Day-ahead energy production in small hydropower plants: uncertainty-aware forecasts through effective coupling of knowledge and data

Motivated by the challenges induced by the so-called Target Model and the associated changes to the current structure of the energy market, we revisit the problem of day-ahead prediction of power production from Small Hydropower Plants (SHPPs) without storage capacity. Using as an example a typical run-of-river SHPP in Western Greece, we test alternative forecasting schemes (from regression-based to machine learning) that take advantage of different levels of information. In this respect, we investigate whether it is preferable to use as predictor the known energy production of previous days, or to predict the day-ahead inflows and next estimate the resulting energy production via simulation. Our analyses indicate that the second approach becomes clearly more advantageous when the expert's knowledge about the hydrological regime and the technical characteristics of the SHPP is incorporated within the model training procedure. Beyond these, we also focus on the predictive uncertainty that characterize such forecasts, with overarching objective to move beyond the standard, yet risky, point forecasting methods, providing a single expected value of power production. Finally, we discuss the use of the proposed forecasting procedure under uncertainty in the real-world electricity market.

Storm Anatol over Europe in December 1999: impacts on societal and energy infrastructure

Storm Anatol impacted the North Sea and northern Europe on 3–4 December 1999. It brought hurricane force winds to Denmark and northern Germany, and high winds also in Sweden and countries around the Baltic Sea. For many meteorological stations in Denmark, the wind speeds were the highest on record and the storm was ranked as a century event. The storm impacts included extensive forest damage, fatalities, hundreds of injuries, power outages, transportation interruptions, as well as storm surge flooding on the west coast of Denmark. Strongly committed to wind energy, Denmark lost 13 onshore wind turbines destroyed during the storm. An important industry insurer noted that this was a remarkably low number, considering the storm intensity and the large number of turbines (>3500) installed in the country. In 1999, offshore wind energy was just getting started in Europe, and the storm provided an important test of environmental extreme conditions impacting offshore infrastructure. This contribution takes a closer look at the regional met-ocean conditions during the storm. A brief overview is made of the wind field and available wave measurements from the North Sea. An examination is made of water level measurements from around the North Sea to characterize the storm surge and identify possible meteo-tsunamis and infragravity waves. Offshore accidents are briefly discussed to assess if there had been unusual wave strikes on shipping or platforms. At the time of the storm in 1999, there was a growing awareness in the scientific community of possible changes in ambient sea state conditions and the increasing threat of rogue waves. The offshore wind energy community had become aware from the impact of rogue waves from damage at the research platform FINO1 in the southern North Sea during severe storms in 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2013. Storm Anatol may have been another rogue wave storm at an earlier stage of offshore wind energy development.

Recovery processes in coastal wind farms under sea-breeze conditions

With the rapid growth in offshore wind energy, it is important to understand the dynamics of offshore wind farms. Most of the offshore wind farms are currently installed in coastal regions where they are often affected by sea-breezes. In this work, we quantitatively study the recovery processes for coastal wind farms under sea-breeze conditions. We use a modified Borne's method to identify sea breeze days off the west coast of India in the Arabian Sea. For the identified sea breeze days, we simulate a hypothetical wind farm covering 50×50 km2 area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by realistic initial and boundary conditions. We use three wind farm layouts with the turbines spaced 0.5, 1, and 2 km apart. The results show an interesting power generation pattern with a peak at the upwind edge and another peak at the downwind edge due to sea breeze. Wind farms affect the circulation patterns, but the effects of these modifications are very weak compared to the sea breezes. Vertical recovery is the dominant factor with more than half of the momentum extracted by wind turbines being replenished by vertical turbulent mixing. However, horizontal recovery can also play a strong role for sparsely packed wind farms. Horizontal recovery is stronger at the edges where the wind speeds are higher whereas vertical recovery is stronger in the interior of the wind farms. This is one of the first studies to examine replenishment processes in offshore wind farms under sea breeze conditions. It can play an important role in advancing our understanding wind farm-atmospheric boundary layer interactions.

Metrology for radiation protection: a new European network in the foundation phase

