Financial stability and supervisory cooperation (SSM in Eurozone – Banking supervisory cooperation in Egypt)

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the impact of cooperation between banking supervisory entities on maintaining financial stability, using Single Supervisory Mechanism evolution and performance as instance. Then banking supervisory cooperation and financial stability in Egypt are reviewed.Design/methodology/approachThe qualitative method is used to study and analyze the practices that contributed to financial instability and raised the need for supervisory cooperation. Descriptive qualitative method is used to study the interrelations between supervisory authorities on various levels and its impact on financial stability.FindingsFindings show that maintaining financial stability through strong, consistent complete or semi unified supervisory framework faces challenges. Providing cooperation between different supervisory authorities, effective information sharing, gained experience in the long run contributes to financial stability.Originality/valueThe originality of this research paper arises from the fact that it encompasses the academic aspect through interpreting the developments that occurred to the cooperation in banking supervision in relation to the financial instability times in the Eurozone that led to the establishment of Single Supervisory mechanism, and the challenges it faced. The supervisory cooperation in Egypt is studied as well at international, regional levels and its role in contributing to financial stability. To the best of the authors' knowledge this is the first study that studies the banking supervisory cooperation between Egyptian supervisory authorities and other international and regional authorities.

Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

The impact of education to the transition from unemployment to employment in Egypt

PurposeThis paper aims to identify the level of contribution of different levels of education to remaining in unemployment as well as the transition from unemployment to employment in Egypt.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, transition probabilities matrix differentiated by gender, age groups, educational levels, marital status and place of residence based on worker flows across employment, unemployment and out of labor force states during the period 2012–2018 using Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey of 2018. The results point to the highly static nature of the Egyptian labor market. Employment and the out of labor force states are the least mobile among labor market states. This is because employment state is very desirable and the out of labor force is the largest labor market states, especially for females. Also, this study examines the impact of different educational levels separately on remaining in unemployment and transition from unemployment to employment state using eight binary logistic regression models.FindingsThe main results of transitions from unemployment to employment are relatively large for males, elder-age, uneducated workers as well as workers who are not married and urban residents, and the results of the logistic regression models consistent with the transition probabilities matrix results, except for few cases. Based on the above findings, there is enough evidence to accept the null hypothesis that no education has a positive significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment, while less than intermediate as well as higher education have a negative significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment.Originality/valueThis paper proposes to address the problem of the unemployment among highly educated which is much higher compared with illiterates and try to understand the impact of different levels of education separately on the transition from unemployment to employment, to help the policymakers to eradicate the gap between education and the demand of the labor market in Egypt.

How can tax compliance be incentivized? An experimental examination of voice and empathy

PurposeTax evasion is an economic crime that nearly all world countries suffer from. Its consequences are countless, including poor public spending on infrastructure projects and social welfare programs, low economic growth and development, institutional mistrust and fiscal deficits. For developing countries in particular, targeting development programs and infrastructural investments requires an efficient tax collection policy to generate sufficient funds for such purposes. This makes the tax evasion problem a critical one and countering it extremely policy relevant. Based on evidence that shows how the understanding of taxpayers' behavior is an essential factor in fighting evasion, this paper aims to test different factors that might incentivize citizens using a behavioral and experimental approach, in non-Western educated industrialized rich democracies (non-WEIRD) countries, to comply more.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a survey experiment to examine the impact of different behavioral primes on tax compliance behavior. Specifically, it observes subjects' compliance behavior in two contexts: voice and empathy. A total of 273 students from a big public university in Egypt were randomly selected to participate in this study.FindingsIn the “Voice” treatment, the explanatory variable (VOICE) was found statistically significant, thus confirming the hypothesis that democracy, through having a voice in the decision-making process, affects compliance positively. As for the “Empathy” treatment, the explanatory variable (EMPATHY) was also found significant. This confirms the second hypothesis that triggering feelings of empathy, through highlighting the good cause behind public spending that uses taxpayers' money, affects compliance behavior positively.Research limitations/implicationsDespite the fact that the experimental methodology is a methodology with high internal validity, examining the impact of a specific intervention on behavior, a replication of the experiment in other contexts might be useful in increasing the external validity of the findings. Specifically, conducting this experiment on a nonstudent sample might lead to even more powerful results by increasing the ecological validity of the results.Practical implicationsThis study advocates a more behaviorally informed public policy. Specifically, Egyptian policymakers are recommended to adopt behavioral nudges as a complement to existing policies. The authors believe the findings, if confirmed by repeated experiments (lab, lab-in-the-field and rational choice theories on both student and non-student samples) in a number of Arab countries, might also help in offering cost-effective nudges for the Arab world policymakers, where culture and the political context are to a great extent similar.Social implicationsThe findings of the study have a number of social implications. Higher tax compliance will enable higher levels of public spending on a number of social targets such as education, health and welfare programs.Originality/valueWhile the study builds on recent research examining how to incentivize tax compliance, it simultaneously seeks to make three contributions. First, the study design aims to apply recent advances in behavioral sciences (impact of voice and empathy) in a policy area that has not seen much use of such interventions in the Egyptian context (i.e. tax compliance). Second, the study is policy relevant in the sense that it aims to increase the effectiveness of existing government policies by complementing them with behavioral primes. Third, there is nearly no literature found applying this topic in a non-WEIRD country such as Egypt.

