Unfinished Business

In 2009, the U.S. and other G20 nations agreed on reforms designed to improve the regulation of systemically important financial institutions and markets. However, those reforms did not change the fundamental structure of the financial system, which continues to be dominated by universal banks and large shadow banks. Those giant institutions are too big, too complex, and too opaque to be effectively managed by their executives or adequately disciplined by market participants and regulators. In addition, government officials have failed to hold top executives accountable for widespread misconduct at financial giants during and after the financial crisis. The extensive networks linking capital markets, universal banks, and shadow banks create a strong probability that serious problems arising in one financial sector will spill over into other sectors and trigger a systemic crisis. Consequently, governments face enormous pressures to rescue universal banks and large shadow banks whenever a financial disruption occurs. There are serious doubts whether many governments and central banks will possess the necessary resources in the future to provide comprehensive bailouts similar to those arranged during the last crisis. Accordingly, the next systemic financial crisis might not be contained and could potentially lead to a second Great Depression.