scholarly journals Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds

2006 ◽  
Vol 274 (1607) ◽  
pp. 269-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niclas Jonzén ◽  
Anders Hedenström ◽  
Per Lundberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Life History Evolution ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Arrival Date ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean

Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e.g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained.

scholarly journals Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1807) ◽  
pp. 20150288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadiah Pardede Kristensen ◽  
Jacob Johansson ◽  
Jörgen Ripa ◽  
Niclas Jonzén
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Hatching Date ◽  
Arrival Date ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Asynchronous Hatching

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.

scholarly journals Birds facing climate change: a qualitative model for the adaptive potential of migratory behaviour

2015 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelangelo Morganti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Qualitative Model ◽  
Migratory Behaviour ◽  
Adaptive Potential ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Genetic Determination ◽  
Recent Climate

Recent climate change is altering the migratory behaviour of many bird species. An advancement in the timing of spring events and a shift in the geographical distribution have been detected for birds around the world. In particular, intra-Palearctic migratory birds have advanced arrivals in spring and shortened migratory distances by shifting northward their wintering grounds. These changes in migratory patterns are considered adaptive responses facilitating the adjustment of the life cycle to the phenological changes found in their breeding areas. However, in some cases, populations exposed to the same selective pressures do not show any appreciable adaptive change in their behaviour. Basing on the comparison of realized and non-realized adaptive changes, I propose here the formulation of a qualitative model that predicts the potential of migratory birds populations to change adaptively their migratory behaviour. The model assumes that the adaptive potential of migratory behaviour is fuelled by both genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity. Populations of long-distance migrants are exposed to strong environmental canalization that largely eroded their phenotypic plasticity and reduced genetic variability, so that they show a very low amount of adaptive potential regarding migratory behaviour. On the contrary, partial-migrant populations have a highly varied genetic profile and are more plastic at the phenotypic level, and consequently show the highest amount of adaptive potential. Species with mainly social and mainly genetic determination of the migratory behaviour are separately treated in the model. Specific empirical models to foresee the adaptive strategies of wild bird populations that face to climate change can be derived from the general theoretical model. As example, a specific model about the shortening of migratory distances in Western European migratory bird is presented. Finally, a number of future research lines on the topic of adaptive potential of migratory behaviour are discussed, including some examples of concrete study cases. In conclusion, partial-migration emerge as the less known system and future research efforts on this topic are expected to be especially fruitful.

scholarly journals ANALYSES OF THE AGE OF GENES AND THE FIRST ARRIVAL TIMES IN A FINITE POPULATION

Genetics ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 105 (4) ◽  
pp. 1041-1059
Author(s):  
Takeo Maruyama ◽  
Paul A Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Arrival Time ◽  
Mutant Gene ◽  
Intermediate Frequency ◽  
Lag Phase ◽  
Reversal Theory ◽  
Infinite Allele Model ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
First Arrival Time

ABSTRACT The age of a mutant gene is studied using the infinite allele model in which every mutant is new and selectively neutral. Based on a time reversal theory of Markov processes, we develop a method of mathematical analysis that is considerably simpler for calculating the various statistics of the age than previous methods. Formulas for the mean and variance and for the distribution of age are presented together with some examples of relevance to cases in natural populations.—Theoretical studies of the first arrival time of an allele to a specified frequency, given an initially monomorphic condition of the locus, are presented. It is shown that, beginning with an allele that has frequency p = 1 or an allele with frequency p = 1/2N, there is an initial lag phase in which there is virtually no chance of an allele with a specified intermediate frequency appearing in the population. The distribution of the first arrival time is also presented. The distribution shows several characteristics that are not immediately obvious from a consideration of only the mean and variance of first arrival time. Especially noteworthy is the existence of a very long tail to the distribution. We have also studied the distribution of the age of an allele in the population. Again, the distribution of this measure is shown to be more informative for several questions than are the mean and variance alone.

Climate change and shifting arrival date of migratory birds over a century in the northern Great Plains

2015 ◽  
Vol 127 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven E. Travers ◽  
Bryan Marquardt ◽  
Nicole J. Zerr ◽  
James B. Finch ◽  
Mikayla J. Boche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Arrival Date

Evaluation of simulated recent climate change in Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Bhend ◽  
Penny Whetton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate

DEATH ASSEMBLAGES AS RECORDERS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE CONTINENTAL SHELF

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric N. Powell ◽  
◽  
Kelsey Kuykendall ◽  
Paula Moreno ◽  
Sara Pace
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Recent Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Death Assemblages

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and industrialization on Lake Bolshoe Toko, eastern Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-352
Author(s):  
Boris K. Biskaborn ◽  
Biljana Narancic ◽  
Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring ◽  
Lyudmila A. Pestryakova ◽  
Peter G. Appleby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Boreal Lakes ◽  
Lake Ecosystem ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
Eastern Siberia ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Planktonic Diatoms ◽  
Recent Climate

AbstractIndustrialization in the Northern Hemisphere has led to warming and pollution of natural ecosystems. We used paleolimnological methods to explore whether recent climate change and/or pollution had affected a very remote lake ecosystem, i.e. one without nearby direct human influence. We compared sediment samples that date from before and after the onset of industrialization in the mid-nineteenth century, from four short cores taken at water depths between 12.1 and 68.3 m in Lake Bolshoe Toko, eastern Siberia. We analyzed diatom assemblage changes, including diversity estimates, in all four cores and geochemical changes (mercury, nitrogen, organic carbon) from one core taken at an intermediate water depth. Chronologies for two cores were established using 210Pb and 137Cs. Sedimentation rates were 0.018 and 0.033 cm year−1 at the shallow- and deep-water sites, respectively. We discovered an increase in light planktonic diatoms (Cyclotella) and a decrease in heavily silicified euplanktonic Aulacoseira through time at deep-water sites, related to more recent warmer air temperatures and shorter periods of lake-ice cover, which led to pronounced thermal stratification. Diatom beta diversity in shallow-water communities changed significantly because of the development of new habitats associated with macrophyte growth. Mercury concentrations increased by a factor of 1.6 since the mid-nineteenth century as a result of atmospheric fallout. Recent increases in the chrysophyte Mallomonas in all cores suggested an acidification trend. We conclude that even remote boreal lakes are susceptible to the effects of climate change and human-induced pollution.

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