Foresight for stock market volatility – a study in the Indian perspective

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jitendra Kumar Dixit ◽  
Vivek Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constant Variance ◽  
Investment Decision Making

Purpose Volatility is a permanent behavior of the stock market around the globe. The presence of the volatility in the stock price makes it possible to earn abnormal profits by risk seeking investors and creates hesitancy among risk averse investors as high volatility means high return with high risk. Investors always consider market volatility before making any investment decisions. Random fluctuations are termed as volatility of stock market. Volatility in financial markets is reflected because of uncertainty in the price and return, unexpected events and non-constant variance that can be measured through the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity family models and that will give an insight for investment decision-making. Design/methodology/approach Daily data of the closing value of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) (Sensex) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) (Nifty) from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2017 is collected through the web-portal of BSE (www.bseindia.com) and NSE (www.nseindia.com) for the analysis purpose. Findings The outcome of the study suggested that P-GARCH model is most suitable to predict and forecast the stock market volatility for both the markets. Research limitations/implications Future research can be extended to other stock market segments and sectoral indices to explore and forecast the volatility to establish a trade-off between risk and return. Originality/value The results of previous studies available are not conducive to this research, and very limited scholarly work is available in the Indian context, so required to be re-explored to identify the appropriate model to predict market volatility.

scholarly journals Differences In Intrinsic Value With Stock Market Prices Using The Price Earning Ratio (Per) Approach As An Investment Decision Making Indicator (Case Study Of Manufacturing Companies In Indonesia Period 2016 - 2017)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-92
Author(s):  
Ardy Indra Lekso Wibowo Putra ◽  
Aditya Dwiansyah Putra ◽  
Murni Sari Dewi ◽  
Denny Oktavina Radianto
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Decision Making

An investor must be able to consider all kinds of steps that will be taken or that will be carried out, assessing stocks - shares that will provide optimal benefits in making an investment decision. By analyzing the intrinsic value of the price of a company's stock, investors can assess the fairness of the stock price. The method used to analize intrinsic value is fundamental analysis using the Price Earning Ratio (PER) approach. The samples to be taken in this research are manufacturing companies in Indonesia which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2016 - 2017 with certain criteria. The results of this research will show that the shares of companies listed are in overvalued, undervalued or correctly valued conditions. So investors can decide to buy, hold or sell their shares.

The significance and performance of property companies on the AIM stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Newell ◽  
Muhammad Jufri Bin Marzuki
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
And Performance

Purpose The Alternative Investment Market (AIM) is an important UK growth-focused stock market. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of property companies on the AIM stock market over 2005-2015. The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) recovery of property companies on AIM is highlighted, as well as their performance compared with property companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) main board. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of property companies on the AIM stock market over 2005-2015 are assessed and compared with a range of other asset classes. Sub-period analysis is used to assess the post-GFC recovery of the property companies on AIM. Findings Property companies on AIM delivered poor risk-adjusted returns over 2005-2015, with limited portfolio diversification benefits with the overall AIM stock market. However, since the GFC, property companies on AIM have delivered strong risk-adjusted returns, with improved portfolio diversification benefits with the overall AIM stock market. This post-GFC performance is shown to be more than a small cap effect, reflecting the property portfolios in these AIM property companies. Despite this strong post-GFC performance, the AIM property companies under-performed property companies on the LSE main board on a risk-adjusted basis. Practical implications AIM provides an important platform for property companies seeking start-up and growth opportunities in a less-regulated funding environment. This has been reinforced by strong risk-adjusted performance in a post-GFC context. However, the stronger risk-adjusted performance of LSE listed property companies and their superior scale, resources and higher quality property portfolios present challenges for increased investor support for the AIM property companies going forward. Originality/value This paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance and diversification benefits of property companies on the AIM stock market. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of property companies on the AIM stock market in a portfolio.

Individualism, synchronized stock price movements, and stock market volatility

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-403
Author(s):  
Feng Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
National Culture ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individualistic Culture ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Stock Price Movements

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of national culture on herding behavior across international financial markets.Design/methodology/approachThe relation between national culture and investor behavior, and how it impacts overall market volatility is studied by examining synchronized stock price movements and stock market volatility in 47 countries around the world over the period of January 2003–May 2012.FindingsThe author finds that nations with lower values of individualistic culture are more likely to have a higher number of synchronized stock price movements. Further, the correlation between stock price movements apparently increases stock market volatility. Nations with high individualistic culture have a lower number of synchronized stock price movements and, thus, have lower levels of stock market volatility. The positive relationship between synchronized stock price movements and stock market volatility is stronger for emerging markets during the financial crisis from June 2007 to December 2008.Originality/valueThe empirical results in this paper indicate that a portion of the difference in market level volatility is attributed to the investor bias of different cultures. Investor behavior bias creates excess volatility that drives stock prices away from fundamentals. This impact is strong in nations with lower individualistic culture. The result from this research could also have a wide implication in the investment industry.