Assessing the use of the moving window approaches when monitoring social networks using a degree corrected stochastic block model

PurposeThis study aims to assess the effect of updating the Phase I data – to enhance the parameters' estimates – on the control charts' detection power designed to monitor social networks.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic version of the degree corrected stochastic block model (DCSBM) is used to model the network. Both the Shewhart and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts are used to monitor the model parameters. A performance comparison is conducted for each chart when designed using both fixed and moving windows of networks.FindingsOur results show that continuously updating the parameters' estimates during the monitoring phase delays the Shewhart chart's detection of networks' anomalies; as compared to the fixed window approach. While the EWMA chart performance is either indifferent or worse, based on the updating technique, as compared to the fixed window approach. Generally, the EWMA chart performs uniformly better than the Shewhart chart for all shift sizes. We recommend the use of the EWMA chart when monitoring networks modeled with the DCSBM, with sufficiently small to moderate fixed window size to estimate the unknown model parameters.Originality/valueThis study shows that the excessive recommendations in literature regarding the continuous updating of Phase I data during the monitoring phase to enhance the control chart performance cannot generally be extended to social network monitoring; especially when using the DCSBM. That is to say, the effect of continuously updating the parameters' estimates highly depends on the nature of the process being monitored.

Assessing fiscal sustainability in Egypt: a comparative study

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the fiscal sustainability in Egypt during the period 1990–2018 using deficit accounts (DA) approach. It also tries to investigate the possibility of applying generational accounts (GA) in Egypt as a new approach to assess fiscal sustainability.Design/methodology/approachThis paper tries to assess fiscal sustainability in Egypt during 1990–2018 using DA and GA approaches. DA approach includes primary deficit indicator, tax gap indicator, augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test for debt/GDP ratio and Johansen co-integration test between government revenues and expenditures. However, concerning the possibility of applying GA in Egypt, field study form was designed including specific questions to academic and executive economic experts to investigate if it is possible to apply GA in Egypt.FindingsThe empirical findings of the field study indicate that Egypt witnessed fiscal sustainability during the period 1990–2018 using DA. On the other hand, there are various obstacles, including administrative, technical, legal and political obstacles which hinder Egypt from applying GA to assess fiscal sustainability.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper assesses fiscal sustainability in Egypt using DA for a longer and updated time series within 1990–2018. In addition, it is the first paper to examine the possibility of assessing fiscal sustainability using GA approach in Egypt.

