A minimal model for household effects in epidemics
Keyword(s):
Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R0 depends on the household size in a surprising way: linearly for relatively small households, and as a square root of size for larger households. We discuss the implications of the findings for the lockdown, test, tracing, and isolation policies.
2005 ◽
Vol 34
(7)
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pp. 943-958
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Keyword(s):
1992 ◽
Vol 03
(supp01)
◽
pp. 195-200
◽
Keyword(s):
1980 ◽
Vol 41
(C6)
◽
pp. C6-97-C6-100
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Keyword(s):