An assessment of impact of globalization on Indian IT and ITES exports

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 751-768
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hassan Malik ◽  
Nirmala Velan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Output ◽  
It Industry ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Growth Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the growth trends in IT industry after the period of globalization in 1990s and to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT software and service exports, globalization and economic growth in India.Design/methodology/approachAnnual time series data on IT exports, net national product and openness index have been collected from National Association of Software and Service Companies, the Reserve Bank of India database on Indian economy and the World Bank for the present study. The methodology adopted for studying the first objective are growth trend models, descriptive statistics and graphs prepared on the basis of data from the IT sector. Growth trends in key performance variables, such as total output, export, domestic output and employment have been analyzed. In the case of second objective, vector auto regression model has been used based on variance decomposition and impulse response function to capture the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT exports, globalization and economic growth in India.FindingsResults of the growth trend model show the relative growth performance of software services receipts shows its strong advancement compared to the other sub-components of current account of balance of payments of India. It is found that economic growth responds positively to the shocks in IT exports and openness of economy. Further, IT software and service exports and openness index contribute to economic growth more in the long-run rather than in the short run.Research limitations/implicationsThe IT software and service exports is dynamic field of economic activity amid heavy dependence on both domestic and external economic and political environment; hence, the rate of change is so rapid, and the relevance of factors may change over time.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that economic growth can be enhanced by implementing policies that not only improve the efficiency of the sector but also focus on optimization of the potential of the Indian IT industry.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on originality in delineating the growth trends and analysis of capturing the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT exports, globalization and economic growth in India.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

Research publications and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 662-675
Author(s):  
Nicholas M Odhiambo ◽  
Lydia Ntenga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Publications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between research publications and economic growth – using time-series data from South Africa. The paper attempts to answer two critical questions: is there a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa? Do research publications from South African researchers Granger-cause economic growth? Design/methodology/approach – Unlike some of the previous studies, the current paper uses a trivariate ECM-based Granger-causality model to examine this linkage. Specifically, the study incorporates education as an intermittent variable between research and economic growth. In addition, the paper uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, which has numerous advantages, especially when the sample size is small. Findings – The results of this study show that there is a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa. The results also show that there is a distinct causal flow from research publications to economic growth in South Africa. This applies both in the short-run and in the long-run. Other results also show that: there is a short-run bidirectional causality between research publications and education; and there is a short-run bi-directional causality between education and economic growth, but a long-run unidirectional causal flow from education to economic growth. Practical implications – The findings of this paper underscore the crucial role that research plays in economic growth and development. Overall, the findings of this study show that research in South Africa is pro-growth. This implies that the recent significant increase in government expenditure on research and innovation, which is aimed at increasing the country’s scientific research outputs, is likely to pay off. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between research outputs and economic growth in South Africa – using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach within a trivariate setting.

scholarly journals Stock market development and economic growth in Tanzania: an ARDL and bound testing approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Saganga Mussa Kapaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic growth and vice versa. Design/methodology/approach The study used the autoregressive distribute lag model (ARDL) with bound testing procedures, the sample covered quarterly time-series data from 2001q1 to 2019q2 in Tanzania. Findings The results suggest that stock market development have both negative and positive causality for both short-run dynamics and long-run relationship with economic growth. Economic growth is found to only cause and relate negatively to liquidity both in the short-run and in the long-run. The results show predominantly a unidirectional causality flow from stock market development to economic growth and finds partial causality flow from economic growth to stock market development, as represented by stock market turnover which proxied liquidity. Originality/value The use of quarterly data to reflect more realistically the dynamics of the variables because yearly data may sometimes cover-up specific dynamics that may be useful for prediction and policy planning. The study uses indices to capture general aspects within the stock market against economic growth as an intuitive way to aggregate the stock market development effects.

