The relative informational efficiency of stocks, options and credit default swaps during the financial crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 510-532
Author(s):  
Maria Chiara Amadori ◽  
Lamia Bekkour ◽  
Thorsten Lehnert
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Options ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
The Other ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate informational efficiency of stock, options and credit default swap (CDS) markets. Previous research suggests that informed traders prefer equity option and CDS markets over stock markets to exploit their informational advantage. As a result, equity and credit derivative markets contribute more to price discovery compared to stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the authors investigate the dynamics behind informed investors’ trading decisions in European stock, options and CDS markets. This allows to identify the predictive explanatory power of the unique information contained in each market with respect to future stock, CDS and option market movements. Findings – A lead-lag relation is found between the CDS market and the other markets, in which changes in CDS spreads are able to consistently forecast changes in stock prices and equity options’ implied volatilities, indicating how the fast-growing CDS market seems to play a special role in the price discovery process. Moreover, in contrast to results of US studies, the stock market is found to forecast changes in the other two markets, suggesting that investors also prefer stock market involvement to exploit their information advantages before moving to CDS and option markets. Interestingly, these patterns have only emerged during the recent financial crisis, while before the crisis, the option market was found to be of major importance in the price discovery process. Originality/value – The authors are the first to study the lead-lag relationship among European stock, option and CDS markets for a large sample period covering the financial crisis.

Regulatory overkill? Short-sales ban in Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-699
Author(s):  
Jaemin Kim ◽  
Joon-Seok Kim ◽  
Sean Sehyun Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Short Sales ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stabilizing Effect ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Purpose The authors investigate the 2008-2009 short-sales ban in Korea, one of the most comprehensive and restrictive short-selling bans worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to examine: whether the ban stopped a destabilizing effect, if there was any, of short-selling activities; whether the ban improved or deteriorated the informational efficiency or the price discovery process of the stock market; and whether the ban had any impact on market liquidity. Design/methodology/approach Multiple regression; vector autoregression analysis; and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity analysis. Findings The authors find no evidence that short-sales have a market-destabilizing effect and thus, restricting short-selling has a market-stabilizing effect. On the contrary, the short-selling ban is associated with an increase in return volatility and a deterioration of the price discovery process, particularly for the stocks without derivatives traded on them. The authors also find evidence of a liquidity decrease for short-sale intensive stocks. However, the evidence is inconclusive as to whether the market efficiency and liquidity changes are solely the result of the short-sales ban or the compound effects of both the ban and the concurrent progress of the financial crisis. Originality/value The literature does not provide a conclusive view on the effects of short-sales or restrictions thereof on the stock market. Also, the existing research on recent worldwide shorting bans often lack empirical scope (e.g. 32 stocks for UK; three weeks for USA). In contrast, the short-sales ban in the Korean stock market, one of the most comprehensive and restrictive short-selling bans worldwide, lasted for eight months for all the listed stocks and is still in effect for financial stocks. The authors find no evidence that short-sales have a market-destabilizing effect and thus, restricting short-selling has a market-stabilizing effect.

The more connected, the better? Impact of connectedness on volatility and price discovery in the Korean financial sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
DeokJong Jeong ◽  
Sunyoung Park
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Market Microstructure ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Asian Crisis ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effect of the increasing connectedness among financial institutions in the Korean financial market, as it affects the market microstructure in the stock market. Thus this work, first, analyzes the trend and characteristics of connectedness in the Korean financial sector. This work then demonstrates the impacts of connectedness on volatility and price discovery in the stock market. Design/methodology/approach The entire Korean financial sector is analyzed from January 1990 to July 2015, including the periods of the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. This paper quantifies the connectedness between financial institutions using network methodology. Densely connectedness specifically refers to the cases in which a node experiences strong-lagged return spillover from and/or to itself. Findings Connectedness is established as an important determinant of stock price discovery. This paper illustrates that connectedness increases on significant economic events such as the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that the more densely connected a particular financial institution, the more volatile the stock price and the less accurate the stock price quality. Research limitations/implications Understanding the financial system from a network perspective has been on the rise after the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. This work helps regulators and policy makers understand the full implications of introducing new policies that can more closely connect financial institutions. Originality/value This paper precisely captures financial institutions’ connectedness by including all types of financial institutions at the micro level. Additionally, this paper links connectedness to market microstructure in the stock market.

