Climate change in world is always one of the most important topics in Water Resources. Now the issue is so predominant that it is gradually restricting out social life, peace and harmony. Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather pattern of an area, when such changes occur for a long period of time. Weather is the state of atmosphere at a particular place and time. Climate is the long term statistical expression of short term weather. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the future climate pattern/weather prediction by taking different climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity by using time series analysis. The study area of research work covers the coastal districts of Odisha and some parts of Andhra Pradesh. The climatic parameters are collected over last 20 years (1993-2013) from the selected 10 stations and the prediction is made using Time Series Analysis (ARIMA Model). The annual maximum temperature, solar radiation of all districts indicates a statistically significant increase in trend, whereas in the case of wind speed and relative humidity indicates significant deceasing trend. The annual rain fall shows an increasing trend of 2.69 mm/year in all station except Srikakulam, Khordha, Jagatsinghpur and Balasore which shows a decreasing trend of 1.94, 1.29, 0.56 and 1.18 mm/year respectively. As a whole the annual maximum temperature and solar radiation shows an increase trend of 0.16 ⁰C and 0.073 MJ/m² per year respectively. Further the wind speed and relative humidity of all stations indicates a decreasing trend of 0.056 m/s and 0.003(Units in fraction) per year respectively.
Study on Modeling of Short-term Wind speed Forecasting based on Time Series Analysis