Explaining presidential instability in Latin America: evidence from Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador

PurposeThis study attempts to figure out the factors that contributed to deposing certain elected presidents before the end of their constitutional terms, alongside tracing the new political context that prevailed in Latin America since 1978 and its impact on direct political participation and military behavior during presidential crises.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses the comparative method to investigate the causes of presidential instability in three case studies.FindingsThe likelihood of presidential instability increases when a president enacts austerity economic policies that marginalize large sectors of the citizenry, becomes implicated in acts of corruption and develops a hostile relationship with members of the ruling coalition.Originality/valueThis study integrates the social movement theory with analytical perspectives from parliamentary behavior to explain presidential instability. It attempts to investigate the dynamics of interaction between the acts of furious citizens and disloyal legislators through the in-depth analysis of three case studies.

Do operational risk and corporate governance affect the banking industry of Pakistan?

PurposeDue to increase in operational risk, banks are facing huge losses. In order to avoid losses, banks need to manage operational risk. This study aims to analyze the impact of operational risk management (ORM) processes, which include identification, assessment, analysis, monitoring and control in the presence of corporate governance (CG) that can also contribute to effective ORM practices.Design/methodology/approachOperational risk management processes are used to manage operational risk along with CG. Primary data are collected through questionnaire from (167) operational risk managers of commercial banks. Multiple linear regressions has been run to analyze the data.FindingsResults indicate significant impact of CG and operational risk identification (ORI), monitoring and control on ORM practices in commercial banks of Pakistan.Originality/valueThe study suggests policy makers to improve the ORM framework by CG. Beside this, in order to lessen operational risk, proper identification, monitoring and control of operational risk could also contribute.

Small–medium enterprise formation and Nigerian economic growth

PurposeThis study examines the nexus between entrepreneurship through small–medium enterprise (SME) business formation and the growth of the Nigerian economy. Furthermore, this paper seeks to explore the link between small enterprise development and econo.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focused on secondary data for the period 1990–2016 for macro parameters including, registered small and medium scale enterprise, nominal gross domestic product, employment, total labor force and population. Forecasting technique was applied to obtain data for missing trends. Quantitative analytical techniques used include the dynamic method of the error correction model (ECM) and Johansen co-integration test for a long-run correlation.FindingsThe result shows an increasing number of SME formation which has also led to the growth of the economy. However, an increase in the amount of micro-small and medium scale enterprises did not contribute to the development of the economy more than existing businesses. The employment elasticity is positive and significant and shows that the contribution of entrepreneurship regarding employment is the most essential factor that advances economic growth and reduction of unemployment.Originality/valueThe paper examines how the persistent increase in small and medium enterprise formation improves the growth and development of the Nigerian economy, employing the ECM approach.

China drive toward Africa between arguments of neo-colonialism and mutual-beneficial relationship: Egypt as a case study

PurposeThe main purpose of the paper is to examine the truth behind allegations of neo-colonialism performed by China toward Africa, which was raised due to the growing relationship between China and Africa that enhanced the debate between supporters of the notion of neo-colonialism or mutual beneficial relationship. In addition to the growing number of arguments are on the dominance of PRC in Africa over the western powers as European Union or United States in the Continent.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the claims of neo-colonialism practiced by China toward Africa through the lenses of international political economy using the Interdependence theory of neoliberalists. Egypt was selected as a case study due to the emphases that Egypt gives to China as a strategic partner and as rising economic power as well as representing a way of diversifying Egypt's foreign policy and an additional economic partner beside the western ones. The research relied on two interwoven indicators to investigate the main argument: Trade and Development Aid.FindingsThe two pillars of analysis indicate that the growing relationship between Egypt and China is a form of interdependent relationship that is expected to get further complex in the future, which is relatively indicated among other things in the synergy Egypt has made between its Vision 2030 and China's Belt and Road Initiative. In reference to development aid, China uses different techniques that is not commonly used by the donors of Official Development Assistance (“ODA”), and due to unpublished actual data on China's aid figures, any indication of dominance is hard to attain regardless a solo incident of debt trap in Africa, the model of China's aid is provided through low-interest loans for development projects that is highly important for developing countries.Originality/valueThe paper tried to engage in the ongoing debate and examine the truth behind the neo-colonial allegations from the perspective of international political economy, which is an added value to the literature in this regard as the data provided are prepared for the present research purpose.