scholarly journals Inflation targeting in high inflation emerging economies: lessons about rules and instruments

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B. Taylor
2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.


2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Varella Mollick ◽  
René Cabral ◽  
Francisco G. Carneiro

2020 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 06003
Author(s):  
Aizhan Omarova ◽  
Zhanar Oralbaeva ◽  
Assel Turlybekova ◽  
Assiya Marat

In modern conditions for Kazakhstan, it becomes important to choose a development model that would be the most optimal and effective. When developing a model of economic policy, special attention should be paid to the choice of a system of indicators that could adequately describe macroeconomic processes as a whole and their interconnections. At the same time, economists argue that the implementation of the model approach can become the basis for strategic decisions only in a stable economic situation and when in the period under review the change in the cost structure of GDP is not distorted by high inflation. Therefore, in modern conditions of economic development, in our opinion, it is of interest to study the relationship between economic growth and the level of current and threshold inflation. This study substantiates the role of the threshold inflation level and proposes an equation of the functional dependence of this indicator on the main economic indicators. The necessary conditions for the implementation of the inflation targeting regime are disclosed. It is concluded that in conditions of commodity dependence, new effective monetary policy instruments are required.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-47
Author(s):  
María Inés Stimolo ◽  
Marcela Porporato

Purpose Cost behaviour literature is expanding its reach beyond developed economies; however, there is limited knowledge about its causes in emerging economies. This is an exploratory study of sticky costs behaviour determinants in Argentina, a country with periodic political and economic turbulence. The purpose of this paper is to test the effect of GDP, asset intensity, industry and cost type in an inflationary context. Design/methodology/approach Anderson et al. (2003) empirical regression (ABJ model) is replicated in Argentina with 667 observations from 96 firms between the years 2004 and 2012. It uses panel data and variables are defined as change rates between two periods. The sample excludes financial and insurance firms. It tests if sticky cost behaviour changes in periods of macroeconomic deceleration, or in firms belonging to industries with different asset intensity levels, or among different cost types. Findings The analysis shows that costs are sticky in Argentina, where a superb economic outlook is required to delay cutting resources or increasing costs. Cost behaviour is affected by social and cultural factors, such as labour inflexibility driven by powerful unions and not by protective employment laws, asset intensity (industry) and macroeconomic environment. Results suggest that costs are sticky for aggregate samples, but not for all subsamples. Practical implications Administrative costs are sticky when GDP grows; but when growth declines, managers or firms do not delay cost cutting actions. Some subsamples are extreme cases of stickiness while others are anti-sticky, casting some doubt on the usefulness of sticky costs empirical tests applied to country-wide samples. Careful selection of observations for sticky costs studies in emerging economies is critical. Originality/value Evidence from previous studies show that on average costs are remarkably sticky in Argentina; this study shows that cost reduction activities occur faster but are not persistent enough to change the aggregated long-term results of cost stickiness in the presence of moderate to high inflation. The study contributes to the literature by suggesting that observations used in sticky costs studies from emerging economies might be mainly from positive macroeconomic environments, might have skewed results due to extreme cases of stickiness or might be distorted by inflation.


2016 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 108-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Pourroy ◽  
Benjamin Carton ◽  
Dramane Coulibaly

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-39
Author(s):  
Katleho Makatjane ◽  
Diteboho Xaba

With the adoption of the inflation targeting by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in 2000, the average inflation radically went down. Earlier 2000, the inflation rate was recorded at 8.8% that is January 1999; then a year later went down to 2.65%. What’s more, this paper builds up an early warning system (EWS) model for predicting the event of high inflation in South Africa. Periods of high and low inflation were distinguished by utilizing Markov-switching model. Utilizing the results of regime classification, logistic regression models were then assessed with the goal of measuring the likelihood of the event of high inflation periods. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed EWS model has some potential as a corresponding instrument in the SARB’s monetary policy formulation based on the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 266-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Nicolay ◽  
Ana Jordânia de Oliveira

PurposeStudies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity.Design/methodology/approachThe work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations.FindingsThe findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal.Practical implicationsThis paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank.Originality/valueThere are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 91-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelkader Aguir

Abstract The main motives behind the adoption of an inflation targeting regime largely relate to the notion of credibility, transparency of monetary policy and the autonomy of the central bank, which explicitly undertakes to achieve a certain inflation target. This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting in emerging economies in relation to the degree of independence of the central bank and the credibility of monetary policy. We find effects in emerging economies with little central bank independence, so our findings suggest that the central bank’s credibility, transparency and independence is a prerequisite for emerging economies to experience a decline in inflation following the adoption of inflation targeting.


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