Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technologies through Hierarchical S Curves

This study aims to propose a technology forecasting approach based on hierarchical S-curves. The proposed approach uses holistic forecasting by evaluating the S-curves of sub-technologies as well as the main technology under concern. A case study of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies is conducted to demonstrate how the proposed approach works in practice. This is the first study that applies hierarchical S-curves to technology forecasting of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies in the literature. The future trend of the UAV technologies is analysed in detail through a hierarchical S-curve approach. Hierarchical S-curves are also utilised to investigate the sub-technologies of the UAV. In addition, the technology development life cycle of technology is assessed by using the three indexes namely, (1) the current technological maturity ratio (TMR), (2) estimating the number of potential patents that could be granted in the future (PPA), and (3) forecasting the expected remaining life (ERL). The results of this study indicate that the UAV technologies and their sub-technologies are at the growth stage in the technology life cycle, and most of the developments in UAV technology will have been completed by 2048. Hence, these technologies can be considered emerging technologies.

Space Bioprocess Engineering on the Horizon

Reinvigorated public interest in human space exploration has led to the need to address the science and engineering challenges described by NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges (STGCs) for expanding the human presence in space. Here we define Space Bioprocess Engineering (SBE) as a multi-disciplinary approach to design, realize, and manage a biologically-driven space mission as it relates to addressing the STGCs for advancing technologies to support the nutritional, medical, and incidental material requirements that will sustain astronauts against the harsh conditions of interplanetary transit and habitation offworld. SBE combines synthetic biology and bioprocess engineering under extreme constraints to enable and sustain a biological presence in space. Here we argue that SBE is a critical strategic area enabling long-term human space exploration; specify the metrics and methods that guide SBE technology life-cycle and development; map an approach by which SBE technologies are matured on offworld testing platforms; and suggest a means to train the next generation spacefaring workforce on the SBE advantages and capabilities. In doing so, we outline aspects of the upcoming technical and policy hurdles to support space biomanufacturing and biotechnology. We outline a perspective marriage between space-based performance metrics and the synthetic biology Design-Build-Test-Learn cycle as they relate to advancing the readiness of SBE technologies. We call for a concerted effort to ensure the timely development of SBE to support long-term crewed missions using mission plans that are currently on the horizon.

Space Bioprocess Engineering on the Horizon

Reinvigorated public interest in human space exploration has led to the need to address the science and engineering challenges described by NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges (STGCs) for expanding the human presence in space. Here we define Space Bioprocess Engineering (SBE) as a multi-disciplinary approach to design, realize, and manage a biologically-driven space mission as it relates to addressing the STGCs for advancing technologies to support the nutritional, medical, and incidental material requirements that will sustain astronauts against the harsh conditions of interplanetary transit and habitation offworld. SBE combines synthetic biology and bioprocess engineering under extreme constraints to enable and sustain a biological presence in space. Here we argue that SBE is a critical strategic area enabling long-term human space exploration; specify the metrics and methods that guide SBE technology life-cycle and development; map an approach by which SBE technologies are matured on offworld testing platforms; and suggest a means to train the next generation spacefaring workforce on the SBE advantages and capabilities. In doing so, we outline aspects of the upcoming technical and policy hurdles to support space biomanufacturing and biotechnology. We outline a perspective marriage between space-based performance metrics and the synthetic biology Design-Build-Test-Learn cycle as they relate to advancing the readiness of SBE technologies. We call for a concerted effort to ensure the timely development of SBE to support long-term crewed missions using mission plans that are currently on the horizon.

Designing for Bi-Directional Transparency in Human-AI-Robot-Teaming

This paper takes a practitioner’s perspective on advancing bi-directional transparency in human-AI-robot teams (HARTs). Bi-directional transparency is important for HARTs because the better that people and artificially intelligent agents can understand one another’s capabilities, limits, inputs, outputs and contexts in a given task environment; the better they can work as a team to accomplish shared goals, interdependent tasks, and overall missions. This understanding can be built, augmented, broken and repaired at various stages across the technology life cycle, including the conceptual design; iterative design of software, hardware and interfaces; marketing and sales; system training; operational use; and system updating and adaptation stages. This paper provides an overview of some best practices and challenges in building this bi-directional transparency at different points in the technology life cycle of human-AI-robot systems. The goal is to help advance a wider discussion and sharing of lessons learned from recent work in this area.