More than 23 million workers worldwide are occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation and all people in the world are exposed to environmental radiation. The mean exposure, that is the mean annual dose of per person, is dominated by medical applications and exposure to natural sources. Due to recent developments in healthcare, e.g. the increasing application of ionising radiation in medical imaging with relative high doses like CT, and modern high dose applications (for example CT angiography), the exposure due to medical application has risen. Additionally, the changes in living conditions increase the exposure to natural radioactivity also: More living time is spent in buildings or in an urban environment, which causes higher exposure to Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) in building materials and higher exposure to radon. The level of radon activity concentration in buildings is far higher than in the environment (outdoor). This effect is often amplified by modern energy-efficient buildings which reduce the air exchange and thus increase the radon indoor activity concentration. In summary both medical application of ionizing radiation and natural sources are responsible for the increase of the mean annual exposure of the population. The accurate measurement of radiation dose is key to ensuring safety but there are two challenges to be faced: First, new standards and reference fields are needed due to the rapid developments in medical imaging, radiotherapy and industrial applications. Second, direct communication channels are needed to ensure that information on best practice in measurements reaches effectively and quickly the people concerned. It is therefore necessary to allow for an international exchange of information on identified problems and solutions. Consequently, a European Metrology Network (EMN) for radiation protection under the roof of EURAMET is in the foundation phase. This network EMN for Radiation Protection is being prepared by the project EMPIR 19NET03 supportBSS. The project aims to prepare this EMN by addressing this issue through the identification of stakeholder research needs and by implementing a long-term ongoing dialogue between stakeholders and the metrology community. The EMN will serve as a unique point of contact to address all metrological needs related to radiation protection and it will relate to all environmental processes where ionising radiation and radionuclides are involved. A Strategic Research Agenda and two roadmaps are in development, covering the metrology needs of both the Euratom Treaty and the EU Council Directive 2013/59/EURATOM pinning down the basic safety standards for protection against the dangers arising from exposure to ionizing radiation. Furthermore, long-term knowledge sharing, and capacity building will be supported and a proposal for a sustainable joint European metrology infrastructure is under way. This will significantly strengthen the radiation protection metrology and support radiation protection measures. The final goal of the network project is a harmonised, sustainable, coordinated and smartly specialised infrastructure to underpin the current and future needs expressed in the European regulations for radiation protection.

Evaluating Flow in Fractal-Fracture Networks: Effect of Variable Aperture

While fractal models are often employed for describing the geometry of fracture networks, a constant aperture is mostly assigned to all the fractures when such models are flow simulated. In nature however, almost all fracture networks exhibit variable aperture values and it is this fracture aperture that controls the conductivity of individual fractures as described by the well-known cubic-law. It would therefore be of practical interest to investigate flow patterns in a fractal-fracture network where the apertures scale in accordance to their position in the hierarchy of the fractal. A set of synthetic fractal-fracture networks and two well-connected natural fracture maps that belong to the same fractal system are used for this purpose. A set of dominant sub-networks are generated from a given fractal-fracture map by systematically removing the smaller fracture segments with narrow apertures. The connectivity values of the fractal-fracture networks and their respective dominant sub-networks are then computed. Although a large number of fractures with smaller aperture are eliminated, no significant decrease is seen in the connectivity of the dominant sub-networks. A streamline simulator based on Darcy's law is used for flow simulating the fracture networks, which are conceptualized as two-dimensional fracture continuum models. A single high porosity value is assigned to all the fractures. The permeability assigned to fractures within the continuum model is based on their aperture values and there is nearly no matrix porosity and permeability. The recovery profiles and time-of-flight plots for each network and its dominant sub-networks at different time steps are compared. The results from both the synthetic networks and the natural data show that there is no significant decrease in fluid recovery in the dominant sub-networks compared to their respective parent fractal-fracture networks. It may therefore be concluded that in the case of such hierarchical fractal-fracture systems with scaled aperture, the smaller fractures do not significantly contribute to connectivity or fluid flow. In terms of decision making, this result will aid geoscientists and engineers in identifying only those fractures that ultimately matter in evaluating the flow recovery, thus building models that are computationally less expensive while being geologically realistic.

Deconvolution well test analysis applied to a long-term data set of the Waiwera geothermal reservoir (New Zealand)

The geothermal reservoir at Waiwera has been subject to active exploitation for a long time. It is located below the village on the Northern Island of New Zealand and has been used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, had a negative impact on the reservoir. So far, the physical relation between abstraction rates and water level change of the hydrogeological system is only fairly understood. The aim of this work was to link the influence of rates to the measured data to derive reservoir properties. For this purpose, the daily abstraction history was investigated by means of a variable production rate well test analysis. For the analysis, a modified deconvolution algorithm was implemented. The algorithm derives the reservoir response function by solving a least square problem with the unique feature of imposing only implicit constraints on the solution space. To further investigate the theoretical performance of the algorithm a simulation with synthetic data was conducted for three possible reservoir scenarios. Results throughout all years indicate radial flow during middle-time behaviour and a leaky flow boundary during late-time behaviour. For middle-time behaviour, the findings agree very well with prior results of a pumping test. For the future, a more extensive investigation of different flow conditions under different parametrisations should be conducted.

