Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the US Credit Default Swap Market

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the US economy at different levels. Since credit default swaps can be viewed as a default probability indicator, the article shows the credit default swap market perspective on how the US economy was hit by the pandemic. Forecasting models are built to estimate the predictability of the CDS market sectors during the pandemic, i.e., manufacturing, energy, banks, consumer goods, and services and financial sector excluding banks. Econometric tests are applied to check the uniqueness of credit default swap market sectors after the declaration of the pandemic. The results indicate that the financial sector excluding banks performed uniquely during the pandemic; i.e., the predictability of this sector dropped significantly, and the Chow breakpoint test and Wald coefficient test can identify the shift in the data after declaration of the pandemic.

The Perception of Risk Disclosure Characteristics on the Credit Default Swap Market - An Automated Analysis

This paper evaluates the associations between credit default swap (CDS) spreads and risk disclosure characteristics, especially the expected qualitative and the expected quantitative impacts of risks on companies' future performance and information on risk management. We find that CDS investors can benefit from information on expected risk impacts and from information on risk management, which is important for the current discussion of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on risk disclosure regulation. However, for companies, the disclosure of such information can be either beneficial or costly, depending on the initial risk perception of CDS investors prior to the publication of risk disclosures and on the disclosed risk factors. Furthermore, we expand the literature by automatically measuring the mentioned risk disclosure characteristics using dictionary-based approaches.

Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk

An increase in a country’s sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance.