The interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Emerging economy

This article's main goal is to evaluate the degree of fiscal dominance in Uruguay in 1999-2019 to improve the understanding of economic policy for theoretical reasons and applied needs related to good practices and accountability. Two strategies are followed: one, to quantify the fraction of fiscal expenditures that are financed by monetary liabilities and, the other one, to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit on the price level and inflation because inflationary financing may prevent the central bank from reaching its inflation target. Both situations may subordinate the monetary policy to the fiscal policy, signaling fiscal dominance. In addition, through the analysis performed to assess the degree of fiscal dominance, it is possible to detect the main determining factors of the Uruguayan price level (inflation) formation during the last two decades. So far, preliminary results suggest that inflation is not exclusively a monetary phenomenon and point to some inflationary financing with a mild degree of fiscal dominance.

The establishment of the inflation target and the corridor of fluctuations of the target: analysis of world trends and practice in Ukraine

The article presents an analysis of global trends in setting the inflation target and the acceptable corridor of inflation target fluctuations. Inflation targeting is an important attribute of the monetary regime of inflation targeting, its main quantitative parameter. The tendency of the inflation targeting regime in 70 countries all over the world are considered, of which 41 countries have official recognition by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the inflation targeting regime. It was found that most countries set the inflation target at 5% or below, and the level of the corridor of fluctuations in relative terms hovers around 20-50% of the target value. The latest trends related to changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have been studied, recommendations for determining the acceptable corridor of fluctuations of the inflation target in small and open economies on the example of Ukraine are provided.

Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Menu Costs and a Zero Lower Bound

I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibility at the zero lower bound, and through this mechanism, it reduces the severity of recessions when the monetary authority is constrained. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E42, E52)

Correction of monetary policy under the influence of corona crisis and long-term factors

The article shows the modification of monetary policy and modification of its interaction with fiscal policy in response to the challenges of the global financial crisis and the corona crisis, as well as reveals potential macroeconomic policy adjustments in response to long-term structural changes in the global economy. The specificity of the global financial and economic crisis, which was caused by financial intermediaries, and the belief in markets efficiency led to the dominance of monetary instruments in combating this crisis. However, purely monetary stimulus does not solve structural problems, and, acting with a very low degree of targeting, but on a huge scale, leads to the debt accumulation and financial crises. The corona crisis forced to resort to budget incentives to ensure targeted support for people and businesses and provided an impetus to discuss the ways to make better use of fiscal policy capacity to increase potential GDP and reduce inequality. The following potential long-term adjustments of macroeconomic policy are revealed: 1) increasing the emphasis on the interests of employees; 2) increasing the inclusiveness of monetary and fiscal policy; 3) the growing role of fiscal policy as an instrument of macroeconomic stabilization; 4) revision of the theory of monetary and fiscal policy interaction; 5) revision of the pre-emptive approach to anti-inflation policy, which means the reaction of monetary policy to deviations of the inflation forecast from the target, and the emergence of alternatives: response to the actual achievement and maintenance the inflation target for some time and compensation for the previous deviations from the inflation target; 6) modification of the optimal anti-inflationary policy in response to demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation; 7) adjustment of the monetary policy in response to rising inflation due to the exhaustion of long-standing global disinflationary forces that have been in effect since the 1980s; 8) more active monetary and fiscal stimulus in emerging market economies.