Index correlation: implications for asset allocation

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (11) ◽  
pp. 1236-1256
Author(s):  
Allen Michel ◽  
Jacob Oded ◽  
Israel Shaked
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shape Distribution ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Equity Indices

Purpose – The cornerstone of Modern Portfolio Theory with implications for many aspects of corporate finance is that reduced correlation among assets and reduced standard deviation are key elements in portfolio risk reduction. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the conditional correlation and standard deviation of a broad set of indices with the S & P 500 conditioned on market performance. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examined volatility and correlation for a set of indices for a 19-year period based on weekly data from July 2, 1993 to June 30, 2012. These included the NASDAQ, MSCI EAFE, Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 1000 Value, Gold, MSCI EM and Dow Jones UBS Commodity. The data for the Wilshire US REIT, Barclays Multiverse, Multiverse 1-3, Multiverse 3-5 and Multiverse 10+ became available starting July 2, 2002. For these indices the authors used weekly data from July 1, 2002 through June 30, 2012. For the iBarclays TIPS, the authors used weekly data from the time of availability, namely, for the period December 12, 2003 through June 29, 2012. Findings – The findings demonstrate that both the conditional correlations and standard deviations vary as a function of market performance. Moreover, the authors obtain a U-shape distribution of correlations conditioned on market performance for equity indices, such as NASDAQ, as well as for the Wilshire REIT. Namely, correlations tend to be high when market returns are at low or high extremes. For more typical market performance, correlations tend to be low. A modified U-shape is found for bond indices and the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index. Interestingly, the correlation between gold and the S & P 500 is unrelated to the return on the S & P. Originality/value – While it has been observed that asset classes move together, this paper is the first to systematically analyze the nature of these asset class correlations.

PRIX – A risk index for global private investors

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Stöckl ◽  
Michael Hanke ◽  
Martin Angerer
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Dynamic Asset Allocation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Investor ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Private Investors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to create a universal (asset-class-independent) portfolio risk index for a global private investor. Design/methodology/approach The authors first discuss existing risk measures and desirable properties of a risk index. Then, they construct a universal (asset-class-independent) portfolio risk measure by modifying Financial Turbulence of Kritzman and Li (2010). Finally, the average portfolio of a representative global private investor is determined, and, by applying the new portfolio risk measure, they derive the Private investor Risk IndeX. Findings The authors show that this index exhibits commonly expected properties of risk indices, such as proper reaction to well-known historical market events, persistence in time and forecasting power for both risk and returns to risk. Practical implications A dynamic asset allocation example illustrates one potential practical application for global private investors. Originality/value As of now, a risk index reflecting the overall risk of a typical multi-asset-class portfolio of global private investors does not seem to exist.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility, oil price return and COVID-19 cases on the stock market returns and volatility for selected emerging market economies. Additionally, this study compares the market performance in the emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-COVID and global financial crisis (GFC) period. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the arbitrage pricing theory to model the risk-return relationship between the risk-based factors (exchange rate volatility and COVID-19 cases) and stock market returns. By applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the study captures the asymmetric volatility spillover from the stock markets to foreign exchange markets and vice versa. Findings Findings reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative and significant effect on the market returns in Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (S&P CLX IPSA), India (SENSEX), Mexico (S&P BMV IPC) and Russia (MOEX) during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding the effect of oil price returns, the authors find a positive relationship between oil price and stock market returns across all the economies in the study. The market returns of Russia, India, Brazil and Peru appeared more volatile during the pandemic than the GFC period. Practical implications As the exchange rate volatility is causing higher risk and uncertainty in the stock market’s performance, the central bank’s effort to maintain a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate sale can be proven crucial for the economies under consideration. Emphasized should also be given to boost investors’ confidence in the stock market, and for this, the government policy actions in reducing the transmission of the disease are the need of the hour. Originality/value While a large volume of literature on stock market performance in times of COVID-19 has emerged from developed economies, this study adds to the literature by exploring the emerging economies’ stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous literature, this study examines the volatility spillover between stock and exchange rate markets in the worst affected emerging economies during the crisis.

Asset Allocation vs. Factor Allocation—Can We Build a Unified Method?

