scholarly journals Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1603653 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Mhlaba ◽  
A. Phiri ◽  
Christian Nsiah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
New Evidence

scholarly journals Relative Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth in South Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 193672442098041
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the debt-growth nexus by testing both the impact of aggregate public debt on economic growth and the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth using South Africa as the case study—from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the findings reveal that the impact of aggregated public debt on economic growth in South Africa is statistically significant and negative, both in the short run and in the long run. The results further reveal that domestic public debt and economic growth have a statistically significant and positive relationship in the short run only. Furthermore, foreign public debt has a statistically significant and negative relationship with economic growth but only in the long run. Therefore, the study recommends the government to manage effectively its debt and to finance long-term high-returning productive investments that should translate into economic growth. Finally, the study cautions the country against growing public debt, predominantly foreign debt, to finance its increasing recurrent expenditure needs.

scholarly journals Is Public Debt Harmful Towards Economic Growth? New Evidence from Sri Lanka

Staff Studies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Thilak Ranjeewa Priyadarshana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
New Evidence

scholarly journals Can public debt stimulate public investment and economic growth in South Africa?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1516483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thobeka Ncanywa ◽  
Marius Mamokgaetji Masoga ◽  
Christian Nsiah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Investment

scholarly journals Causality Between Public Debt, Public Debt Service and Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThis paper explores the causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth in South Africa covering the period 1970 – 2017. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the multivariate Granger-causality test. The empirical results indicate that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to public debt, but only in the short run. However, the study fails to establish any causality between public debt service and economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In line with the empirical evidence, the study concludes that it is economic growth that drives public debt in South Africa, and that the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth is sensitive to the timeframe considered. The paper recommends policymakers in South Africa to consider growth-enhancing policies in the short run, since poor economic performances may lead to high public debt levels.

scholarly journals Does Public Debt Matter For Economic Growth?: Evidence From South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosra Baaziz ◽  
Khaled Guesmi ◽  
David Heller ◽  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Macroeconomic Control

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between accumulated public debt ratio and real GDP growth in the South African economy over the period 1980-2014. Using two macroeconomic control variables – inflation rate and Openness trade – the link between public debt and real GDP growth is found to depend upon the level of indebtedness of the country. Indeed, public debt in South Africa becomes an impediment to economic growth if it crosses the limit of 31.37% of GDP. Our empirical results have therefore important implications for fiscal policymakers in South Africa to foster economic growth in a context of high public debt level.

Investigating asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression (STAR) approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Lorraine Greyling
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

PurposeThe primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa.FindingsThe findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity.Originality/valueThis paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.

Public Debt Service in South Africa and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Empirical Test

2020 ◽  
pp. 003464462096022
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

By applying the autoregressive distributed lag approach, this article investigates the dynamic impact of public debt service on economic growth in South Africa, covering the period from 1970 to 2017. In the recent past, alarming bells have already started sounding about the country’s high debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio amid chronic low GDP growth. The article seeks to contribute to the debate that limiting the proportion of public debt service payments to gross national product can achieve economic growth by freeing domestic resources. The empirical findings of the study show that there is no statistically significant relationship between public debt service and economic growth in South Africa, irrespective of whether the estimations are done in the long run or in the short run. Policy implications are discussed.

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