New Keynesians and Inflation

Author(s):  
Christopher Tsoukis

This chapter reviews the basic tenets of the New Keynesians (NK); i.e. the school of thought that sought to preserve the insights of Keynes on the desirability of activist stabilization policy, but taking on board the methodological and other advances of the New Classicals. As markets do not clear due to price stickiness, the latter is thoroughly reviewed: causes, including ‘menu costs’, empirical evidence, and implications for price level dynamics are outlined. Other models of wage rigidity as well as new directions of NK theory are also reviewed. Furthermore, the chapter reviews inflation: its costs, causes, and recent ‘great moderation’. It concludes with a critical analysis of the NK model of inflation, and with a review of how this model of inflation can be incorporated into a baseline ‘three-equation New Keynesian model’.

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Elias

This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations (HE). Agents form expectations via Euler equation adaptive learning (AL) and differ by the model they use to forecast. Type A agents use a correctly specified model, while type B and type C agents use misspecified models. Quarterly US data from the pre-Great Moderation and Great Moderation periods are used to jointly estimate the degree of agent heterogeneity, the AL parameters, and the deep model parameters. Results show that the data exhibit significant expectational heterogeneity, and that the HE model fits the data better than a model with homogeneous agent AL.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Canova ◽  
Luca Gambetti

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E32)


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