Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen
adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a
reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and
most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides
an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk
identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods
used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis,
the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in
simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method
consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and
relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the
determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation
execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the
total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in
order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of
unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of
the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow
profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The
total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works,
earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte
Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal
Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding
needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative
effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.
A Hybrid Method for Evaluating of Lightning Performance of Overhead Lines based on Monte Carlo Procedure