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Intuitive Appeal ◽  
Optimal Allocations ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Unified Method

There is increasing interest in the idea of allocating across factors instead of across traditional asset classes. Allocating across factors has the intuitive appeal of allocating across building blocks that are in theory purer sources of return. In practice, factor-based allocation is not easy: Factors are unobservable and must be specified. However, the authors believe there is merit in integrating insights from factors with traditional asset allocation. Information and views about factors and asset classes can be a powerful combination. In this article, the authors present a framework for combining the two paradigms in an innovative way, resulting in optimal allocations that blend insights from both paradigms. Specifically, their approach derives asset class return prediction from factor-based asset allocation, which allows construction of portfolios for various investment objectives from a unified framework.

Landmark buildings and diversification opportunities in the residential market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Gibilaro ◽  
Gianluca Mattarocci
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Diversification Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Good Investment ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Housing Investments

Purpose This article aims to analyze the performance and risk of landmark building in the housing sector and to evaluate their usefulness for a diversification strategy. Design/methodology/approach After comparing summary statistics on the performance of landmark building with respect to other types of housing investments, the article evaluates their usefulness for a diversification strategy. The role of landmark buildings is studied using the modern portfolio theory and evaluating the role of this type of asset in the optimal asset allocation. The analysis is performed considering both the risk/return trade-off in a one-year and a multiple-year time horizon. Findings The results show that a landmark building can be a good investment opportunity, especially for high-risk/return investors. A not perfect correlation of the returns of this asset class with other types of housing investments implies the existence of a minimum investment in this asset class for almost all portfolios on the efficient frontier. Results are robust with respect to the length of the investment time horizon. Originality/value The article presents a unique analysis of intra-housing market diversification opportunities focusing on the role of landmark building in the portfolio construction. Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that real estate investors can take advantage of investing in landmark buildings in the residential sector as well because there are no reasons to limit such investments to trophy buildings in the office and commercial sectors.

Bitcoin as a new asset class

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asheer Jaywant Ram
Keyword(s):  
Developed Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Economic Profile ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Sharpe Ratios ◽  
Market Capitalisation ◽  
Class Nature ◽  
Alternative Investment

Purpose Bitcoin is the best-known cryptocurrency which currently holds the largest market capitalisation and is regarded as a standard example of a cryptocurrency. There is, however, no consensus as to the nature of the Bitcoin. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether Bitcoin represents a new asset class by building on prior research. Design/methodology/approach The prior literature on asset classes is explored in detail and then applied to the Bitcoin. Four key criteria of asset classes are discussed, namely, investability, politico-economic profile, correlation of returns and risk-reward profile. Statistical techniques are used to inform the conclusions for the third and fourth criteria. Findings This research finds that the Bitcoin represents a distinct alternative investment and asset class. There are significant opportunities for investment. The politico-economic profile of the decentralised and consensus-based Bitcoin is dissimilar to other asset classes. The Bitcoin shares little or no correlation with other asset classes. Using Sharpe Ratios, it is shown that the Bitcoin provides risk-adjusted returns over and above most asset classes. Research limitations/implications The aim of this research is to present a normative exploration into the asset class nature of the Bitcoin and, as a result, the aim is not to create positivist generalisable conclusions. This paper does not address cryptocurrencies, other than Bitcoin and does not constitute a detailed manual on modern portfolio theory. Originality/value This research adds to finance paradigm research on the Bitcoin by including a developing country perspective on Bitcoin as an asset class as prior studies have concentrated on developed country settings. Further, this research introduces recent economic data (2014 to 2017) in the form of daily observations to enhance prior understanding. It is important to understand if the Bitcoin represents an alternative investment and new asset class as this may affect investment decisions.

