Application of Multivariate Techniques for Spatial Drought Modelling using Satellite Rainfall Estimate in Fiji

Monitoring hydrological extremes is essential for developing risk-mitigation strategies. One of the limiting factors for this is the absence of reliable on the ground monitoring networks that capture data on climate variables, which is highly evident in developing states such as Fiji. Fortunately, increasing global coverage of satellite-derived datasets is facilitating utilisation of this information for monitoring dry and wet periods in data sparse regions. In this study, three global satellite rainfall datasets (CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR and CPC) were evaluated for Fiji. All satellite products had reasonable correlations with station data, and CPC had the highest correlation with minimum error values. The Effective Drought Index (EDI), a useful index for understanding hydrological extremes, was then calculated. Thereafter, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was employed to forecast the EDI using sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) data. A high canonical correlation of 0.98 was achieved between the PCs of mean SST and mean EDI, showing the influence of ocean–atmospheric interactions on precipitation regimes in Fiji. CCA was used to perform a hind cast and a short-term forecast. The training stage produced a coefficient of determinant (R2) value of 0.83 and mean square error (MSE) of 0.11. The results in the testing stage for the forecast were more modest, with an R2 of 0.45 and MSE of 0.26. This easy-to-implement system can be a useful tool used by disaster management bodies to aid in enacting water restrictions, providing aid, and making informed agronomic decisions such as planting dates or extents.

Workplace Incivility and Job Satisfaction

Workplace incivility is common in organizations across the world and can have negative effects on individuals and organizations. The purpose of the reported study is to examine the effects of supervisor and coworker incivility on job satisfaction and examines emotion management as a mediator of these relationships. Data from 268 working adults were collected by survey battery and analyzed via a number of multivariate techniques. The model was supported in that both supervisor and coworker incivility had strong direct negative effects on emotion management and job satisfaction, and emotion management partially mediated the incivility-job satisfaction relationship. With supervisor and coworker incivility, the participants reported lower levels of job satisfaction. However, the participants' emotion management mitigated the negative effect of incivility on job satisfaction partially. The findings suggest that organizations need to be aware of the unfavorable consequences of incivility. Organizations need to discover ways to reduce incivility and implement efforts to help employees develop positive emotional management strategies. These actions may help reduce the negative influences of incivility on important organizational outcomes like job satisfaction.

Interação dos atributos químicos do solo em área com floresta natural e com plantio de laranja (Citrus sinensis L Osb.)

Na região amazônica é comum a conversão de ambiente natural para o de cultivo, com isso o solo permanece em constantes modificações. As atividades agrícolas podem incrementar a heterogeneidade do solo provocando alterações nos atributos químicos do solo, decorrente principalmente das atividades de manejo e cultivo. Essas mudanças são mensuráveis e contribuem para caracterizar, avaliar e acompanhar as alterações ocorrida utilizando ferramentas estatísticas. Assim o estudo da variabilidade espacial dos atributos químicos dos solos é particularmente importante especialmente em áreas onde o solo está submetido a diferentes manejos, visando reduzir os efeitos da variabilidade na produção das culturas em função de determinadas práticas de manejo. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a variabilidade espacial dos atributos químicos em área de floresta natural e com cultivo de laranja em Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia. Foram selecionadas duas áreas de estudo, a primeira sendo a área de floresta nativa e a segunda sob cultivo de laranja em de Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia. Em cada área foi delimitada uma malha com 1.260 m² (42 x 30 m), com 48 pontos e espaçamento regular entre pontos de 6 m. Nos pontos de cruzamento da malha foram coletadas amostras em três profundidades (0,00-0,05; 0,05-0,10 e 0,10-0,20 m), correspondente ao horizonte diagnóstico do solo, perfazendo uma somatória de 144 amostras por área, logo, um total de 288. Serão determinados dos atributos químicos de pH em água, acidez potencial, alumínio trocável, fósforo e potássio disponível, e carbono orgânico. Com a obtenção dos dados, estes foram avaliados por meio de estatística descrita com teste de médias e a realização da análise multivariada. Houve diferença entre as duas áreas, a substituição da vegetação nativa por sistema de cultivo, ocasionou alterações nos atributos químicos do solo. O uso das técnicas multivariadas mostrou-se eficiente na distinção dos ambientes estudados. Interaction of the chemical attributes of the soil in an area with natural forest and with planting of orange (Citrus sinensis L. Osb.) A B S T R A C TIn the Amazon region it is common to convert from a natural environment to that of cultivation, with this the soil remains in constant modifications. Agricultural activities can increase the heterogeneity of the soil causing changes in the chemical attributes of the soil, mainly due to management and cultivation activities. These changes are measurable and contribute to characterize, evaluate and monitor the changes that have occurred using statistical tools. Thus, the study of the spatial variability of the chemical attributes of soils is particularly important, especially in areas where the soil is subjected to different managements, in order to reduce the effects of variability in the production of crops due to certain management practices. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the spatial variability of chemical attributes in an area of natural forest and with orange cultivation in Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia. Two study areas were selected, the first being the native forest area and the second under orange cultivation in Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia. In each area, a mesh of 1,260 m² (42 x 30 m) was delimited, with 48 points and regular spacing between points of 6 m. At the crossing points of the grid, samples were collected at three depths (0.00-0.05; 0.05-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m), corresponding to the soil diagnostic horizon, making a sum of 144 samples per area, therefore, a total of 288. The chemical attributes of pH in water, potential acidity, exchangeable aluminum, available phosphorus and potassium, and organic carbon will be determined. Once the data were obtained, they were evaluated using statistics described with the means test and the multivariate analysis. There was a difference between the two areas, the replacement of native vegetation by a cultivation system, caused changes in the chemical attributes of the soil. The use of multivariate techniques proved to be efficient in distinguishing the studied environments.Keywords: Amazon soils, Use and management, Soil occupation.

