real gdp
Recently Published Documents


TOTAL DOCUMENTS

1080
(FIVE YEARS 375)

H-INDEX

37
(FIVE YEARS 5)

2022 ◽  
pp. 126-146
Author(s):  
S. G. Marichev

The paper attempts to estimate, in monetary terms, the volume of free digital services in GDP while assessing the contribution of digitalization to changes in welfare and economic growth. Approaches to such an estimation are analyzed and criticized. In particular, the calculation of the added value created in the digital sector does not properly reflect the economic effect of digitalization. Alternative auxiliary methods for estimating the contribution of digitalization to GDP growth are considered: the creation of satellite accounts of the digital economy within the SNA; the categorization and calculation of “purely” digital goods. The paper analyzes the methodology of calculating GDP which takes into account consumer surpluses from the use of free digital goods. The advantages of this methodology are outlined, including the consideration of a significant part of the digital sector of the economy in the calculation of GDP, as well as the relative ease of its use. This methodology was tested by drawing on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan.


2022 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manan Jain

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine whether the theory of sector rotation has been empirically valid in the Indian equity market, during the period April, 2000 to March, 2020. The time period has been divided into many sub-periods according to the real GDP growth rate and the annualized returns of eleven stock market indices have been analyzed in different periods. Going forward, leading macroeconomic indicators, which coincide with overall economy, have been taken and their association with stock market indices have been analyzed through statistical measures to assess any possible forecasting. In the first part of the study, cyclical and non-cyclical sectors have been found to beat the benchmark index during periods of growth and stagnancy, respectively, but no particular ordinality was observed. Amongst the leading economic variables, M3 Money Supply was found to have high degree of association with some indices, namely Sensex, Healthcare, CDGS, Consumer Durables and IT, but no linear relation was observed.


Author(s):  
S. Yu. Babenkova

The Qatar National Vision 2030 program is based on two principles — modernization and preservation of traditions. Blockade of the country in 2017–2020 and the coronavirus pandemic became a serious test for the economy of Qatar, but the government and residents of the country do not consider themselves defeated by these circumstances, but on the contrary, these circumstances helped the country’s economy to survive the above crises. In 2019, the International Monetary Fund said that Qatar’s economy was resilient in the face of the blockade and shocks caused, including by the fall in hydrocarbon prices in 2014–2016. The events of the global economic crisis caused by the pandemic have posed another challenge to the financial and banking system of Qatar. Thanks to the measures of the country’s government aimed at ensuring business continuity, maintaining liquidity and providing support to the sectors of the economy affected by the pandemic, it was possible to mitigate the impact of this shock, support cash flows, and achieve financial and banking stability in the country. However, according to fund analysts, COVID–19 and a sharp drop in hydrocarbon revenues will lead to a reduction in real GDP growth by 2% in 2020. At the same time, future profits from hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2022, continued expansion of capacities in production of liquefied gas and competent fiscal and monetary policy will contribute to economic growth in the country in the medium term.


Econometrics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Philip Hans Franses ◽  
Max Welz

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.


2022 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 222-230
Author(s):  
Svitlana Kachula ◽  
Maksym Zhytar ◽  
Larysa Sidelnykova ◽  
Oksana Perchuk ◽  
Olena Novosolova

The paper examines the relationship between economic growth and banking sector indicators in Ukraine. The constructed empirical model revealed a positive impact of bank deposits on real GDP growth. The causal relationships between economic growth in Ukraine and the performance of the banking sector are analyzed using the Granger Causality Test. It is established that banking deposits Granger-cause GDP, while banking credits do not, but GDP has an effect on banking credits. It is noted that the banking sector of Ukraine does not play a significant role in the redistribution of capital in the intersectoral and spatial dimensions. It is defined limiting factors of lending to the private sector and ways to increase the deposit base of banks.


2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ovikuomagbe Oyedele

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.


