scholarly journals Attack path prediction based on Bayesian game model

2021 ◽  
Vol 1955 (1) ◽  
pp. 012098
Author(s):  
Pengyu Sun ◽  
Hengwei Zhang ◽  
Chenwei Li
Author(s):  
SOU-SEN LEU ◽  
PHAM VU HONG SON ◽  
P. E. JUI-SHENG CHOU ◽  
PHAM THI HONG NHUNG

Construction procurement is a key business where price negotiation is commonly required to reach final contractual agreement. However, even simple negotiations often result in infeasible agreements. The uncertain and limited supplier information as well as complex correlations among various factors affecting supplier behaviors make the contractor difficult to decide the appropriate offer price (OP) and vice versa. This study proposes a novel Fuzzy Bayesian Game Model (FBGM) for improving the prediction effectiveness of negotiation behaviors. The performance of the proposed FBGM was evaluated in the case where an agent uses the counter-OP of an opponent to learn the negotiation strategy of the opponent. The validation analysis shows that the sequential updating process of FBGM significantly improves the estimation ability of negotiators. The proposed model also gives a comprehensive view of negotiation scenarios by considering all possible negotiation cases. Using FBGM, negotiators can apply flexible strategies to optimize their own profit with a reasonable negotiation time.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 66-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce C. Hartman ◽  
Christopher Clott
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Yazhuo Gao ◽  
Guomin Zhang ◽  
Changyou Xing

As an important deception defense method, a honeypot can be used to enhance the network’s active defense capability effectively. However, the existing rigid deployment method makes it difficult to deal with the uncertain strategic attack behaviors of the attackers. To solve such a problem, we propose a multiphase dynamic deployment mechanism of virtualized honeypots (MD2VH) based on the intelligent attack path prediction method. MD2VH depicts the attack and defense characteristics of both attackers and defenders through the Bayesian state attack graph, establishes a multiphase dynamic deployment optimization model of the virtualized honeypots based on the extended Markov’s decision-making process, and generates the deployment strategies dynamically by combining the online and offline reinforcement learning methods. Besides, we also implement a prototype system based on software-defined network and virtualization container, so as to evaluate the effectiveness of MD2VH. Experiments results show that the capture rate of MD2VH is maintained at about 90% in the case of both simple topology and complex topology. Compared with the simple intelligent deployment strategy, such a metric is increased by 20% to 60%, and the result is more stable under different types of the attacker’s strategy.


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