When The Last Tree Dies, The Last Man Dies: Do Forests Hold The Key To Survival In Ghana? A Critical Analysis Using The Bootstrapped Rolling Window Granger Causality Test Approach

This paper investigates the role of forests in the life expectancy of people in Ghana. We test whether the extinction of forests will inevitably lead to extinction of people in Ghana. We first examined the causal relationship between life expectancy and deforestation using the full sample bootstrap Granger causality test approach and find causality to run from deforestation to life expectancy with no feedback from life expectancy to deforestation. Testing for parameter stability, we found the short run and long run parameters of the estimated Vector Auto Regressive models to be unstable. A time-varying approach, the rolling window bootstrapped Granger causality test was then employed to investigate the causal relationship between life expectancy and deforestation. The results showed that deforestation has a negative effect on life expectancy, confirming the widely accepted saying that the health of forests is inextricably linked to the health of mankind. The empirical results further show that, on trend higher life expectancy increases the rate of deforestation in Ghana. Highlighting the importance of the role of forests in influencing life expectancy in Ghana, we recommend awareness creation on the role of forests in supporting human life and also extensive afforestation programs to reduce the rate of deforestation in Ghana. This, we believe, will reduce the spread of vector borne diseases such as malaria and reduce the surge in respiratory diseases which shorten the life span of Ghanaians.JEL codesQ23, Q50, Q53, Q58, Q58

Exchange rate and Export of Bangladesh: Does Marshall-Lerner condition holds?

Export is expected to have a favorable impact on GDP growth, and the exchange rate is expected to have a major impact on export and thus export earnings. The relationship between exchange rate and export is a hotly debated topic in macroeconomics, and the goal of this research is to see if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds incase of Bangladesh that is if devaluation of domestic currency increase export earnings. Explanatory variables of the model in the study are the exchange rate, foreign income (WGDP), and domestic income (DGDP). Cointegration approaches; Error Correction model, Granger Causality test are used in this study to estimate the long and short-run impacts. With time series data from 1973Q3 to 2018Q2, we used the Error Correction Model and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of VECM support short-run exchange rate and export adjustments. The bidirectional causality between exchange rate and export is established using the Granger causality test.

Dynamic Linkages among Saudi Market Sectors Indices

This study aims to test the causal relationship between Saudi stock market index (TASI) and sectoral indices throughout the period from 2016–2020. The study data were extracted through the main index of the Saudi market and the indices of the available data of 19 sectors out of 21 sectors. The unit root test was used along with the Granger causality test, in addition to multiple regression tests in order to analyze the study hypotheses. The study shows that all index series were stationary at the zero level I (0), and the results also show that there were bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between TASI and sectoral indices, and that TASI effectively mirrors all the changes that occur in the Saudi stock market.

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro-wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.

Remittances and Private Investment: Evidence in Asia and The Pacific Developing Countries

Although remittances have increased rapidly in recent decades, however. most previous studies have been done using micro-level data but there is no article employed data at the macro-level in Asia-Pacific. Our paper tries to fill the empirecal gap related to the impact of remittances on private investment in recipient countries with the panel data of 30 Asia and the Pacific developing countries in the period of 1985 – 2014. The results confirmed that remittances lead to an increase in private investment in these countries but the quantitative analysis showed that this promoting impact is only a quite weak. Further more, our Granger causality test explored that there is only one-way causality from remittance to private investment existing in research period.

THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN TURKEY

After Industrial Revolution, severe increases were experienced in fossil fuel consumption due to increased energy needs. The endless struggle of humankind for interest and his/her ignorance of environmental devastation led greenhouse gas to accumulate in the atmosphere, global warming to be experienced and, depending on this, climatic change to form. This process experienced has caused many international and national studies to be conducted in the area of climatic change related to the different disciplines, and the issue has taken place in the top orders among the leading subjects in academic platforms. This study discussed the effect of climatic change in Turkey on the agricultural sector. The sectors dealt with the study the agricultural sector, and the effects of climatic changes were aimed to be introduced with an econometric model. In agricultural sector, the effects of climatic changes from the perspective of the product productivity were analyzed by means of the agricultural sector, the effects of climatic changes from the perspective of product productivity were analyzed through Granger Causality Test. In the study, the period of 1970 -2017 was based on. The study deals with the issue on a sectorial basis; additionally, its effect is evaluated on the basis of product productivity from the original aspect of the study. Setting out from the results obtained in the study, climatic policies directed to the agricultural sector for Turkey were formed. The effects of the process on the sector were explicitly introduced. Developing climatic policies directed to this sector was targeted to contribute to the literature. Keywords: Climate change, agricultural products, granger causality test, variance decomposition.

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Economic Growth in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Malaysia. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and a total of 30 observations were taken for each variable. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, unit root test, several diagnostic tests and Granger causality test were used in this research to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth. Eviews 11 was used to analyze the time series data throughout all the tests. The result showed that the inflows of FDI has a significant negative relationship with economic growth and there is no causal relationship between FDI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Keywords: Economic growth, FDI inflows, Granger Causality Test, Ordinary Least Square regression, Unit Root Test

Cointegration and causality analysis between foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth in the republic of Croatia

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia for the period 2000-2020 and determine the implications of research results on corporate management. The management of the investment enterprise is usually interested in high returns, whereas the management of the recipient enterprise is interested in higher productivity, spillovers, and larger market share on domestic and international markets. Several methodological approaches, including unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality test, were used to assess the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, on the one side, and the share of FDI and total exports of goods and services in real GDP, on the other side. The results of cointegration tests indicated there is no long-term relationship between the real GDP growth rate, the share of FDI, and the share of exports of goods and services in real GDP. Based on the Granger causality test, it cannot be concluded that there is no causal relationship between the analysed variables. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the conducted research for corporate management. The results indicate that managers are not discouraged by the fact that FDI is not correlated to economic growth, as investment decisions are determined by numerous factors and not primarily by the growth rate of a recipient country.

How and When Factors of Agricultural Contribution Influence Urbanization: A Historical Analysis of Tibet

Agriculture Powers Urbanization. How and when agriculture influences urbanization in underdeveloped regions remain poorly understood from an agricultural contribution perspective, specifically the food contribution (FDC), raw materials contribution (MLC), labor contribution (LRC), and market contribution (MTC). This study investigated this issue in the context of Tibet. A Granger causality test (GCT), the impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition (VD) were used. The GCT results demonstrated that agricultural contribution factors (ACFs), Granger-cause urbanization, and the IRF and VD results demonstrated that the influences of ACFs on urbanization were various and asynchronous. Both MTC and LRC quickly and positively respond to urbanization; however, LRC currently influences urbanization, whereas MTC influences urbanization currently and in the future. Both MLC and FDC negatively and slowly respond to urbanization; however, MLC currently influences urbanization, whereas FDC will influence urbanization in the future. This study’s findings depict changing trajectories of the role of ACFs in urbanization, elucidating urban–rural transformation.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between the Global Macroeconomy and Shipping and Shipbuilding Industries

Using time-series data from January 2006 to February 2021, this study analyzed the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the shipping and shipbuilding industries. The Granger causality test, recursive structural vector autoregressive models, impulse response analysis, historical decomposition, and local projections model were used to identify the dynamic relationships between the variables and their dynamic effects, based on the results of the theoretical model and previous research. First, the Granger causality test demonstrated that the macroeconomic variables have causal relations with the shipping and shipbuilding industries. Second, the recursive structural vector autoregressive estimation demonstrated that the direction of the shocks from macroeconomic variables is statistically significantly, consistent with the theoretical model. The same results were found in the recursive structural vector autoregressive model and local projection impulse response analysis. Finally, the historical decomposition identified the main causal variables affecting the shipping and shipbuilding industries by period. These findings can help policymakers, operators of shipping and shipbuilding companies, and investors evaluate and make policy-supporting decisions on industry conditions.