Abstract
A systems approach was previously developed for mitigating phytosanitary risk of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) in citrus fruit exported from South Africa, as an alternative to a standalone cold disinfestation treatment. The present study first tested the original systems approach by applying it on a semicommercial scale in 10 Nova mandarin orchards. Fruit were inspected at points in the production, packing, and simulated shipping process, to assess performance of the systems approach. Additional data were obtained from 17 Valencia orange orchards and six packinghouses. In the second part of this study, the systems approach was accordingly revised and improved, consisting of three measures: 1) preharvest controls and measurements and postpicking sampling, inspection, and packinghouse procedures; 2) postpacking sampling and inspection; and 3) shipping conditions. The model quantifying the effectiveness of the systems approach was improved by correcting errors in the original version, updating parameter values and adding a component that provides for comparison with the risk mitigation provided by a standalone disinfestation treatment. Consequently, the maximum potential proportion of fruit that may be infested with live T. leucotreta after application of the improved systems approach is no greater than the proportion of fruit that may be infested after application of a Probit 9 efficacy postharvest disinfestation treatment to fruit with a 2% pretreatment infestation. The probability of a mating pair surviving is also determined. The model enables a priori determination of the required threshold levels for any of the three measures, based on quantification of the other two measures.
Needed: A systems approach to improve flood risk mitigation through private precautionary measures
