Economic cost is decisive for the development of different power generation. Life cycle cost (LCC) is a useful tool in calculating the cost at all life stages of electricity generation. This study improves the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model as the LCC calculation methods from three aspects, including considering the quantification of external cost, expanding the compositions of internal cost, and discounting power generation. The improved LCOE model is applied to three representative kinds of power generation, namely, coal-fired, biomass, and wind power in China, in the base year 2015. The external cost is quantified based on the ReCiPe model and an economic value conversion factor system. Results show that the internal cost of coal-fired, biomass, and wind power are 0.049, 0.098, and 0.081 USD/kWh, separately. With the quantification of external cost, the LCCs of the three are 0.275, 0.249, and 0.081 USD/kWh, respectively. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the discount rate and five cost factors, namely, the capital cost, raw material cost, operational and maintenance cost (O&M cost), other annual costs, and external costs. The results provide a quantitative reference for decision makings of electricity production and consumption.
Forecasting of wind energy technology domains based on the technology life cycle approach
