The Big Flood: North Sea storm surge

Author(s):  
Allan McRobie ◽  
Tom Spencer ◽  
Herman Gerritsen

In the 50 years since the catastrophic southern North Sea storm surge of 31 January–1 February 1953, there have been technological advances in the engineering of flood protection, increased understanding of physical processes in shallow seas and estuaries, and developments in the mathematical statistics of extreme events. This introductory paper reviews how the scientific understanding of surge events, their impacts and the human responses to them is evolving on many fronts, often across disciplinary boundaries. The question of how the long-term nature of the problem itself will be influenced by possible climate, land use and policy changes is addressed, along with their associated uncertainties.

Author(s):  
K Horsburgh ◽  
J Williams ◽  
J Flowerdew ◽  
K Mylne ◽  
S Wortley
Keyword(s):  

2012 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 58-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Weisse ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Hanz Dieter Niemeyer ◽  
Heiko Knaack
Keyword(s):  

Disasters ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alexander
Keyword(s):  

2015 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 120-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Spencer ◽  
Susan M. Brooks ◽  
Ben R. Evans ◽  
James A. Tempest ◽  
Iris Möller

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 1501-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Gaslikova ◽  
Iris Grabemann ◽  
Nikolaus Groll

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3582-3595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Sylvin Müller-Navarra ◽  
Jürgen Jensen ◽  
Frederik Schenk ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
...  

Abstract The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.


Using observed hourly heights of tide at thirty-one stations in the North Sea and two in the English Channel, the storm surge of 31 January and 1 February 1953 has been investigated in the light of the meteorological conditions prevailing. The major cause of the disturbance is shown to be the strong northerly winds in and to the north of the North Sea, modified at each station by local wind and barometric effects. An increase of 2 ft. in the mean level of the North Sea during the disturbance has been deduced, and the response of the sea as a whole to the disturbing winds has been examined. Geostrophic effects have been remarked in both the growth and decay of the disturbance. Estimates have been made of the air/sea frictional coefficient on two separate occasions during the period considered, assuming the tractive force of the wind to vary as the square of its velocity. These estimates are in agreement with accepted values. The partial transmission of this large surge through the Straits of Dover has been shown as an im portant factor, influencing the levels immediately to the north of the Straits. Prediction of the surge at Southend by a previously established formula has given only fair results, but the errors have been explained in terms of the facts previously presented and the approximations upon which the formula is based. Suggestions for future research into the improvement of surge prediction formulae have been made.


Eos ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (30) ◽  
pp. 269-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Spencer ◽  
Susan M. Brooks ◽  
Iris Möller ◽  
Ben R. Evans
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 273-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony James Kettle

Abstract. Offshore energy infrastructure, including the petroleum and wind energy sectors, are susceptible to damage and interruption by extreme meteorological events. In northwest Europe and especially the North Sea, these extreme meteorological events are mostly associated with severe storms in the autumn and winter seasons. In the North Sea, storm surges have an impact on the offshore energy sector mainly from the flooding of port facilities and from strong ocean currents causing extra structural loading and bottom scouring. Storm Britta on 31 October–1 November 2006 was an important North Sea storm with a high surge along the coast of the Netherlands and Germany and a significant number of high wave reports. The paper presents an analysis of the national tide gauge records of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark to spectrally isolate and reconstruct time series components corresponding to the storm surge, semi-diurnal tide, and short period contribution. The semi-diurnal tides and storm surge during Storm Britta are tracked counter-clockwise around the North Sea from Scotland to northern Denmark. The storm surge was remarkable for its pronounced peak in the coastal area between the Netherlands and Germany with no precedent in the ∼100 year measurement record. The short period component of the tide gauge records show large oscillations during the height of the storm that may correspond with reports of unusually high waves at nearby coastal locations.


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