery models play an effective role in water management practices by estimating ETa in small and large-scale areas. All existing models have been widely used for the estimation of ETa around the globe, but there is no definite conclusion on which approach is best for the hot and hyper-arid region of Oman. Our study introduces an innovative approach that uses in situ, meteorological, and satellite imagery (Landsat-OLI/TIRS) datasets to estimate ETa. The satellite-based water and energy balance model for the arid region to determine evapotranspiration (SMARET) was developed under the hot and hyper-arid region conditions of Oman by incorporating soil temperature in the sensible heat flux. The performance of SMARET ran through accuracy assessment against in situ measurements via sap flow sensors and lysimeters. The SMARET was also evaluated against three existing models, including the surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL), mapping evapotranspiration at high-resolution with internalized calibration (METRIC), and the Penman–Monteith (PM) model. The study resulted in a significant correlation between SMARET (R2 = 0.73), as well as the PM model (R2 = 0.72), and the ETa values calculated from Lysimeter. The SMARET model also showed a significant correlation (R2 = 0.66) with the ETa values recorded using the sap flow meter. The strong relationship between SMARET, sap flow measurement, and lysimeter observation suggests that SMARET has application capability in hot and hyper-arid regions.

Mathematical Modelling of Climate Change and Variability in the Context of Outdoor Ergonomics

The current climate change, unlike previous ones, is caused by human activity and is characterized by an unprecedented rate of increase in the near-surface temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous weather and climate events. To survive, society must be prepared to implement adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This requires, first of all, knowledge of how the climate will change in the future. To date, mathematical modelling remains the only method and effective tool that is used to predict the climate system’s evolution under the influence of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. It is important that mathematics and its methods and approaches have played a vital role in climate research for several decades. In this study, we examined some mathematical methods and approaches, primarily, mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, for studying the Earth’s climate system, taking into account the dependence of human health on environmental conditions. The essential features of stochastic climate models and their application for the exploration of climate variability are examined in detail. As an illustrative example, we looked at the application of a low-order energy balance model to study climate variability. The effects of variations in feedbacks and the climate system’s inertia on the power spectrum of global mean surface temperature fluctuations that characterized the distribution of temperature variance over frequencies were estimated using a sensitivity analysis approach. Our confidence in the obtained results was based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum that was derived from the energy balance model and the power spectrum that was obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models.

Distributed Energy Balance Flux Modelling of Mass Balances in the Artesonraju Glacier and Discharge in the Basin of Artesoncocha, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

A distributed energy balance model (DEBAM) is applied to estimate the mass balance of the Artesonraju glacier in the Cordillera Blanca (CB), Peru, and to simulate the ensuing discharge into its respective basin, Artesoncocha. The energy balance model calibrations show that, by using seasonal albedos, reasonable results for mass balances and discharge can be obtained, as witnessed by annually aggregated Nash Sutcliffe coefficients (E) of 0.60–0.87 for discharge and of 0.58–0.71 for mass measurements carried out in the period 2004–2007. Mass losses between −1.42 and −0.45 m.w.e. are calculated for that period. The elevation line altitudes (ELAs), which lie between 5009 and 5050 m.a.s.l., are also well simulated, compared to those measured by the Unidad Glaciologica de Recursos Hídricos del Perú (UGRH). It is demonstrated that the net radiation which drives the energy balance and melting processes is mainly affected by the amount of reflected shortwave radiation from the different surfaces. Moreover, the longwave radiation sinks between 63 and 73% of solar radiative energy in the dry season. Further sensitivity studies indicate that the assumed threshold temperature T0 is crucial in mass balance simulations, as it determines the extension of areas with different albedos. An optimal T0 between 2.6 and 3.8 °C is deduced from these simulations.