Multivariate analysis of chemical parameters of cocoa: a contribution to origin designation / Análise multivariada de parâmetros químicos do cacau: uma contribuição para a denominação de origem

Brazil has been trying to become a key player in the specialized market through the production of fine chocolate. However, there is still no rules about the chemical quality of cocoa beans that allows it to be grouped by micro-regions. In this context, the objective of this work was to determine some chemical parameters of cocoa samples, aiming to contribute to the creation of the designation of origin for the cocoa produced in the south of Bahia. For this propose, proteins, lipids, total minerals, and fatty acid profile analysis were performed. The results obtained were correlated using multivariate statistical tests. The chemical composition of the cocoa beans, allowed to differentiate samples of cocoa, revealing the formation of three groups of samples. The two main components (lipids and proteins) were analysed together, characterizing the producing region. Regarding the analysis of the fatty acid profile, they showed that the cocoa harvested in the main season presents a higher influence of saturated fatty acids, while in the early season the higher influence is of unsaturated fatty acids. Multivariate techniques were able to group the different types of cocoa according to their chemical profile, helping to create an origin denomination for those produced in Southern Bahia.

Spatial variability of soil erodibility in pastures and forest areas in the municipality of Porto Velho, Rondônia

“Erodibility” is a characteristic of the soil that represents the susceptibility with which its particles from the most superficial layer are taken and transported to lower places by erosive agents, causing environmental and economic damages. This work estimated soil erodibility in pastures and forest areas in the municipality of Porto Velho-Rondônia. In the field, three areas with different types of vegetation were selected, one with brachiaria, another with mombaça grass, and a third in native forest. In areas with pastures, a sampling mesh of equal sizes was outlined (90 m x 60 m), and in the forested area an approximate sampling mesh (90 m x 50 m), with a regular spacing of 10 m between the samples points for both areas. The sampling was done at the crossing points of the mesh at a depth of 0.0-0.2 m, composing 70 sample points in the areas with pastures and 60 sample points in the forest area, totaling 200 samples. Then, laboratory analyzes were carried out to determine the texture followed by the fractionation of the sand, and the organic carbon followed by the estimate of the organic matter of the soil. The erodibility factors were calculated using indirect prediction models, and then, univariate, geostatistical and multivariate techniques were applied. The pastures’ environments differed from the forest environment. However, the mombaça grass area functions as an intermediate environment between the forest and the brachiaria, being closer to the forest environment. Keywords: erodibility, factors, kriging, principal components.