Using VIX to Dynamically Hedge Portfolio Risk

GIS Business ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Richard Cloutier
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Dynamic Hedging ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Tactical Asset Allocation ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Timing Strategies

Many investors accept buy and hold as their long-term investment strategy. However, during periods of heightened risk, staying disciplined can be problematic. Alternatively, market timing appeals to our emotions but is very difficult to employ successfully. Between these two extremes lies tactical asset allocation, where limited variances are allowed to take advantage of market conditions. Dynamic hedging is a form of tactical asset allocation. Instead of relying on future predictions of asset class returns, dynamic hedging strives to reduce portfolio risk when market risk is elevated. This paper presents a dynamic hedging strategy developed to accomplish this goal. It uses VIXs normal trading range to assess market risk. When VIX trades above its normal trading range and the upper Bollinger band, the dynamic hedging strategy is applied. The result is that portfolio risk is lowered when market risk is extreme. The application of this strategy provides better returns, lower volatility, and better downside protection than a strategic buy and hold allocation. It also avoids the deployment problems associated with market timing strategies.

The emergence of Spanish REITs

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 495-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri Marzuki ◽  
Graeme Newell
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Asset Portfolio

PurposeSpanish real estate investment trusts (REITs) emerged as an important and rapidly expanding property investment vehicle, against the backdrop of improving Spain macro-economic fundamentals and commercial property market. This sees Spanish REITs being the 3rd largest REIT market in Europe, offering access to important Iberian and European property assets, with the added benefits of transparency, governance and liquidity. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio over August 2014–February 2018.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification potential of Spanish REITs over August 2014–February 2018 are assessed. Asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio.FindingsSpanish REITs delivered strong risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks over August 2014–February 2018, but with limited portfolio diversification benefits. Compared to bonds, Spanish REITs offered competitive risk-adjusted returns and excellent diversification benefits. Importantly, this sees Spanish REITs as strongly contributing to the Spanish mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum.Practical implicationsThe 2012 Spanish REIT regulatory changes have been pivotal in providing a supportive environment for Spanish REITs’ growth. Spanish REITs are now a significant market in a European context. The results highlight the major role of Spanish REITs in a Spanish mixed-asset portfolio. The strong risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs compared to stocks sees Spanish REITs contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum. This is particularly important, as an increasing number of investors have utilised Spanish REITs to obtain their property exposure in a liquid format in recent years.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs, and the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of Spanish REITs in a portfolio.

A global investment opportunity in non-listed infrastructure for institutional investors

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri Marzuki ◽  
Graeme Newell
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Smoothing Effects ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Asset Classes

PurposeInfrastructure investment is one of the few high-calibre real alternative assets with a strong prominence in the portfolios of institutional investors, especially those with a liability-driven investment strategy. This has seen increased institutional investor interest in infrastructure for reasons such as diversification benefits and inflation hedging abilities, resulting in the substantial growth in non-listed and listed investment products offering access to the infrastructure asset class, and complementing the existing route via direct investment. This paper aims to assess the investment attributes of non-listed infrastructure over Q3:2008–Q2:2019, compared with other global listed assets of infrastructure, property, stocks and bonds.Design/methodology/approachQuarterly total returns were derived from the valuation-based MSCI global non-listed quarterly infrastructure asset index over Q2:2008–Q:2019, which were then filtered to decrease the valuation smoothing effects. A similar set of returns data was also collected for the other global asset classes. The average annual return, annual risk, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits for non-listed infrastructure and other asset investment classes were then computed and compared. Lastly, a constrained optimal asset allocation analysis was performed to validate the performance enhancement role of global non-listed infrastructure in a mixed-asset investment framework.FindingsGlobal non-listed infrastructure delivered the strongest average annual total return performance, outperforming the other asset classes and provided investors with total returns that linked strongly with inflation. Global non-listed infrastructure also provided investors with one of the least volatile investment returns because of its ability to ensure predictable total returns delivery. This means that on the Sharpe ratio risk-adjusted return basis, non-listed infrastructure was also the strongest performing asset. This performance was also delivered with significant portfolio diversification benefits with all assets, resulting in non-listed infrastructure contributing to the mixed-asset portfolios across the entire portfolio risk spectrum.Practical implicationsAside from better risk-return trade-offs, institutional investors are getting more secular with their portfolios for alternative assets that are able to provide other investment benefits such as predictable long-term performance and inflation-linked returns. A further improvement in performance and diversification benefits could be achieved by enriching existing investment portfolios with real alternative assets, one of which is the infrastructure asset class. For institutional investors, having exposure to and being part of the development, delivery and management of infrastructure assets are important, as they are one of the few real assets having considerable significance in the context of society, economy and investment needs.Originality/valueThis is the first research paper that empirically investigates the investment attributes of the non-listed infrastructure at a global level. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical decision-making by institutional investors in the infrastructure asset class, especially via the non-listed pathway. The ultimate aim of this paper is to empirically validate the strategic role of non-listed infrastructure as an important alternative asset in the institutional real asset investment space, as well as in the overall portfolio context.

