scholarly journals Large scale PVA modelling of insects in cultivated grasslands: the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes A. Leins ◽  
Martin Drechsler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Dispersal Success

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on severity of climate change in sub regions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m2) scale in 107 sub regions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many sub regions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions, but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.

scholarly journals Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Awoke D. Teshager ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Justin T. Schoof ◽  
Silvia Secchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Water Quantity ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Water Quantity And Quality

Abstract. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental, and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well calibrated SWAT model for the Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early-century, mid-century, and late-century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid and late 21st century.

scholarly journals Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs, and the role of biophysical climate effects

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Doelman ◽  
Elke Stehfest ◽  
Detlef van Vuuren ◽  
Andrzej Tabeau ◽  
Andries Hof ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mitigation Potential ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Effects Of Land Use ◽  
Mitigation Potentials ◽  
Change Mitigation

<p>Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here, we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework (Doelman et al., 2019). In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO<sub>2</sub>/yr at 200 US$/tCO<sub>2</sub> in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO<sub>2 </sub>cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.</p><p>The afforestation study published as Doelman et al. (2019) excluded biophysical climate effects of land use and land cover change on climate, even though this is shown to have a substantial effect especially locally (Alkama & Cescatti, 2016). As a follow-up to this study we implement the grid-specific temperature effects as derived by Duveiller et al. (2020) to the mitigation scenarios with large-scale afforestation to assess the effectiveness of afforestation for climate change mitigation as increased or reduced effectiveness may change cost-optimal climate policy. Notably in the boreal regions this can have a major effect, as transitions from agricultural land to forest are shown to have a substantial warming effect due to reduced albedo limiting the mitigation potential in these regions. Conversely, in the tropical areas the already high mitigation potential of afforestation could be even more efficient, as increased evapotranspiration from forests leads to additional cooling. However, it is uncertain whether the high efficiency of afforestation in tropical regions can be utilized as these are also the regions with high risks to implementation and permanence.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Alkama, R., & Cescatti, A. (2016). Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover. Science, 351(6273), 600-604.</p><p>Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Tabeau, A., Hof, A. F., Braakhekke, M. C., . . . Lucas, P. L. (2019). Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs. Global Change Biology</p><p>Duveiller, G., Caporaso, L., Abad-Viñas, R., Perugini, L., Grassi, G., Arneth, A., & Cescatti, A. (2020). Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers. Land Use Policy, 91, 104382. </p>

scholarly journals Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3325-3342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Awoke D. Teshager ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Justin T. Schoof ◽  
Silvia Secchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Water Quantity ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Water Quantity And Quality

Abstract. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

Climate Change and Land Use Change of Rural Households in The Red River Delta, Vietnam

2013 ◽  
pp. 79-94
Author(s):  
Ngoc Luu Bich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Red River ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Main Production ◽  
Farming Households

Climate change (CC) and its impacts on the socio-economy and the development of communities has become an issue causing very special concern. The rise in global temperatures, in sea levels, extreme weather phenomena, and salinization have occurred more and more and have directly influenced the livelihoods of rural households in the Red River Delta – one of the two regions projected to suffer strongly from climate change in Vietnam. For farming households in this region, the major and traditional livelihoods are based on main production materials as agricultural land, or aquacultural water surface Changes in the land use of rural households in the Red River Delta during recent times was influenced strongly by the Renovation policy in agriculture as well as the process of industrialization and modernization in the country. Climate change over the past 5 years (2005-2011) has started influencing household land use with the concrete manifestations being the reduction of the area cultivated and the changing of the purpose of land use.

scholarly journals Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Duong H. Nong ◽  
An T. Ngo ◽  
Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽  
Thuy T. Nguyen ◽  
Lan T. Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

scholarly journals Analysis of spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land after the Second World War in Czechia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vít Zelinka ◽  
Johana Zacharová ◽  
Jan Skaloš
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
German Population ◽  
World War ◽  
Landscape Type ◽  
Second World

AbstractThe term Sudetenland refers to large regions of the former Czechoslovakia that had been dominated by Germans. German population was expelled directly after the Second World War, between 1945 and 1947. Almost three million people left large areas in less than two years. This population change led to a break in the relationship between the people and the landscape. The aim of the study is to compare the trajectories of these changes in agricultural landscapes in lower and higher altitudes, both in depopulated areas and areas with preserved populations. This study included ten sites in the region of Northern Bohemia in Czechia (18,000 ha in total). Five of these sites represent depopulated areas, and the other five areas where populations remained preserved. Changes in the landscape were assessed through a bi-temporal analysis of land use change by using aerial photograph data from time hoirzons of 2018 and 1953. Land use changes from the 1950s to the present are corroborated in the studied depopulated and preserved areas mainly by the trajectory of agricultural land to forest. The results prove that both population displacement and landscape type are important factors that affect landscape changes, especially in agricultural landscapes.

Agricultural Land Management Options Following Large-Scale Environmental Contamination: Evaluation for Fukushima Affected Agricultural Land

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hildegarde Vandenhove
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Management Option ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Fukushima Daiichi ◽  
Agricultural Land Management

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the foodchain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident.

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