scholarly journals Differences In Intrinsic Value With Stock Market Prices Using The Price Earning Ratio (Per) Approach As An Investment Decision Making Indicator (Case Study Of Manufacturing Companies In Indonesia Period 2016 - 2017)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-92
Author(s):  
Ardy Indra Lekso Wibowo ◽  
Aditya Dwiansyah Putra ◽  
Murni Sari Dewi ◽  
Denny Oktaviana Radianto
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Decision Making

An investor must be able to consider all kinds of steps that will be taken or that will be carried out, assessing stocks - shares that will provide optimal benefits in making an investment decision. By analyzing the intrinsic value of the price of a company's stock, investors can assess the fairness of the stock price. The method used to analize intrinsic value is fundamental analysis using the Price Earning Ratio (PER) approach. The samples to be taken in this research are manufacturing companies in Indonesia which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2016 - 2017 with certain criteria. The results of this research will show that the shares of companies listed are in overvalued, undervalued or correctly valued conditions. So investors can decide to buy, hold or sell their shares.

scholarly journals Information-Theoretic Measures and Modeling Stock Market Volatility: A Comparative Approach

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sheraz ◽  
Imran Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Information Theoretic Measures ◽  
Garch Modeling

The volatility analysis of stock returns data is paramount in financial studies. We investigate the dynamics of volatility and randomness of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX-100) and obtain insights into the behavior of investors during and before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19 pandemic). The paper aims to present the volatility estimations and quantification of the randomness of PSX-100. The methodology includes two approaches: (i) the implementation of EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, and TGARCH models to estimate the volatilities; and (ii) analysis of randomness in volatilities series, return series, and PSX-100 closing prices for pre-pandemic and pandemic period by using Shannon’s, Tsallis, approximate and sample entropies. Volatility modeling suggests the existence of the leverage effect in both the underlying periods of study. The results obtained using GARCH modeling reveal that the stock market volatility has increased during the pandemic period. However, information-theoretic results based on Shannon and Tsallis entropies do not suggest notable variation in the estimated volatilities series and closing prices. We have examined regularity and randomness based on the approximate entropy and sample entropy. We have noticed both entropies are extremely sensitive to choices of the parameters.

Investor sentiment antecedents

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Specific Factors

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.

scholarly journals Margin requirements and Stock Market Volatility in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
A. F. M. Mainul Ahsan ◽  
Mohammad Osman Gani ◽  
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Margin Requirements ◽  
Margin Requirement ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
The Impact

Officially margin requirements in bourses in Bangladesh were initiated on April 28, 1999, to limit the amount of credit available for the purpose of buying stocks. The goal of this paper is to measure the impact of changing margin requirement on stock returns' volatility in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). The impact of margin requirement on stock price volatility has been extensively studied with mixed and ambiguous results. Using daily stock returns, we found mixed evidence that SEC's margin requirements have significant impact on market volatility in DSE.

scholarly journals Financial contagion: The impact of the volatility of global stock exchanges on the Lima-Peru Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-27
Author(s):  
Pedro Pablo Chambi Condori
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Impact

What happens in the international financial markets in terms of volatility, have an impact on the results of the local stock market financial markets, as a result of the spread and transmission of larger stock market volatility to smaller markets such as the Peruvian, assertion that goes in accordance with the results obtained in the study in reference. The statistical evaluation of econometric models, suggest that the model obtained can be used for forecasting volatility expected in the very short term, very important estimates for agents involved, because these models can contribute to properly align the attitude to be adopted in certain circumstances of high volatility, for example in the input, output, refuge or permanence in the markets and also in the selection of best steps and in the structuring of the portfolio of investment with equity and additionally you can view through the correlation on which markets is can or not act and consequently the best results of profitability in the equity markets. This work comprises four well-defined sections; a brief history of the financial volatility of the last 15 years, a tight summary of the background and a dense summary of the methodology used in the process of the study, exposure of the results obtained and the declaration of the main conclusions which led us mention research, which allows writing, evidence of transmission and spread of the larger stock markets toward the Peruvian stock market volatility, as in the case of the American market to the market Peruvian stock market with the coefficient of dynamic correlation of 0.32, followed by the Spanish market and the market of China. Additionally, the coefficient of interrelation found by means of the model dcc mgarch is a very important indicator in the structure of portfolios of investment with instruments that they quote on the financial global markets.

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