Uranium migration through the Swiss Opalinus Clay varies on the metre scale in response to differences of the stability constant of the aqueous, ternary uranyl complex Ca₂UO₂(CO₃)₃

The simulation of uranium migration through the Swiss Opalinus Clay is used as an example to quantify the influence of varying values of a stability constant in the underlying thermodynamic database on the migration lengths for the repository scale. Values for the stability constant of the neutral, ternary uranyl complex Ca2UO2(CO3)3 differ in literature by up to one order of magnitude. Within the studied geochemical system, either the neutral or the anionic complex CaUO2(CO3)32- is the predominant one, depending on the chosen value for the neutral complex. This leads to a changed interaction with the diffuse double layers (DDL) enveloping the clay minerals and thus can potentially influence the diffusive transport of uranium. Hence, two identical scenarios only differing in the value for the stability constant of the Ca2UO2(CO3)3 complex were applied in order to quantify and compare the migration lengths of uranium on the host rock scale (50 m) after a simulation time of one million years. We ran multi-component diffusion simulations for the shaly and sandy facies in the Opalinus Clay. A difference in the stability constant of 1.33 log units changes the migration lengths by 5 to 7 m for the sandy and shaly facies, respectively. The deviation is caused by the anion exclusion effect. However, with a maximum diffusion distance of 22 m, the influence of the stability constant of the Ca2UO2(CO3)3 complex on uranium migration in the Opalinus Clay is negligible on the host rock scale.

Evaluation of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts over India for renewable energy applications

This study evaluates subseasonal to seasonal scale (S2S) forecasts of meteorological variables relevant for the renewable energy (RE) sector of India from six ocean-atmosphere coupled models: ECMWF SEAS5, DWD GCFS 2.0, Météo-France's System 6, NCEP CFSv2, UKMO GloSea5 GC2-LI, and CMCC SPS3. The variables include 10 m wind speed, incoming solar radiation, 2 m temperature, and 2 m relative humidity because they are critical for estimating the supply and demand of renewable energy. The study is conducted over seven homogenous regions of India for 1994–2016. The target months are April and May when the electricity demand is the highest and June–September when the renewable resources outstrip the demand. The evaluation is done by comparing the forecasts at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-months lead-times with the ERA5 reanalysis spatially averaged over each region. The fair continuous ranked probability skill score (FCRPSS) is used to quantitatively assess the forecast skill. Results show that incoming surface solar radiation predictions are the best, while 2 m relative humidity is the worst. Overall SEAS5 is the best performing model for all variables, for all target months in all regions at all lead times while GCFS 2.0 performs the worst. Predictability is higher over the southern regions of the country compared to the north and north-eastern parts. Overall, the quality of the raw S2S forecasts from numerical models over India are not good. These forecasts require calibration for further skill improvement before being deployed for applications in the RE sector.

Strength and Challenges of global model MPAS with regional mesh refinement for mid-latitude storm forecasting: a case study

With the rising share of renewable energy sources like wind energy in the energy mix, high-impact weather events like mid-latitude storms increasingly affect energy production, grid stability and safety and reliable forecasting becomes very relevant for e.g. transmission system operators to allow for actions to reduce imbalances. Traditionally, meteorological forecasts are provided by limited-area weather prediction models (LAMs), which can use high enough model resolution to represent the range of atmospheric scales of motions associated with such storm structures. While generally satisfactory, deterioration and insufficient deepening of large-scale storm structures are observed when they are introduced near the lateral boundaries of the LAM due to inadequate spatial and temporal interpolation. Global models with regional mesh refinement capabilities like the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) have the potential to provide an alternative, while avoiding sharp resolution jumps and lateral boundaries. In this study, MPAS' capabilities of simulating key evaluation metrics like storm intensity, storm location and storm duration are investigated based on a case study and assessed in comparison with buoy measurements, forecast products from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) LAM. Quasi-uniform and variable-resolution MPAS mesh configurations with different model physics settings are designed to analyze the impact of the mesh refinement and model physics on the model performance. MPAS shows good performance in predicting storm intensity based on the local minimum sea level pressure, while time of local minimum sea level pressure (storm duration) was generally estimated too late (too long) in comparison with the buoy measurements in part due to an early west-wards shift of the storm center in MPAS. The variable-resolution configurations showed a combination of an additional south-westwards shift and deviations in the sea level pressure field south-west of the storm center that introduced additional bias to the time of local minimum sea level pressure at some locations. The study highlights the need for a more detailed analysis of applied mesh refinements for particular applications and emphasizes the importance of methods like data assimilation techniques to prevent model drifts.

Preliminary safety analyses in the high-level radioactive waste site selection procedure in Germany

The Federal Company for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BGE) is responsible for the search for a site with the best possible safety for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Germany. The site selection procedure is regulated in a law that was adopted by the German Federal Parliament (Repository Site Selection Act – StandAG, 2017, last updated 2020) and aims to be a participatory, transparent, learning, and self-questioning process based on scientific expertise. The first step of the first phase of the site selection procedure was completed in September 2020 and resulted in the identification of sub-areas that give reason to expect favorable geological conditions for the long-term storage of nuclear waste in the subsurface. These sub-areas cover approximately 54 % of Germany and are located in three different host rocks: rock salt – halite, claystone, and crystalline rock. The challenge for the next step is to find suitable siting regions within the previously determined sub-areas that are then considered further in the next phase of the site selection procedure. In the following, the methodology of the so-called representative preliminary safety analyses is described, which constitute one of the tools to identify siting regions, and some first insight on how they are planned to be implemented in practice is given.