Does CDS Premium Most Predict Sovereign Default Risk?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-530
Author(s):  
Ki Beom Binh ◽  
Seokjin Woo ◽  
Sang Min Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Dollar Spot ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery process between Korean sovereign CDS premium, spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar currency swap rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. With the global financial and fiscal crisis, especially in the U.S. and Euro-zone, the interests in sovereign default risk have risen. Interests in CDS, an OTC credit derivative contract based on debt issuer’s default risk, also have increased. A large number of presses have reported that CDS premium would be the best international market indicator for the default risk taken or transferred. However, internationally the CDS market liquidity has not been sufficient enough to validate its properties. Hence, based on empirics, this paper discusses whether Korean sovereign CDS premium can be considered as an appropriate indicator of sovereign credit risk in the Korean economy. Other largely accepted indices which contain the similar information about Korean economic fundamental and Korean external sovereign credit risk are also analyzed and compared: the spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar Currency Swap Rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. Our findings include: (a) in the price discovery process, Won-Dollar spot rate contributes to the price discovery especially most ‘during the financial crisis period’ and the ‘entire period’ (b) Within the period ‘after the financial crisis’, CDS premium and the other indices have mutual influences on the price discovery process higher than the period ‘before the financial crisis’ (c) while Won-Dollar forward rate shows the similar result with Won-Dollar spot rate, NDF rate and CDS premium make the largest mutual influence on price discovery in the period ‘before the financial crisis.’

scholarly journals THE INTERACTIONS AND TRADE-OFFS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (CDS) AND BOND SPREADS IN A DYNAMIC CONTEXT

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-488
Author(s):  
Ioannis A. Tampakoudis ◽  
Andrius Tamošiūnas ◽  
Demetres N. Subeniotis ◽  
Ioannis G. Kroustalis
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments of the sovereign indebtedness in the euro area. We employ an integrated price discovery methodology on a rolling sample, with the intention to shed light on whether the CDS spreads can trigger rises in bond spreads, and the relative efficiency of credit risk pricing in the CDS and bond markets. In addition, we attempt to depict the evolution of the price discovery process regarding the direction of influence from one market to the other. The rolling window analysis verifies that the price discovery process evolves over time, presenting frequent alternations concerning the leading market. We find that during periods of economic turbulence the CDS market leads the bond market in price discovery, incorporating the new information about sovereign credit risk faster and more efficiently than the bond market does. This regularity should be seriously considered by private and public participants as they make investment and funding decisions. Therefore, the motivation of our paper is to identify the dominant market in terms of price discovery during a period of economic turmoil and, thus, to provide insights for decision making to investment bodies and central governments.

Price formation of FICC research following MiFID II unbundling rules

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fidelio Tata
Keyword(s):  
Iterative Process ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
High Price ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Production ◽  
Research Publications ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Purpose Traditionally, full-service broker/dealers catering to institutional investors have bundled trade execution with investment research. Since 2018, new market regulation has forced broker/dealers to unbundle and to sell research separately. The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the expected pricing of research. Design/methodology/approach A stylized model is presented in this study in which a monopolist fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) research provider faces a linear demand function and picks an appropriate price schedule. Findings It is shown that it is important to initiate the price discovery process using a low price and that some broker/dealers will not be able to identify a regulatory compliant price/quantity solution because their research-production fixed cost is very high compared to the research demand function they face. Practical implications There are three main findings from our model: pricing research at cost is not always possible; if there is a unique solution, an iterative approach only works when starting off with a low-enough initial price; and if there are two solutions, only the low-cost/high-volume solution can be discovered in an iterative process. Originality/value The results presented are important to broker/dealers about to discover the market demand for their FICC research publications on the back of the implementation of MiFID II. Having distributed FICC research for free in the past, they have no knowledge about the demand function (other than what is demanded at a price of zero). Because research publications are highly differentiated products, observing the pricing of competitors is insufficient. Iteratively gaining knowledge about the demand function using price adjustments and customer questionnaires becomes the most likely mean for discovering the demand function. It is important to initiate the price discovery process with a low price. Some broker/dealers will not be able to identify a regulatory compliant price/quantity solution because their research-production fixed cost is too high compared to the research demand function they face. Finally, it is shown that these broker/dealers with two possible equilibriums face difficulty in identifying the high-price/low-volume research equilibrium because of the non-converging nature of the iterative process.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Progression of the Redenomination and Sovereign Risk in the Price Discovery Process of Italian Banks’ CDSs

