Decomposition of the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt: Evidence from the ARDL Model

This paper examines the behavior of the real exchange rate in Egypt over the period 1965–2018 by attempting to pursue three interrelated purposes. The first is to investigate the extent of deviations between the actual exchange rate and its equilibrium level and illustrate the magnitude of any currency misalignments. The second is to search for the different phases of over- and undervaluation of the local currency and explain the accompanying economic policies and/or factors leading to them. The third and ultimate purpose is to explore the role of transitory and permanent factors in deviating the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium level. Understanding these factors should help in the design of economic policies directed to address the misalignment of the local currency. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach is used and conducted for both the bilateral and effective real exchange rates to achieve these three purposes during the selected period. To derive the equilibrium exchange rate estimate, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach is adopted. The findings reveal that the Egyptian pound was misaligned from its equilibrium value during most of the examined period. The results confirm the relative importance of the terms of trade and degree of openness variables in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate in Egypt followed by investment ratio and government consumption variables. The local currency witnessed a recent phase of overvaluation, which began in 2009, until the free float of the local currency in November 2016, after which, the Egyptian pound was found to have experienced a new phase of undervaluation till the end of the period examined. The findings show a considerable relative impact of fundamental-based factors over a prolonged period spanning from 1986 to 2003 and at the end of the period examined as well. Moreover, the documented results lend general support to the fact that both permanent or fundamental-based factors and short-run shocks prove to be important influential factors impacting currency misalignment in Egypt.

What drives local currency bond market development in Saudi Arabia: do macroeconomic and institutional factors matter?

The main objective of this study is to empirically determine which factors are related to the development of local-currency bond market (LCBM) in Saudi Arabia over the period 1990–2019. Using ARDL modeling, the results reveal long-run cointegrating relationships between LCBM capitalization and macroeconomic, financial, and institutional factors. Unlike institutional ones, macroeconomic and financial factors seem to matter more in developing LCBM in the short run. However, in the long run, larger economic size more government spending, low inflation levels, broader and deeper banking system, higher bureaucratic quality, and better investment profile, all play a crucial role in the determination of Saudi LCBM. Policy implications include measures toward sound macroeconomic fundamentals, broad and deep banking system, efficient stock market, and high-quality governance institutions.

Asia Bond Monitor November 2021

This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.

Hyperinflation - Wikipedia

In economics, hyperinflation is very high and typically accelerating inflation. It quickly erodes the real value of the local currency, as the prices of all goods increase. This causes people to minimize their holdings in that currency as they usually switch to more stable foreign currencies, in recent history often the US dollar.[1] Prices typically remain stable in terms of other relatively stable currencies. ***** For archiving purpose only *****

Crisis Mitigation through Cash Assistance to Increase Local Consumption Levels—A Case Study of a Bimonetary System in Barcelona, Spain

Subsidies in the form of direct transfers from the government to citizens constitute a powerful mechanism for crisis mitigation and for the alleviation of economic inequalities. However, the connection between direct transfers of cash assistance to selected individual beneficiaries and the prosperity of their immediate surrounding local economy has not been sufficiently explored. This paper presents a case study which analyzes the effects of allocating cash assistance in the form of a local currency. It shows that, under certain conditions, such a transfer not only provides the beneficiaries with additional purchasing power to satisfy their needs but also that the monetary injection benefits local SMEs by generating additional turnover. Using transactional data from the system, some indicators are proposed to analyze the properties of the system, namely, user satisfaction, total and average income generated by local businesses, the local multiplier, the recirculation of the local currency, and the velocity of its circulation. Our findings indicate that cash assistance provided in the REC local currency could contribute to local economic development and financial stability by sustaining local commerce, while preserving most of the original positive effects of cash assistance in a legal tender.

Identification of token contracts on Ethereum: standard compliance and beyond

Next to cryptocurrencies, tokens are a widespread application area of blockchains. Tokens are digital assets implemented as small programs on a blockchain. Being programmable makes them versatile and an innovative means for various purposes. Tokens can be used as investment, as a local currency in a decentralized application, or as a tool for building an ecosystem or a community. A high-level categorization of tokens differentiates between payment, security, and utility tokens. In most jurisdictions, security tokens are regulated, and hence, the distinction is of relevance. In this work, we discuss the identification of tokens on Ethereum, the most widely used token platform. The programs on Ethereum are called smart contracts, which—for the sake of interoperability—may provide standardized interfaces. In our approach, we evaluate the publicly available transaction data by first reconstructing interfaces in the low-level code of the smart contracts. Then, we not only check the compliance of a smart contract with an established interface standard for tokens, but also aim at identifying tokens that are not fully compliant. Thus, we discuss various heuristics for token identification in combination with possible definitions of a token. More specifically, we propose indicators for tokens and evaluate them on a large set of token and non-token contracts. Finally, we present first steps toward an automated classification of tokens regarding their purpose.