Abstract
Long-term care expenditure is expected to rise, driven by an ageing population. Given that public long-term care expenditure is high in many OECD countries, governments are increasingly concerned about its future growth. This study focuses on three relevant issues. First, we discuss factors that affect the growth of long-term expenditure and its projections. These include demographics, the balance in provision between informal and formal care, whether higher life expectancy translates into higher disability, the interrelation between health and long-term care, and whether long-term care suffers from Baumol’s disease. Second, given that a significant proportion of long-term care expenditure is nursing- and care-home expenditure, we discuss the role of government regulation aimed at ensuring that individuals receive appropriate quality of care in such institutions. We focus in particular on price regulation, competition, and the non-profit sector; these have been the subject of considerable empirical work (mainly in the United States). Third, we discuss the relative merits of public and private insurance. Countries differ greatly in their approach. Some countries have nearly exclusively public insurance but in others this is small. We consider the conditions under which public insurance can overcome the limitations of a private insurance market.
A Study on the Trend and Problems of Privatization of Long-Term Care Systems