A new prognostic scoring system for severe acute pancreatitis*

Background: Pancreatitis can lead to serious complications with severe morbidity and mortality. So an early, quick and accurate scoring system is necessary to stratify the patients according to their severity so as to enable early initiation of required management and care. Scoring system commonly used have some drawbacks. This study aimed to compare bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and Ranson’s score to predict severe acute pancreatitis and establish the validity of a simple and accurate clinical scoring system for stratifying patients.Methods: This is a prospective comparative study on 100 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis admitted in department of general surgery. Parameters included in the BISAP and Ranson’s criteria were studied at the time of admission and after 48 hours. Result of these two were compared with that of revised Atlanta classification.Results: As per the BISAP score, the sensitivity and specificity were 95.8 % (95% CI, 76.8-99.8), 94.7 % (95% CI, 86.3-98.3) whereas positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio 18.21 (95% CI, 6.9-47.44), 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.30) and accuracy was 95 % (95% CI, 88.72%-98.36%). On using Ranson’s score, the sensitivity and specificity were 91.6 (95% CI, 71.5-98.5) and 89.4 (95% CI, 79.8-95) with a positive predictive value 8.71 (95% CI, 4.47-18.96) and negative predictive value of 0.09 (95% CI, 0.02-0.35) and accuracy of 90% (95% CI, 82.38%-95.10%)..Conclusions: BISAP score outperformed Ranson’s score in terms of Sensitivity and specificity of prediction of severe pancreatitis. The authors recommend inclusion of BISAP Scoring system in standard treatment protocol of management of acute pancreatitis.

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Comparison of BISAP score with Ranson’s score in predicting severe acute pancreatitis

Journal of Society of Surgeons of Nepal ◽

10.3126/jssn.v18i3.15306 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 44

Author(s):

D Karki ◽

T Tamang ◽

D Maharjan ◽

P Thapa ◽

S Shrestha

Keyword(s):

Acute Pancreatitis ◽

Severe Acute Pancreatitis ◽

Scoring System ◽

Laboratory Data ◽

P Value ◽

Severe Pancreatitis ◽

Common Etiology ◽

Sensitivity Specificity

Objectives: To compare BISAP score with Ranson’s scoring in predicting severity of acute pancreatitisMethods: Extensive demographic, radiographic, and laboratory data from consecutive patients with AP admitted to our institution was collected between March 2014 to March 2015. Ranson’s and BISAP score was calculated. Severity of pancreatitis was defined according to Atlanta classification. Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, NPV of both the scoring system was calculated and compared.Results: A total of 42 patients with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included during the study period. 21(50%) were male and 21(50%) were female. Mean age is 49.52 ± 17.37.Most common etiology was biliary (45%) followed by alcohol (31%). 20 (48%) patients were categorized as severe pancreatitis according to Atlanta classification. 21 (50%) patients had a Ranson’s score of ≥3 and 19 (45.24%) patients had a BISAP score of ≥3. Both Ranson’s and BISAP scoring system was statistically significant in determining SAP ( p-value = 0.002). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of Ranson’s and BISAP score was calculated to be 75%, 72.72%, 71.43%, 76.19% and 70%, 77.27%, 73.68%, 73.91%. respectively. The AUC for SAP by Ranson’s score is 0.7386 ; 95%CI (0.602 - 0.874) and BISAP score is 0.7364 ; 95% CI ( 0.599 - 0.872).Conclusions: Both Ranson’s and BISAP scoring system is similar in predicting SAP. However BISAP has the advantage due to its simplicity.

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