Social Connectedness, Meals on Wheels Services and Healthcare Utilization Among High-Need Older Adults

Homebound vulnerable adults 65+ are at an increased risk for social isolation and loneliness. The adverse consequences of loneliness are profound – including increased health care utilization, burden of dementia, chronic diseases, and mortality. Meals on Wheels (MOW) is a familiar source of nutritional support for homebound individuals who wish to stay in their homes and has additional important benefits. A growing body of evidence demonstrates that MOW provides mental and social health benefits beyond nutrition, but less is known about the interplay between MOW, social cohesion, and health services use. This project will address this gap in the literature using data from the 2013-2020 National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a nationally-representative panel study of 65+ Medicare enrollees. Using matching and longitudinal multivariate techniques, the risks of hospitalization and permanent nursing home entry are compared between MOW users and non-users. Our longitudinal dataset includes 11,266 observations. Of those, 12.8% rely on MOW or other food assistance (N= 1,488) and 16.6% experience low social cohesion (N= 1,936). Some 6.6% of participants are nursing home residents (N= 748) and the 39.1% report an overnight hospital stay in the prior year (N= 4,560). MOW is a comparatively low-cost intervention to help homebound older adults retain their independence and limit costlier healthcare utilization. This work extends our understanding of MOW services beyond simple nutrition benefits to its potential impact on social health.

Temporal changes in metal concentrations in a polluted urban basin: the contribution of multivariate techniques to the evaluation of their recovery

In urban rivers in many fast-growing cities, heavy metals pollution is one of the major quality issues. Quantifying its recovery success seems to be a difficult but necessary challenge, in part, because a complex database is generally needed to assess water quality. The overall goal of this work was to evaluate temporal changes in metal concentrations in a polluted basin applying the AEM method and to determine the physicochemical and meteorological parameters associated with these changes using the RDA. We analyzed temporal changes of 15 sites located in the Matanza Riachuelo River Basin, one of the most polluted basins in the word. For this, we collected data of metal concentrations in surface water, physicochemical parameters of water and meteorological factors of eight years (2008 to 2015) in each site. The results of this work allowed make evident temporal patterns (at different scales) in metal concentrations and several factors associated with these patterns. Also, we found that the effects of physicochemical and meteorological factors in metal concentrations were dependent of each site, possibly related to the presence of different sources of pollution or characteristics of the river. Our study showed that the combination of AEM and RDA multivariate techniques is a useful tool for both detecting temporal trends in the concentrations of environmental pollutants, which are not easily detectable in highly degraded environments, and for evaluating factors associated with these changes. These techniques could be applied to different scenarios (aquatic and terrestrial) affected by the continuous advance of human activities.

Metabolomic Profile at Birth, Bronchiolitis and Recurrent Wheezing: A 3-Year Prospective Study

There is growing interest for studying how early-life influences the development of respiratory diseases. Our aim was to apply metabolomic analysis to urine collected at birth, to evaluate whether there is any early metabolic signatures capable to distinguish children who will develop acute bronchiolitis and/or recurrent wheezing. Urine was collected at birth in healthy term newborns. Children were followed up to the age of 3 years and evaluated for the development of acute bronchiolitis and recurrent wheezing (≥3 episodes). Urine were analyzed through a liquid-chromatography mass-spectrometry based untargeted approach. Metabolomic data were investigated applying univariate and multivariate techniques. 205 children were included: 35 had bronchiolitis, 11 of whom had recurrent wheezing. Moreover, 13 children had recurrent wheezing not preceded by bronchiolitis. Multivariate data analysis didn’t lead to reliable classification models capable to distinguish children with and without bronchiolitis or with recurrent wheezing preceded by bronchiolitis neither by PLS for classification (PLS2C) nor by Random Forest (RF). However, a reliable signature was discovered to distinguish children who later develop recurrent wheezing not preceded by bronchiolitis, from those who do not (MCCoob = 0.45 for PLS2C and MCCoob = 0.48 for RF). In this unselected birth cohort, a well-established untargeted metabolomic approach found no biochemical-metabolic dysregulation at birth associated with the subsequent development of acute bronchiolitis or recurrent wheezing post-bronchiolitis, not supporting the hypothesis of an underlying predisposing background. On the other hand, a metabolic signature was discovered that characterizes children who develop wheezing not preceded by bronchiolitis.