A game theory view of military conflict in the Taiwan strait

Deepening economic ties across the Taiwan Strait are widely believed by analysts and scholars to be a stabilizing force in cross-Strait political relations. Yet within the broader international relations literature, the relationship between economic interdependence and military conflict continues to be controversial. This article examines the impact of growing cross-Strait economic links on the likelihood of cross-Strait military conflict within the context of this broader literature. A description of three separate causal mechanisms—identified in the existing literature—through which economic ties could promote peace is followed by a discussion of how broadly these processes are operating in the Taiwan Strait case. Although the article does not rule out the possibility that economic integration across the Strait makes a military confrontation less likely, it shows that the evidence in support of such a proposition is ambiguous.

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Diversionary Dragons, or “Talking Tough in Taipei”: Cross-Strait Relations in the New Millennium

Journal of East Asian Studies ◽

10.1017/s1598240800006718 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 369-398 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Yitan Li ◽

Patrick James ◽

A. Cooper Drury

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

International Conflict ◽

Taiwan Strait ◽

Public Attention ◽

Military Conflict ◽

High Profile ◽

Diversionary Theory ◽

The Taiwan Strait ◽

Middle Powers ◽

Taiwan Independence

Much has been written on the triangular, and increasingly high-profile, China-Taiwan-US relations. However, scholars have yet to apply Diversionary Theory to the China-Taiwan dyad. DT argues that leaders may resort to international conflict when domestic political and economic situations become troublesome, aiming at directing public attention away from problems at home. While creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taipei is deemed quite unlikely, more subtle processes of diversion might be expected instead. This article applies a variant on DT to assess whether leaders in Taipei have used rhetoric about Taiwan independence or unification as a distraction from domestic problems during the years leading up to Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. We find that, as the president's approval sinks, pro-independence rhetoric becomes more likely. Overall, the results of this study confirm extension of DT to the case of Taiwan and encourage further research applied to middle powers.

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Is the Taiwan Strait Still a Flash Point? Rethinking the Prospects for Armed Conflict between China and Taiwan

International Security ◽

10.1162/isec_a_00227 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 40 (3) ◽

pp. 54-92 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Scott L. Kastner

Keyword(s):

Economic Integration ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Taiwan Strait ◽

Military Power ◽

Future Trends ◽

Military Conflict ◽

Republic Of China ◽

Shifting Balance ◽

The Taiwan Strait ◽

The Impact

After decades of tension, relations between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan have improved dramatically in recent years. How durable is this détente? To what degree is armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait a continued possibility? Answering these questions requires grappling with the impact of several different trends in cross–Taiwan Strait relations, including a rapidly shifting balance of military power, deepening China-Taiwan economic integration, and changing Taiwanese views on sovereignty and identity issues. Taken together, these trends help to stabilize the cross-strait relationship. Nevertheless, this relationship has not been fundamentally transformed, and future trends could evolve in a way that again increases the danger of military conflict. In particular, a changing balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait has the potential to be highly destabilizing if it overtakes other trends such as economic integration.

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Bridge over Troubled Water? Envisioning a China-Taiwan Peace Agreement

International Security ◽

10.1162/isec.2009.33.4.87 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 33 (4) ◽

pp. 87-114 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Phillip C. Saunders ◽

Scott L. Kastner

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Taiwan Strait ◽

Peace Agreement ◽

Military Conflict ◽

2008 Presidential Election ◽

The Taiwan Strait ◽

The Way

In Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, both candidates advocated signing a peace agreement with China, and Chinese leaders have also expressed interest in reaching such an agreement. Although substantial obstacles remain in the way of a cross-strait peace agreement, this increased interest on both sides of the Taiwan Strait suggests that a closer examination of an agreement's possible dimensions and consequences is warranted. This analysis considers what an agreement might look like, whether and how it might be effective in reducing the possibility of cross-strait military conflict, the relevant barriers to an agreement, and whether an agreement—if reached—would be likely to endure.

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