The short- and long-run drivers of lending behaviour by South African banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 639-651
Author(s):  
Johan Coetzee ◽  
Lwazi Genukile
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South African ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe role of banks to efficiently allocate loans to borrowers is fundamental to a thriving economy. In South Africa this is particularly important, given a challenging socio-economic environment with high levels of unemployment and poor levels of economic growth. This paper investigates the short- and long-run determinants of bank lending behaviour for South African banks.Design/methodology/approachThe study design uses time-series data in an autoregressive distributed-lagged model for the period 1994–2016.FindingsThe results indicate that factors such as the volume of deposits and the size of a bank are central to explaining bank lending behaviour in the short run, whereas GDP was found to be the only factor explaining lending behaviour in the long run.Originality/valueThe results suggest that the regulatory role of the South African Reserve Bank to ensure financial stability instils trust and certainty in the banking industry and is reflected in the short-run implications to ensure that large banks are stable and depositors avoid a run on a bank's deposits. This is particularly relevant if the long-run trajectory of the economy is one of sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, although the reserve bank is constantly under threat of not having a pro-growth policy agenda, the results support its role to promote confidence and trust through its financial stability policy. Should confidence in the financisal system not be present, it is argued that systemic risk will be exacerbated through the potential failure of large banks and depositors withdrawing their funds through a run on the bank in the short run. Where financial stability is present, market participants will be more inclined to make deposits into the large South African banks, given the trust and certainty within the system.

Nonlinear effect of FDI, economic growth, and industrialization on environmental quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Ayesha Ameer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nonlinear Effect ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Partial Sum ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the long-run as well as short-run nonlinear effect of foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (EG) and industrialization on environmental degradation (carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions) in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The study applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag methodology to examine the long-run and short-run relationship among the variables. FDI, EG and industrialization are decomposed into positive and negative variations to examine the nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions. Granger causality test is used to examine the direction of causality among the variables. The study uses annual time-series data of Pakistan from 1975 to 2016. Findings An increase in FDI has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions in the long run, while a decrease in FDI has a negative and insignificant effect on CO2 emissions. An increase in EG has a positive and significant effect, while a decrease in EG has a negative and insignificant effect on CO2 emissions in the long run. An increase in industrialization has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions, while a decrease in industrialization has a negative and insignificant effect on CO2 emissions. Unidirectional causality flows from CO2 emissions to a positive partial sum of FDI, EG, industrialization and a negative partial sum of EG in the short run. Practical implications The government has to establish the environmental regulation for industrial sectors. Research and development centers are required at government and private levels to control pollution through new technologies. Regulations and restrictions are required on the foreign investor to adopt friendly environmental policies. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the nonlinear effects of FDI, industrialization and EG on environmental pollution in Pakistan. The main significance of this investigation is to provide the essential evidence, information and better understanding to key stakeholders of the environment.

scholarly journals Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

Natural resources and economic growth: evidence from Brunei Darussalam

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Umar Burki ◽  
Arshad Hayat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brunei Darussalam ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis paper explores the relationship between natural resources and economic growth of Brunei Darussalam, an underresearched area in the available literature.Design/methodology/approachAnnual data are sourced from reliable sources for the period 1989–2020. Appropriate cointegration techniques for time series data are employed to estimate the specified models and extract results.FindingsThe results provide evidence about the positive and significant role that natural resources have played in the economic growth of Brunei Darussalam. Similarly, trade openness and domestic investment have also positively and significantly impacted the long-run economic growth. On the other hand, the impacts of government expenditure and the growth of human capital on economic growth are although positive but insignificant statistically in the long run. The short-run results show that natural resources, government expenditures and domestic investment have influenced economic growth both positively and significantly. Moreover, the positive and significant impact of trade openness on economic growth, which was observed in the long run, turned negative and insignificant in the short run. Finally, the insignificant positive relationship between the growth of human capital and economic growth observed in the long run remained the same in the short run.Originality/valueThis paper studies the resource curse hypothesis for Brunei Darussalam for the first time, and therefore, the findings will be of significant interest for policymakers and researchers.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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