scholarly journals Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 114010
Author(s):  
Kilian Kuhla ◽  
Sven Norman Willner ◽  
Christian Otto ◽  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Weather Extremes

Single vs. concurrent extreme events: Economic resonance of weather extremes increases impact on societal welfare loss

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kilian Kuhla ◽  
Sven Willner ◽  
Christian Otto ◽  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Response Dynamics ◽  
Event Category

<p>Weather extremes such as heat waves, tropical cyclones and river floods are likely to intensify with increasing global mean temperature. In a globally connected supply and trade network such extreme weather events cause economic shocks that may interfere with each other potentially amplifying their overall economic impact.</p><p>Here we analyze the economic resonance of concurrent extreme events, that is the overlapping of economic response dynamics of more than one extreme event category both spatially and temporally. In our analysis we focus on the event categories heat stress, river floods and tropical cyclones. We simulate the regional (direct) and global (indirect via supply chains) economic losses and gains for each extreme event category individually as well as for their concurrent occurrence for the next two decades. Thus we compare the outcome of the sum of the three single simulations to the outcome of the concurrent simulation. Here we show that the global welfare loss due to concurrent weather extremes is increased by more than 17% due to market effects compared to the summation of the losses of each single event category. Overall, this economic resonance yields a non-linearly enhanced price effect, which leads to a stronger economic impact. As well as a highly heterogeneous distribution of the amplification of regional welfare losses among countries.</p><p>Our analysis is based on the climate models of the CMIP5 ensemble which have been bias-corrected within the ISIMIP2b project towards an observation-based data set using a trend-preserving method. From these we use RCP2.6 and 6.0 for future climate projections. We transfer the three extreme weather event categories to a daily, regional and sectoral production failure. Our agent-based dynamic economic loss-propagation model <em>Acclimate</em> then uses these local production failures to compute the immediate response dynamics within the global supply chain as well as the subsequent trade adjustments. The <em>Acclimate</em> model thereby depicts a highly interconnected network of firms and consumers, which maximize their profits by choosing the optimal production level and corresponding upstream demand as well as the optimal distribution of this demand among its suppliers; transport and storage inventories act as buffers for supply shocks. The model accounts for local price changes, and supply and demand mismatches are resolved explicitly over time.</p><p>Our results suggest that economic impacts of weather extremes are larger than can be derived from conventional single event analysis. Consequently the societal cost of climate change are likely to be underestimated in studies focusing on single extreme categories.</p>

The Effect of Groundwater Allocation on Economic Welfare Loss

Ground Water ◽  
2012 ◽  
pp. no-no ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Wan ◽  
Yi-Chen E. Yang ◽  
Yu-Feng F. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Economic Welfare

scholarly journals Impact of alternative regional trade arrangements on the Ethiopian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Habtamu Shiferaw Amogne ◽  
Taiji Hagiwara
Keyword(s):  
Transition Period ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Endowment Effect ◽  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Saving Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade And Investment

AbstractThe Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European Partnership Agreement (EPA) on the economy of Ethiopia. The analysis is based on a static Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, version 9 database. Unlike previous studies, the customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System (HS) level. COMESA FTA (scenario 1) with standard GTAP model results in a welfare loss for Ethiopia due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect, but with unemployment closure (scenario 2); Ethiopia enjoys a welfare gain mainly due to endowment effect. In scenario 3 (COMESA customs union) and scenario 4 (European Partnership Agreement), Ethiopia loses due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect. There is a large increase in demand for unskilled labor force in Ethiopia by around US$23 million, US$112 million, and US$43 million for scenario 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Moreover, there is a positive output effect for oilseeds, leather, and basic metals across all scenarios. The world, as a whole, enjoys welfare gains with COMESA FTA (scenario 1 and 2). However, with scenario 3 and 4, there is an overall welfare loss. There is no strong reason for Ethiopia to move to the customs union, and the EPA in the short run. Therefore, a transition period is necessary, but it is recommended for Ethiopia to join COMESA FTA.

Ethnic identity and economic welfare

2021 ◽  
pp. 100888
Author(s):  
Sinem Bağçe ◽  
Ensar Yılmaz ◽  
İbrahim Engin Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Economic Welfare

A proposal to enhance national capability to manage epidemics: The critical importance of expert statistical input including official statistics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
N.I. Fisher ◽  
D.J. Trewin
Keyword(s):  
Data Streams ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
High Level ◽  
Integration Analysis

Given the high level of global mobility, pandemics are likely to be more frequent, and with potentially devastating consequences for our way of life. With COVID-19, Australia is in relatively better shape than most other countries and is generally regarded as having managed the pandemic well. That said, we believe there is a critical need to start the process of learning from this pandemic to improve the quantitative information and related advice provided to policy makers. A dispassionate assessment of Australia’s health and economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic reveals some important inadequacies in the data, statistical analysis and interpretation used to guide Australia’s preparations and actions. For example, one key shortcoming has been the lack of data to obtain an early understanding of the extent of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases or the differences across age groups, occupations or ethnic groups. Minimising the combined health, social and economic impacts of a novel virus depends critically on ongoing acquisition, integration, analysis, interpretation and presentation of a variety of data streams to inform the development, execution and monitoring of appropriate strategies. The article captures the essential quantitative components of such an approach for each of the four basic phases, from initial detection to post-pandemic. It also outlines the critical steps in each stage to enable policy makers to deal more efficiently and effectively with future such events, thus enhancing both the social and the economic welfare of its people. Although written in an Australian context, we believe most elements would apply to other countries as well.

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