THE SEARCH FOR TIME-SERIES PREDICTABILITY-BASED ANOMALIES

This paper introduces a new algorithm for exploiting time-series predictability-based patterns to obtain an abnormal return, or alpha, with respect to a given benchmark asset pricing model. The algorithm proposes a deterministic daily market timing strategy that decides between being fully invested in a risky asset or in a risk-free asset, with the trading rule represented by a parametric perceptron. The optimal parameters are sought in-sample via differential evolution to directly maximize the alpha. Successively using two modern asset pricing models and two different portfolio weighting schemes, the algorithm was able to discover an undocumented anomaly in the United States stock market cross-section, both out-of-sample and using small transaction costs. The new algorithm represents a simple and flexible alternative to technical analysis and forecast-based trading rules, neither of which necessarily maximizes the alpha. This new algorithm was inspired by recent insights into representing reinforcement learning as evolutionary computation.

Non-linearity in Equity Market Timing: Empirical Evidence From the UK

This paper empirically tests the market timing theory to prove that issuing behavior of managers is non-linear. Consistent with the literature we show that mangers increase use of equity to finance their deficit when equities are overvalued and resort to a higher proportion of debt when equities are undervalued. Our results further suggest that mangers however exhibit a distinctive pattern when timing the market. The increase in reliance on equity to finance their deficit during periods of equity overvaluation is non-linear and only significant when the degree of overvaluation is not excessive. Furthermore, during periods of undervaluation managers resort to higher levels of leverage to finance their deficit only when undervaluation levels are excessive. This has serious implications on the ability of the equity market timing as a stand-alone theory in explaining capital structure decisions and poses some interesting implications on the debt-equity choice question when financing the deficit.

Marketing Fed Cattle Based on Expectations of the Underlying Carcass Value Dynamics

Fed cattle profitability is determined by complicated dynamic processes of body growth, carcass development, and seasonal prices. A structural model is constructed to contend with all these dynamic processes to predict optimal market timing. Informed simulations are conducted and compared to those observed in the data, as well as to a previous model ignoring the evolution of carcass value. The results indicate that significant improvements to profitability are attainable with the new method. The results also indicate the opportunity cost of not accounting for carcass value, even with error, is more severe than when these dynamics are ignored.

Effect of Institutional Ownership on Financial Performance in Kenya: Moderated Mediation Role of Capital Structure and Corporate Diversification

Purpose: The study aimed at examining the moderating effect of capital structure in the indirect relationship between institutional ownership and financial performance through corporate diversification of listed firms at the Nairobi securities in Kenya. Approach/Methodology/Design: Post positivist research paradigm and explanatory research design guided the study in which 35 listed firms from 2003 to 2017 were included. Findings: There was a significant interaction effect between capital structure and institutional ownership on financial performance through corporate diversification. The study extended market power theory by examining institutional ownership structure given that corporate diversification is not only a source of power to drive a firm’s performance. Practical Implications: Institutional investors provide equity capital that is collaborated with the firm’s capital structure. As a result, there exist sufficient resources to take on diversification strategy despite this translating to a smaller amount in terms of financial performance. The study had implications on Market timing theory which opines that market timing is a ‘first order determinant’ to aid in selecting a suitable form of financing given debt and equity. Ideally, the preferences of different owners in the firm would affect the choice between debt and equity financing. Originality/value: Investigation of the interaction effect between capital structure and institutional ownership on financial performance through corporate diversification.

O FINANCIAMENTO DAS EMPRESAS BRASILEIRAS À LUZ DAS TEORIAS PECKING ORDER E MARKET TIMING: EVIDÊNCIAS DA REGIONALIDADE

Objetivo: Este estudo tem como objetivo compreender como os fatores macroeconômicos e as características das firmas impactam na definição da estrutura de capital das empresas brasileiras, tendo em vista o contexto regional. Método: O estudo envolveu 426 empresas brasileiras, não financeiras, listadas na B3 durante o período de 2007 a 2017. Na perspectiva interna, foram utilizadas as variáveis liquidez, ROE, tangibilidade e tamanho, enquanto, na abordagem externa, as variáveis PIB, inflação e a identificação dos períodos de crise, representados pelos anos 2008 e 2015. Resultados: Os resultados evidenciaram que a maioria das organizações está situada nas regiões sudeste e sul (86%), sendo o controle pelas regiões um fator importante na tomada de decisão a respeito do financiamento das empresas. Além disso, foi corroborada a teoria Pecking Order, no que tange às características das firmas, uma vez que as empresas tendem a priorizar a utilização de recursos internos ao de terceiros, especialmente em momentos de recessão econômica, quando há maior impacto nos lucros empresariais. No entanto, não foi ratificada a teoria Market Timing, o que sugere que as empresas não tendem a observar as janelas de oportunidade para a emissão dos títulos. Contribuições: É relevante investigar como as decisões de financiamento das empresas são impactadas por questões que vão além das características das firmas, isto é, como elas sofrem a influência do ambiente no qual estão inseridas, sobretudo no que tange aos fatores macroeconômicos e ao contexto regional. Desse modo, entende-se que esta pesquisa avança na literatura não só por abranger os fatores externos, mas também por considerar as diferenças regionais do Brasil.

The Equilibrium Consequences of Indexing

We develop a benchmark model to study the equilibrium consequences of indexing in a standard rational expectations setting. Individuals incur costs to participate in financial markets, and these costs are lower for individuals who restrict themselves to indexing. A decline in indexing costs directly increases the prevalence of indexing, thereby reducing the price efficiency of the index and augmenting relative price efficiency. In equilibrium, these changes in price efficiency in turn further increase indexing, and raise the welfare of uninformed traders. For well-informed traders, the share of trading gains stemming from market timing increases relative to stock selection trades.