Export diversification augurs well for Europe's growth

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db198235 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Content Type ◽

Long Run ◽

Area Growth ◽

Growth Prospects

Subject The diversification and quality of European exports. Significance For all the gloom about Europe's economy, one fact stands out: the continent is a proficient exporter. This is not just true of Germany, the biggest exporter in Europe and the world's third-largest exporter overall. Half of the world's top-ten exporters are European. Impacts Export prowess suggests Europe's long-run growth prospects remain good. This finding is independent of the currency fortunes of individual members or the region. This supports a more bullish view on the euro-area growth prospects than currently foreseen.

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Unrest will complicate Macron’s reform agenda

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db240965 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Economic Reforms ◽

Content Type ◽

Reform Agenda ◽

High Ranking ◽

Area Growth ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

High Ranking Official ◽

Ability To Drive

Significance Fort will be the eighth high-ranking official to resign since Macron took office in 2017. This will raise further doubts over the credibility of Macron’s presidency and reform agenda. Impacts As the euro-area’s second-largest economy, France threatens euro-area growth prospects. Failure to control France’s budget deficit will result in conflict with Brussels. Such economic concerns will reduce Macron’s ability to drive EU political and economic reforms.

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Lower PMIs will not affect euro-area growth prospects

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-es199133 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Content Type ◽

Area Growth ◽

Growth Prospects

Headline EURO-AREA: Lower PMIs will not affect growth prospects

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EU infrastructure plan could reinforce ECB policy

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db197445 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Fund Raising ◽

Investment Bank ◽

Content Type ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Commission President ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

European Investment

Subject Outlook for infrastructure spending. Significance European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a 315 billion euro (340 billion dollar) infrastructure initiative to revive the EU economy, expected to reinforce ongoing monetary policy efforts to boost growth. Fund raising is progressing through the European Investment Bank (EIB). The programme can benefit both short-term and long-term growth prospects, while its actual impact will depend on the projects implemented, as politically motivated choices can delay, distort and depress the benefits. This plan comes late, six years after the global financial crisis; one of its priorities is generating rapid results to boost the economic recovery. Impacts To have a net positive impact, any infrastructure proposal would have to avoid drawing funds away from existing investment plans. The plan could help reducing disparities between labour markets in different euro-area countries. Persistently high euro-area unemployment will need a domestic demand revival to boost sentiment, growth and job creation.

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Prospects for the global economy to end-2016

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db211416 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Emerging Economies ◽

Global Economy ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Content Type ◽

Area Growth ◽

Recent Trends ◽

Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2016. Significance Global growth could accelerate in the second half of 2016. Some emerging economies are facing better conditions thanks to the weaker dollar and some rebound in commodity prices, while others remain in recession. US growth slowed in the first quarter, while Japan's government just avoided a relapse into recession. Euro-area growth is robust compared to its recent trends, but cannot be relied upon to provide much support for the rest of the global economy.

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Euro-area potential GDP will stay on low trajectory

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db207217 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Productive Capacity ◽

Potential Growth ◽

Average Growth ◽

Content Type ◽

Us Economy ◽

Long Run ◽

Permanent Loss ◽

Potential Gdp ◽

The Impact

Subject Declining potential growth trends. Significance Although the euro-area is enjoying stronger growth this year, the rebound has been modest. Real GDP growth should average 1.5-1.7% in 2015, disappointing hopes for growth closer to 2.0%. This is adding to concern about the impact of persistent investment weakness, which curbs potential growth. Over 2010-14, the US economy grew by 2.2% on average, the same as during the five years preceding the financial crisis (2004-08), although both periods are mediocre compared to the long-run average of 3.0% for the 15 years prior to 2009. The euro-area's double-dip recession depressed its 2010-14 average growth to 0.7% compared with a rate of 2.2% for both 2004-08 and the 15 years prior to 2009. Impacts Chronic lack of job opportunities can lead to a permanent loss in productive capacity, damaging consumer confidence and spending. Policymakers will need to promote investment and job creation, lowering the cost of capital and reforming labour markets. These reforms could stir political instability by fuelling social resentment and political populism.

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Prospects for the euro-area in 2020

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db249096 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Supply Chains ◽

Eastern Europe ◽

Euro Area ◽

Central And Eastern Europe ◽

Social Economic ◽

Member States ◽

Content Type ◽

Area Growth ◽

Main Factors ◽

Export Industries

Subject Prospects for the euro-area in 2020. Significance The main factors that could weaken euro-area growth in 2020 include further damage to Germany’s export industries, which would hit the extensive supply chains and jobs across many smaller and less resilient member states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as specific social, economic and political challenges in individual countries.

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Euro-area GDP growth will slow in 2019

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db241892 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Euro Area ◽

Balance Sheet ◽

Lower Growth ◽

Content Type ◽

Large Size ◽

Area Growth ◽

Risks Assessment ◽

European Parliament Elections ◽

The Impact

Subject Reasons behind the euro-area growth slowdown. Significance In its Winter 2019 interim forecasts, the European Commission downgraded its expectations for euro-area growth to 1.3% and 1.6% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from 1.9% and 1.7% three months earlier. At its January meeting, the ECB Governing Council foreshadowed lower growth, shifting its risks assessment, saying that downside risks will dominate. Impacts The European Parliament elections could have a destabilising impact on growth in some countries. Monetary policy can do nothing to cushion the impact of lower growth caused by trade conflict. In case of recession, monetary policy stimulus will be constrained by the large size of the ECB balance sheet.

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