The real alternative? A comparison of German real estate returns with bonds and stocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikodem Szumilo ◽  
Thomas Wiegelmann ◽  
Edyta Łaszkiewicz ◽  
Michal Bernard Pietrzak ◽  
Adam P. Balcerzak
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Direct Evaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Returns ◽  
Asset Classes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate how real estate returns behaved over the last two decades in relation to the other two asset types. This allows a direct evaluation of how investors make allocation choices and perceive risks and rewards offered by properties in the context of changing market conditions. Design/methodology/approach A de-smoothed MSCI index is used to reflect direct property returns and control for both income and capital returns within it. Indirect property returns are approximated by the RX Real Estate index. By supplementing this data with an analysis of trends in both space and capital markets it is possible to relate investor behavior to events affecting other assets. Findings It is possible to identify three distinctive periods characterized by different correlation of returns and behavior of investors: before the crisis of 2008, the crisis period between 2008 and 2012 and recovery afterwards. These appear to have corresponded to different stages of the economic cycle. Interestingly, performance of asset classes has also differed over that period suggesting that at different points in the cycle asset allocation decisions may have been made differently. Practical implications It appears that as investments over the last 15 years real assets in Germany behaved similarly to bonds. It is possible that this phenomenon was driven by an aversion to the stock market and its associated risk which became a concern after the financial crisis of 2008. Over the downturn that followed the market shock investors appear to have turned to assets with simpler risk profiles like direct real estate and government debt. On the other hand, the correlation between direct property investment index and stock returns has been found to be small but negative. This shows not only that the two asset classes were often driven by different factors but also suggests that diversification was, at least theoretically, possible. Originality/value Direct real estate investment returns have repeatedly been found to exhibit characteristics similar to those found in bond as well as equity markets (Eichholtz and Hartzell, 1996; Clayton and MacKinnon, 2003) but little research examines the correlation between returns offered by those asset classes in a mature financial and property market. In addition, the recent financial crisis provided a dynamically changing investment which is ideal for investigating structural relationships between assets.

The emergence and performance of German REITs

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Newell ◽  
Muhammad Jufri Marzuki
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Asset Portfolio

Purpose German real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a small but important property investment vehicle in the European REIT landscape, offering German commercial property investment exposure in a liquid format, compared to the more property development-focused German listed property companies and the popular German open-ended property funds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the emergence of the German REIT market and the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of German REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2007-2015. The post-global financial crisis (GFC) recovery of German REITs is highlighted. Enabling strategies for the ongoing development of the German REIT market are also identified. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of German REITs over 2007-2015 are assessed. Efficient frontier and asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of German REITs (and German property companies) in a mixed-asset portfolio. Sub-period analysis is used to assess the post-GFC recovery of German REITs. Findings German REITs delivered lesser risk-adjusted returns compared to German stocks over 2007-2015, with limited portfolio diversification benefits. However, since the GFC, German REITs have delivered strong risk-adjusted returns, but with continued limited portfolio diversification benefits with German stocks. German REITs also out-performed German property companies. Importantly, this sees German REITs as strongly contributing to the German mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum in the post-GFC environment. Practical implications German REITs are a small but important market at a local, European and global REIT level. The results highlight the major role of German REITs in a German mixed-asset portfolio in the post-GFC context. The strong risk-adjusted performance of German REITs compared to German stocks sees German REITs contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum. This is particularly important, as many investors (e.g. small pension funds) use German REITs (and German listed property companies) to obtain their German property exposure in a liquid format, as well as the increased importance of blended property portfolios of listed property and direct property. Originality/value This paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of German REITs, and the role of German REITs as a listed property vehicle in a mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision making regarding the strategic role of German REITs in a portfolio.

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