Forecasting the Equity Premium: Mind the News!*

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1313-1355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Adämmer ◽  
Rainer A Schüssler
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Economic News ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Data Adaptive ◽  
Novel Strategy ◽  
Economic Predictors

Abstract We introduce a novel strategy to predict monthly equity premia that is based on extracted news from more than 700,000 newspaper articles, which were published in The New York Times and Washington Post between 1980 and 2018. We propose a flexible data-adaptive switching approach to map a large set of different news-topics into forecasts of aggregate stock returns. The information that is embedded in our extracted news is not captured by established economic predictors. Compared with the prevailing historical mean between 1999 and 2018, we find large out-of-sample (OOS) gains with an ROOS2 of 6.52% and sizeable utility gains for a mean–variance investor. The empirical results indicate that geopolitical news are at times more valuable than economic news to predict the equity premium and we also find that forecasting gains arise in down markets.

scholarly journals The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamir Levy ◽  
Joseph Yagil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

Inhaltsanalyse elektronisch gespeicherter Massendaten der internationalen Presse

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 98-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Galliker ◽  
Jan Herman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York Times

Zusammenfassung. Am Beispiel der Repräsentation von Mann und Frau in der Times und in der New York Times wird ein inhaltsanalytisches Verfahren vorgestellt, das sich besonders für die Untersuchung elektronisch gespeicherter Printmedien eignet. Unter Co-Occurrence-Analyse wird die systematische Untersuchung verbaler Kombinationen pro Zähleinheit verstanden. Diskutiert wird das Problem der Auswahl der bei der Auswertung und Darstellung der Ergebnisse berücksichtigten semantischen Einheiten.

Good Coverage: New York Times: And Still, Echoes of a Death Long Past

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Goode
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Good Coverage

Gender Differences in coverage of the 2004 Summer Olympics by the Los Angeles Times and New York Times

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Pratt ◽  
Kris Grappendorf ◽  
Ginger Leblanc ◽  
Amy Grundvig
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
New York ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Los Angeles Times

The Portrayal of Islam and Muslims in Western Media: A Critical Discourse Analysis

Cultura ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-73
Author(s):  
Saman REZAEI ◽  
Kamyar KOBARI ◽  
Ali SALAMI
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Critical Discourse ◽  
Cognitive Approach ◽  
Global Village ◽  
Online Newspapers ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Western Media

With the realization of the promised global village, media, particularly online newspapers, play a significant role in delivering news to the world. However, such means of news circulation can propagate different ideologies in line with the dominant power. This, coupled with the emergence of so-called Islamic terrorist groups, has turned the focus largely on Islam and Muslims. This study attempts to shed light on the image of Islam being portrayed in Western societies through a Critical Discourse Analysis approach. To this end, a number of headlines about Islam or Muslims have been randomly culled from three leading newspapers in Western print media namely The Guardian, The Independent and The New York Times (2015). This study utilizes “ideological square” notion of Van Dijk characterized by “positive presentation” of selves and “negative presentation” of others alongside his socio-cognitive approach. Moreover, this study will take the linguistic discourses introduced by Van Leeuwen regarding “representing social actors and social practices” into consideration. The findings can be employed to unravel the mystery behind the concept of “Islamophobia” in Western societies. Besides, it can reveal how specific lexical items, as well as grammatical structures are being employed by Western media to distort the notion of impartiality.

Forecasting Stock Returns: New Out-of-Sample Evidence

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Lettau ◽  
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Out Of Sample
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