Intra-Soil Milling for Stable Evolution and High Productivity of Kastanozem Soil

The long-term field experiment on the Kastanozem showed that the standard moldboard plowing to a depth of 22 cm (control), chiseling to a depth of 35 cm, and three-tier plowing (machine type PTN–40) to a depth of 45 cm was incapable of providing a stable soil structure and aggregate system. The transcendental Biogeosystem Technique (BGT*) methodology for intra-soil milling of the 20–45 cm layer and the intra-soil milling PMS–70 machine were developed. The PMS–70 soil processing provided the content of 1–3 mm sized aggregate particle fraction in the illuvial horizon of about 50 to 60%, which was 3-fold higher compared to standard plowing systems. Soil bulk density reduced in the layer 20–40 cm to 1.35 t m−3 compared to 1.51 t m−3 in the control option. In the control, the rhizosphere developed only in the soil upper layer. There were 1.3 roots per cm−2 in 0–20 cm, and 0.2 roots per cm−2 in 20–40 cm. The rhizosphere spreads only through the soil crevices after chilling. After three-tier plowing (PTN–40), the rhizosphere developed better in the local comfort zones of the soil profile between soil blocks impermeable for roots. After intra-soil milling PMS–70, the rhizosphere developed uniformly in the whole soil profile: 2.2 roots per cm−2 in 0–20 cm; 1.7 roots per cm−2 in 20–40 cm. Matric water potential was higher, soil salinization was lower, and the pH was close to neutral. Soil organic matter (SOM) content increased to 3.3% in 0–20 cm and 2.1% in 20–40 cm compared to the control (2.0% in the 0–20 cm soil layer and 1.3% in the 20–40 cm layer). The spring barley yield was 53% higher compared to the control. The technology life cycle profitability was moldboard 21.5%, chiseling 6.9%, three-tier 15.6%, and intra-soil milling 45.6%. The new design of the intra-soil milling machine provides five times less traction resistance and 80% increased reliability, halving energy costs.

Technological Advances to Reduce Apis mellifera Mortality: A Bibliometric Analysis

Bees play a fundamental role in the ecological balance of ecosystems, due to the pollination process they carry out on crops, including the production of honey. However, the mortality of bees is a significant concern; bee mortality can occur for several reasons, such as pesticides, mites, viruses, climate change, pathogens and a reduction in food resources and nests. The honey bee (Apis mellifera) is the most widely used bee for commercial pollination and honey production. Therefore, the main objective is to compare the development of patent families and article publications related to the reduction in A. meliífera mortality. Data on patent families were collected on the Orbit platform, while data on scientific articles were collected on the Scopus database, with a time interval of 1980–2019. Subsequently, the data were analyzed in order to show the main priority countries, main assignees, and main IPC (International Patent Classification) codes, an analysis of the technology life cycle and the correlation between the data of patent families and articles published. The technologies that help to decrease bee mortality showed a technological maturity rate of 27.15% for patent families data and 53.35% for data from articles published in journals. It was noticed that the principal interest regarding the reduction in A. mellifera mortality is focused on universities, mainly in the United States and China.

Technology Readiness Level as the Foundation of Human Readiness Level

Communication of the maturity of technology through the program/product life cycles helps enhance risk management from the beginning and support decision-making strategies for research, development, and allocation of resources. Currently, many organizations use the technology readiness level (TRL) as a simple metric to indicate the maturity of the technology. This article will discuss the TRL history, define the TRL levels, show how the TRL relates to the technology life cycle, and how the TRL framework contributes to the human readiness level (HRL) structure. Through the TRL advantages and disadvantages, this article will show how the TRL falls short in numerous areas of engineering, including the integration readiness of system/subsystem components and assessment of the readiness of the technology to operate within the human capabilities and limitations. Yet the article also shows how the TRL serves as the foundation for HRL.