2022 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-107
Author(s):  
Atif Ali Jaffri ◽  
Moniba Sana ◽  
Asadullah Khan

This study has empirically investigated impact of globalization on aggregate and agricultural employment in Pakistan for the data period 1986-2017. Globalization is proxied by variables trade openness, foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances and exchange rate. Other explanatory variables are real GDP, gender based wage gap and labor force. The study has applied Johansen’ cointegration technique and Error Correction Model to estimate the long run and short run relationships. The findings of the study indicate that in the long run trade openness has negative whereas FDI has positive effect on aggregate as well as agricultural employment in Pakistan during the data period. Interestingly, exchange rate and workers’ remittances affect aggregate and agricultural employment differently. Other important finding is that real GDP and gender based wage gap also deteriorate aggregate and agricultural employment in Pakistan. The study concluded that globalization in the form of trade openness has not supported employment whereas FDI enhanced employment in Pakistan. Policy makers need to consider sector specific effects of globalization while designing policies to achieve inclusive growth in Pakistan.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
Omkar Poudel ◽  
Khom Raj Kharel ◽  
Yadav Mani Upadhyay

Agriculture sector is the main components of economic development of developing countries likeNepal. This sector contributes boosting economy in terms of GDP, employment and food security,as more than 60% of Nepalese residents chose agriculture as their primary source of income. Theincrease in output and productivity in this sector is crucial for reducing poverty through long-term,high-growth economic growth. Increased agricultural production and output are important contrib-utors to the country's overall economic development. This study aims to look at how the agriculturesector contributes to the Nepalese economy's growth. Using data collected over a 20-year period,a simple linear regression model has applied to determine the economic impact of farm sector pro-duction on real GDP. The study finds a positive impact of agriculture sector on real GDP and othersectors. Though, agriculture sector has been facing diversified challenges improving its productionin Nepal.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ooi Kok Loang ◽  
Zamri Ahmad

PurposeThis study examines the impact of firm-specific information and macroeconomic variables on market overreaction of US and Chinese winner and loser portfolio before and during COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThe firm-specific information includes firm size, volume, volatility, return of asset (ROA), return of equity (ROE), earning per share (EPS) and quick ratio while the macroeconomic variables are export rate, import rate, real GDP, nominal GDP, FDI, IPI and unemployment rate. Besides, one-third of the top performance stocks are categorized as winner portfolio while one-third of lowest performance stocks are categorized as loser portfolio. This study uses AECR to indicate stock return and measure market overreaction. GAECR is used to determine contrarian profit. The data range of pre-COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2015 to 31-Dec-2019 while the period of COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2020 to 31-Dec-2020.FindingsIn pre-COVID-19, firm-specific information (volatility, ROA, ROE and EPS) and macroeconomic variables are found to be correlated to stock return in US and Chinese portfolios except Chinese winner portfolio. Nonetheless, the impact of firm-specific information has vanished and macroeconomic variables are significant to stock return in COVID-19. It shows that investors rely on the economic indicators to trade in turbulent period due to emergence of COVID-19 as a disruption in market. Furthermore, US and Chinese portfolios are overreacted during COVID-19. Chinese loser portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than US loser portfolio while US winner portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than Chinese winner portfolio.Originality/valueThe results of this study assists academician, practitioners and investors on understanding and create awareness to the existence of market overreaction and the determinants that can cause the phenomenon.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 103-115
Author(s):  
Olga Vinogradova

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, real GDP of Russia is expected to fall by 4-6%. The banking industry provides liquidity to Russian business in times of hardship. On the one hand, the Bank of Russia facilitates lending opportunities for the business and subsidizes the mortgage interest rate for banks and the public in order to prevent business bankruptcies. And on the other hand, it provides liquidity to banks via REPO (repurchase agreement) auctions. Currently, there is not enough demand for REPO transactions from banks, but it might increase after other measures of support begin to be canceled. The article studies the effectiveness of current forbearance measures for Russian banks and provides an insight into the future development of the banking industry after the COVID-19 pandemic.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document