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Francesca Cinefra ◽  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè ◽  
Alessio Gioia
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Price Discovery Process

The recent global financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis of the Eurozone peripheral countries have generated historic levels of volatility and instability in the financial markets. In particular, during the sovereign debt crisis market operators have begun to focus on the so-called “redenomination risk”, that is the hypothesis of exit from the EMU (Euro Monetary Union) by one or more countries and the consequent redenomination of their debt in the past national currency. This type of risk constitutes a form of additional credit risk premium due to expected systemic failure of the Eurozone. The effects of the economic-financial crisis, the weak economic growth and the political instability that have characterized especially the Italian system in recent years provide the ideal starting point to analyze the evolution of the redenomination risk in the pricing process of the Italian banks’ CDSs (Credit Default Swaps). The contribution of this work is to evaluate the dynamic evolution of sovereign and redenomination risk in the price discovery process of the Italian banks’ CDS spreads (or premia) by using rolling window regressions. Results show that redenomination risk explains a great part of the variance in the CDS spreads during periods of financial distress. The sovereign risk component explains a large part of the variance for almost the entire considered period. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spreads, Sovereign risk, Redenomination risk, Rolling window regressions, ISDA basis.

Does the Indian Stock Market encourage Socially Responsible Companies?

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. V. Bhanu Murthy ◽  
Varun Bhandari ◽  
And Vishal Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Price Discovery Process

A paradigm shift has taken place in the conceptual framework of Corporate Responsibility which has led to the emergence of a holistic approach towards Governance, Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Accountability. We expect that social responsibility has a distinct and positive effect on the security prices in the stock market. This paper aims at studying the broad trends in the market in terms of ESG, as proxy of socially responsible companies, and NIFTY, as the proxy of general companies, to identify the breaks, if any, and to examine the price discovery process in both the indices, in terms of growth rate. We have identified three periods i.e. pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period. We conclude that the growth rate and return is more in ESG index than NIFTY index. Hence, social responsible companies are performing better than general companies both in terms of price discovery and returns, for the whole period. After the crisis the investors had become sensitised to social responsibility and had begun to absorb and internalise the behaviour of socially responsible companies in the price discovery process.

scholarly journals Return and volatility spillover across equity markets between China and Southeast Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (47) ◽  
pp. 66-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngo Thai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
The Other ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Stock Market ◽  
Portfolio Managers

Purpose This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia). Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model to capture return linkage and volatility transmission spanning the period including the pre- and post-2008 Global Financial Crisis. Findings The main empirical result is that the volatility of the Chinese market has had a significant impact on the other markets in the data sample. For the stock return, linkage between China and other markets seems to be remarkable during and after the Global Financial Crisis. Notably, the findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into the crisis. Practical implications The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers and institutional investors in the evaluation of investment and asset allocation decisions. The market participants should pay more attention to assess the worth of across linkages among the markets and their volatility transmissions. Additionally, international portfolio managers and hedgers may be better able to understand how the volatility linkage between stock markets interrelated overtime; this situation might provide them benefit in forecasting the behavior of this market by capturing the other market information. Originality/value This paper would complement the emerging body of existing literature by examining how China stock market impacts on their neighboring countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Furthermore, this is the first investigation capturing return linkage and volatility spill over between China market and the four Southeast Asian markets by using bivariate VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The authors believe that the results of this research’s empirical analysis would amplify the systematic understanding of spillover activities between China stock market and other stock markets.

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